Seat Projection: Insights West British Columbia Poll, May 5, 2016

Well folks, it’s been quiet on the polling front, especially with British Columbia. Insights West has done its first poll on British Columbia in six months. In November, the last time they were in the field, the NDP was leading the Liberals 39% to 34%. Following the two major parties were the Greens with 16%, the Conservatives with 7%, and Independents/others with 4%.

Not much has changed since then. The NDP have ticked up one point to 40%, the Liberals have stayed at 34%, the Greens have gone down 2 points to 14%, the Conservatives have gone up 3 points to 10%, and the Independents/others have gone down to 2%. Much of this variation on the aggregate level could very well be noise.

Last time around, my model projected 49 NDP seats, 25 Liberals, 8 Greens, and 3 Independents/others.

Here is the latest projection with my model:
Vancouver: 39% New Democratic (14 seats), 37% Liberal (9 seats), 13% Green (2 seats), 9% Conservative (0 seats), 2% Independent/Other (0 seats)
Vancouver Island: 52% New Democratic (13 seats), 22% Green (1 seat), 21% Liberal (0 seats), 5% Conservative (0 seats), 0% Independent/Other (0 seats)
Rest of BC: 35% Liberal (22 seats), 33% New Democratic (15 seats), 18% Conservative (6 seats), 13% Green (3 seats), 1% Independent/Other (0 seats)
Total: 40% New Democratic (42 seats), 34% Liberal (31 seats), 14% Green (6 seats), 10% Conservative (6 seats), 2% Independent/Other (0 seats)

Despite the relatively small changes at the aggregate, the NDP’s projected seat count has gone down to 42 out of 85, which almost certainly means a minority government (unless the Liberals can somehow cobble a coalition with Greens and Conservatives, which is unlikely). The Liberals have gone up almost the same amount (6 seats) to 31 seats, a healthy opposition caucus. The Green caucus has been projected to go down to 6 seats, but this is still miles ahead of the 1 seat they have. The Conservatives are now projected to enter the legislature, also with a 6 seat caucus. The Independents/Others are no longer projected to have any seats.

With these results in mind, one thing is clear: the NDP cannot rest on its progressive laurels in the cities. Having highly concentrated support gives it a boon in Vancouver Island, but much of it is swallowed by diminishing returns. The NDP also has to open up a wider lead in Vancouver. However, concentrating its support in urban areas is not enough – while it is unlikely they will open up a lead in rural BC, they have to keep the Liberals from taking as many seats as possible.

Conversely, the Liberals, if they wish to take a 5th term, need to break the NDP’s narrow lead in Vancouver and start racking up a lead. It might as well forget about Vancouver Island for the moment, which does not have much opportunity for seats. It also needs to definitively win in rural BC, which can at the very least deny the NDP a majority.

The Greens, if they are serious about increasing their presence, appear to be doing well. However, they need to eat into the NDP’s lead in Vancouver Island, where they have been in 2nd place and actually have a rather decent chance of getting a few seats.

The Conservatives, if they wish to get into the legislature and increase their presence, should probably forget about the cities for now. They can court those voters at another time. Right now, their goldmine is in Rural BC.

Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, April 28, 2016

A recent Forum poll showing the state of the parties in Ontario has Pat Brown’s Progressive Conservatives continuing to lose their lead.

The Progressive Conservatives have 39%, which is only 1 point down from March (40%), but it is 5 points down from February (44%). The Liberals have 34%, which is up 4 points from March (30%), and 7 points up from February (27%). The NDP have 21%, which is down 3 points from March (24%) but only down one point from February (22%). The Greens have remained at 5% the whole time.

In February, my seat projection model showed 77 Progressive Conservatives, 18 Liberals, and 12 New Democrats. In March, it showed 63 Progressive Conservatives, 26 Liberals, and 18 New Democrats.

Here is the seat projection with the current numbers:
Eastern Ontario: 43% Progressive Conservative (10 seats), 40% Liberal (4 seats), 12% New Democratic (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Toronto*: 39% Progressive Conservative (12 seats), 34% Liberal (7 seats), 21% New Democratic (3 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
905: 39% Progressive Conservative (20 seats), 32% Liberal (12 seats), 22% New Democratic (6 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Southwest Ontario: 42% Progressive Conservative (16 seats), 29% Liberal (4 seats), 21% New Democratic (2 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 37% Liberal (6 seats), 30% Progressive Conservative (3 seats), 26% New Democratic (2 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Total: 39% Progressive Conservatives (61 seats), 34% Liberal (33 seats), 21% New Democratic (13 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)

*The 416 and GTA numbers in the Forum poll were combined, since they were available to me.

With these numbers, overall the Progressive Conservatives do not lose much ground, only going down 2 seats to 61. The Liberals gain 7 seats and are now projected to get 33, which is still opposition status but improving. The NDP has gone down in the count from 18 to 13, despite having a similar popular vote total to the 2014 election.

In terms of seat count from March, the PC’s gained in Eastern Ontario and Southwest Ontario, and held steady in Toronto, and declined in the 905 (a PC stronghold) and Northern Ontario. The Liberals gained in Southwest Ontario, the 905 and Northern Ontario and held steady in Eastern Ontario and Toronto. The NDP held steady in Toronto and the 905 and declined in Eastern Ontario, Southwest Ontario, and Northern Ontario.

In terms of seat count from February, the PC’s have held steady in Toronto and Southwest Ontario, declined in Eastern Ontario, the 905, and Northern Ontario. The Liberals have gained in Eastern Ontario, the 905, Southwestern Ontario, and Northern Ontario, and held steady in Toronto. The NDP has gained in the 905 and Northern Ontario, held steady in Eastern Ontario and Toronto, and declined in Southwestern Ontario.

This paints a rather nuanced picture of the state of the parties. The only discernable trends are that the PC’s are excelling in their strongholds (as well as NDP strongholds) and that the NDP are faltering in their strongholds. The Liberals have an uphill battle to reclaim their previous strongholds.

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Research Poll, April 27, 2016

Mainstreet Research has released a new poll detailing the state of the parties at the federal level. It remains largely the same as two weeks ago. The Liberals have gained one point and are now at 49%, the Conservatives remain at 30%, the New Democrats remain at 14%, the Greens have dropped one point to 4%, and the Bloc Quebecois remains at 3%. It is very possible that the one-point fluctuation between the Liberals and the Greens was statistical noise.

Last time around, my model projected the Liberals would win 242 seats, the Conservatives 75, the NDP 16, the Bloc Quebecois 3, and the Greens 2.

Here is the latest seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 44% Liberal (28 seats), 27% Conservative (8 seats), 18% New Democratic (4 seats), 12% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 52% Conservative (26 seats), 35% Liberal (8 seats), 11% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 49% Liberal (19 seats), 36% Conservative (8 seats), 11% New Democratic (1 seat), 4% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 56% Liberal (100 seats), 29% Conservative (18 seats), 11% New Democratic (3 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 47% Liberal (60 seats), 20% Conservative (8 seats), 19% New Democratic (7 seats), 11% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 52% Liberal (27 seats), 30% Conservative (5 seats), 12% New Democratic (0 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Total: 49% Liberal (245 seats), 30% Conservative (73 seats), 14% New Democratic (15 seats), 4% Green (2 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the party that won them in 2015.

At the aggregate level, the Liberals have gained 3 seats in the projection from last time, the Conservatives have dropped 2, and the NDP have dropped one. However, this is an incredibly marginal change. The Bloc Quebecois and Greens remain at 3 and 2 seats, respectively.

Compared to last poll, the Liberals gained in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, stayed the same in Alberta, and declined in British Columbia. The Conservatives gained in British Columbia, stayed in the same in Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec, and decline in Saskatchewan/Manitoba and Atlantic Canada. The NDP made gains in British Columbia, stayed the same in Alberta and Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and declined in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. Keep in mind all of these movements are marginal at most.

However, if we were to take these marginal movements at face value, it appears that the Liberals are experiencing slight gains from the Prairies eastward and stagnating in the west, the NDP is experiencing slight gains in the west and experiencing more stagnation and decline as it goes eastward. The Conservatives have a less geographically coherent pattern of change in support.

Seat Projections: Abacus, EKOS, Mainstreet Polls, April 13-15, 2016

Three polling firms were out in the field last week gauging the state of the parties on the federal level. Abacus Data has the Liberals at 49%, the Conservatives at 26%, the NDP at 13%, the Bloc Quebecois at 5%, and the Greens at 5%. EKOS has the Liberals at 44.1%, the Conservatives at 28.5%, the NDP at 12%, the Greens at 6.7%, and the Bloc Quebecois at 4.4%. Mainstreet Research has the Liberals at 48%, the Conservatives at 30%, the NDP at 14%, the Greens at 5%, and the Bloc Quebecois at 3%.

Here is the seat projection for the Abacus Data poll*:
British Columbia: 45% Liberal (30 seats), 29% Conservative (8 seats), 16% New Democratic (3 seats), 10% Green (1 seat)
Alberta: 49% Conservative (25 seats), 34% Liberal (8 seats), 10% New Democratic (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 40% Conservative (18 seats), 31% Liberal (7 seats), 18% New Democratic (3 seats), 10% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 53% Liberal (98 seats), 28% Conservative (17 seats), 13% New Democratic (4 seats), 5% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 47% Liberal (63 seats), 21% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats), 15% Conservative (4 seats), 12% New Democratic (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 76% Liberal (32 seats), 11% New Democratic (0 seats), 9% Conservative (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 49% Liberal (241 seats), 26% Conservative (72 seats), 13% New Democratic (14 seats), 5% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats), 5% Green (3 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the EKOS poll*:
British Columbia: 44.3% Liberal (29 seats), 30.9% Conservative (9 seats), 11.9% New Democratic (2 seats), 11.1% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 52.3% Conservative (29 seats), 30.7% Liberal (5 seats), 7.7% New Democratic (0 seats), 1.5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 52.4% Conservative (13 seats), 21.6% Liberal (1 seat), 20.2% New Democratic (0 seats), 5.8% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 39.9% Liberal (9 seats), 37.6% Conservative (5 seats), 15.3% New Democratic (1 seat), 7.3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 49.9% Liberal (80 seats), 31.8% Conservative (26 seats), 9.3% New Democratic (3 seats), 5.2% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 40.7% Liberal (59 seats), 17.9% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 16% New Democratic (6 seats), 13% Conservative (5 seats), 5.6% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 56% Liberal (29 seats), 16% New Democratic (1 seat), 13.8% Conservative (1 seat), 12.5% Green (1 seat)
Total: 44.1% Liberal (215 seats), 28.5% Conservative (88 seats), 12% New Democratic (13 seats), 6.7% Green (5 seats), 4.4% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the Mainstreet Research poll*:
British Columbia: 45% Liberal (33 seats), 25% Conservative (5 seats), 15% New Democratic (2 seats), 15% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 53% Conservative (26 seats), 35% Liberal (8 seats), 9% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 47% Liberal (16 seats), 38% Conservative (11 seats), 11% New Democratic (1 seat), 3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 55% Liberal (99 seats), 29% Conservative (18 seats), 13% New Democratic (4 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 45% Liberal (59 seats), 21% Conservative (8 seats), 20% New Democratic (8 seats), 12% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 51% Liberal (24 seats), 32% Conservative (7 seats), 12% New Democratic (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 48% Liberal (242 seats), 30% Conservative (75 seats), 14% New Democratic (16 seats), 5% Green (2 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the party that won them in 2015 for the sake of simplicity.

With these numbers, it is projected that no matter which poll is right, if the election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would make gains, the Conservatives would sustain mild losses, the NDP would see at least 63% of its elected 2015 caucus decimated (after having 56% of its caucus decimated in 2015), the Greens would make gains, and the Bloc Quebecois will suffer varying degrees of losses.

Overall, the Liberals are currently stronger than their 2015 results in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan/Manitoba (in 2 cases), Ontario, and Quebec, staying the same in Atlantic Canada (in 1 case), and declining in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (in 1 case) and Atlantic Canada (2 cases). They simply have to maintain momentum to stay golden.

The Conservatives are currently stronger relative to 2015 in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (in 2 cases) and Atlantic Canada (2 cases), stagnating in Alberta (in 1 case) and Atlantic Canda (in 1 case), and declining in British Columbia, Alberta (in 2 cases), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (in 1 case), Ontario, and Quebec. In order to become relevant again, they really have to step it up east of Manitoba. Currently, the Liberals have such a large lead that in each of three cases they can (or almost can in the case of the EKOS poll) form a majority government with their seats from Ontario eastward. They would also have to step it up in British Columbia, in which they were traditionally relatively strong during Harper’s tenure.

The NDP are stronger relative to 2015 in Atlantic Canada (in 2 cases), stagnating in Alberta (in 1 case) and Atlantic Canada (in 1 case), and declining in British Columbia, Alberta (in 2 cases), Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec. In order to keep its caucus at 2015 levels even (much less become competitive), they must regroup in British Columbia and Quebec, two of their strongholds before the 2015 election. This is where 30 of their 44 seats are. In addition, if they wish to be competitive again, they must make inroads in Ontario. 8 seats in a 121-seat province is dismal for a party that wishes to form even the Official Opposition.

The Bloc Quebecois is variably stronger and weaker in the popular vote counts compared to 2015, but compared to 2015, all polls show the BQ declining in the seat count. In order to get that count up, they either have to continue to exploit splits between the Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP and win seats that way, or regain soft sovereigntist support that they have lost to various parties.

The Greens appear to have at least one seat in the bag in British Columbia, so with all polls showing gains, they really need to make inroads into Vancouver Island in British Columbia and a handful of sympathetic ridings in Ontario for 2019. This is especially crucial considering Elizabeth May will have been leader for 13 years, and an enlarged caucus will provide the party with viable successors in the event that she steps down post-2019.

Manitoba 2016: Projection vs. Reality

Well, my model did not do as well in the 2016 Manitoba election as it did the others.

Winnipeg:
Expected: 20-25 Progressive Conservative, 6-8 New Democratic, 1-5 Liberal, 1-2 Green
Reality: 21 Progressive Conservative, 12 New Democratic, 2 Liberal, 0 Green

Not Winnipeg:
Expected: 22 Progressive Conservative, 0 New Democratic, 0 Liberal, 0 Green
Reality: 19 Progressive Conservative, 2 New Democratic, 1 Liberal, 0 Green

Total:
Expected: 42-47 Progressive Conservative, 6-8 New Democratic, 1-5 Liberal, 1-2 Green
Reality: 40 Progressive Conservative, 14 New Democratic, 3 Liberal, 0 Green

The results were in the projected ranges for the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals in Winnipeg, and for the Greens outside Winnipeg. However, the PC’s underperformed the projections in the rest of Manitoba, NDP outperformed throughout Manitoba, and the Greens underperformed in Winnipeg.

This indicates two potential problems my model might need to solve going forward:
1) It underestimates the incumbency advantage, which happened in the Newfoundland 2015 projection as well.
2) It overestimates the pull of small parties (though the Greens did come close to winning a seat in Winnipeg).

My model will adjust for this in the future.

Final Seat Projection, Manitoba 2016 Election

Hello folks, it’s that time – the morning of the election, when I deliver my final seat projection.

Winnipeg: 20-25 Progressive Conservative, 6-8 New Democratic, 1-5 Liberal, 1-2 Green
Not Winnipeg: 22 Progressive Conservative, 0 New Democratic, 0 Liberal, 0 Green
Total: 42-47 Progressive Conservative, 6-8 New Democratic, 1-5 Liberal, 1-2 Green

With this final projection, it appears all but certain that the Progressive Conservatives will be forming a strong government, taking all the seats outside of Winnipeg, and the lion’s share of seats within Winnipeg. The NDP will form the Official Opposition, but depending on how well the NDP and PC’s do, that status may be fragile. The Greens are set to pick up 1 or 2 seats in Winnipeg according to my model, owing to the rise in popularity for the party.

Seat Projection: Leger Marketing Quebec Poll, March 24, 2016

The latest Leger poll detailing Quebec politics slipped me by, folks. I apologize, it’s been somewhat of a hectic couple of weeks so I am catching up now.

It shows the state of the parties as pretty similar to the last few months – the Liberals are in a narrow lead with 33%. The Parti Quebecois is trailing only slightly with 30%. The Coalition Avenir Quebec is in third with 22%. Quebec Solidaire brings up the rear with 10%.

Here is the seat projection with those numbers:
Montreal: 39% Liberal (34 seats), 26% Parti Quebecois (8 seats), 16% Coalition Avenir Quebec (4 seats), 11% Quebec Solidaire (3 seats)
Quebec City: 35% Coalition Avenir Quebec (7 seats), 25% Liberal (2 seats), 24% Parti Quebecois (2 seats), 12% Quebec Solidaire (0 seats)
Regions of Quebec: 37% Parti Quebecois (37 seats), 27% Liberal (14 seats), 25% Coalition Avenir Quebec (11 seats), 8% Quebec Solidaire (3 seats)
Total: 33% Liberal (50 seats), 30% Parti Quebecois (47 seats), 22% Coalition Avenir Quebec (22 seats), 10% Quebec Solidaire (6 seats)

With these numbers, it appears that the Liberals would narrowly hold on to power in the form of a minority government with a projected 50 seats. The PQ would get 47 seats, remaining in opposition, but even two favorable by-elections or floor crossings could swing the pendulum to them. This makes the balance of power rest at the CAQ, who would have 22 seats. Quebec Solidaire would continue their rise with a projected 6 seats.

Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, March 26, 2016

It appears that this new Forum Ontario poll slipped through my radar. My bad, folks. It appears, though, that the Progressive Conservatives remain in the lead after they shot up in the polls earlier in the year according to a previous Forum poll. They have 40%, with the Liberals in second with 27%, the NDP with 24%, and the Greens with 5%. This is a 4% decline for the Progressive Conservatives and a 2% gain for the NDP.

Last time around, my model projected 77 Progressive Conservative seats, 18 Liberal seats, 12 NDP seats, and 0 Green seats.

Here is the latest projection with my model:
Eastern Ontario: 41% Progressive Conservative (9 seats), 33% Liberal (4 seats), 19% New Democratic (1 seat), 8% Green (0 seats)
Toronto*: 39% Progressive Conservative (12 seats), 34% Liberal (7 seats), 22% New Democratic (3 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
905: 42% Progressive Conservative (23 seats), 28% Liberal (9 seats), 25% New Democratic (6 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Southwest Ontario: 42% Progressive Conservative (15 seats), 26% New Democratic (4 seats), 23% Liberal (3 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 33% Progressive Conservative (4 seats), 30% Liberal (3 seats), 29% New Democratic (4 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 40% Progressive Conservative (63 seats), 27% Liberal (26 seats), 24% New Democratic (18 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)

*The 416 and GTA numbers in the Forum poll were combined, since they were available to me.

With these numbers, it appears the slight decline for the PC’s means quite a bit to the seat projections. They are now projected to get 63 seats, which is still a majority, but it’s not the commanding majority of 77. The Liberals have bounced back, and are now projected to get 26 seats, which is still a far cry from their current 58. The NDP also bounces back to 18 projected seats, but this is still less than their current total. The Greens remain shut out.

Seat Projections: EKOS & Forum polls, March 29-April 5, 2016

In the last week, two polls have been released detailing the state of the parties federally.

The March 29 EKOS poll has the Liberals in the lead with 42.1%, the Conservatives in second with 31.7%, the NDP in a distant third with 11.7%, the Greens with 6.4%, and the Bloc Quebecois with 4.8%.

The April 5 Forum Research poll has the Liberals even higher at 51%, with the Conservatives at 28%, the NDP at 12%, the Bloc Quebecois at 6%, and the Greens at 3%.

Here is the seat projection for the EKOS poll*:
British Columbia: 54.9% Liberal (37 seats), 17.1% Conservative (2 seats), 14.7% Green (2 seats), 9.9% New Democratic (1 seat)
Alberta: 57.5% Conservative (31 seats), 24.9% Liberal (3 seats), 8.9% New Democratic (0 seats), 3.9% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 56.2% Conservative (12 seats), 30.1% Liberal (2 seats), 9.1% New Democratic (0 seats), 1.3% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 45% Conservative (10 seats), 27.6% Liberal (3 seats), 16% Green (1 seat), 11.4% New Democratic (0 seats)
Ontario: 41.5% Liberal (67 seats), 40% Conservative (48 seats), 10.8% New Democratic (4 seats), 5.4% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 42.4% Liberal (58 seats), 19.9% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats), 15.8% Conservative (6 seats), 15.5% New Democratic (6 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 58.6% Liberal (30 seats), 14.3% Conservative (1 seat), 12.7% New Democratic (1 seat), 10.5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 42.1% Liberal (203 seats), 31.7% Conservative (110 seats), 11.7% New Democratic (12 seats), 6.4% Green (5 seats), 4.8% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the Forum poll*:
British Columbia: 49% Liberal (31 seats), 31% Conservative (9 seats), 13% New Democratic (2 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 58% Conservative (28 seats), 33% Liberal (6 seats), 7% New Democratic (0 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 42% Conservative (16 seats), 40% Liberal (11 seats), 11% New Democratic (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 56% Liberal (100 seats), 29% Conservative (18 seats), 11% New Democratic (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 48% Liberal (61 seats), 23% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 14% Conservative (4 seats), 14% New Democratic (4 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 71% Liberal (32 seats), 12% Conservative (0 seats), 11% New Democratic (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 51% Liberal (244 seats), 28% Conservative (75 seats), 12% New Democratic (10 seats), 6% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I left their seats with the party that won them in 2015, the Liberals.

With these numbers, it’s very clear that whether the EKOS or Forum polls are right, the Liberals would still make gains relative to their position in the 2015 election. The Conservatives stagnate for the most part, but retain their core 28-31%. The NDP would see its caucus further decimated after it was decimated in 2015, a bad sign for the party’s future. The Bloc Quebecois appears to be staying afloat. The Greens could either make gains or total losses.

Seat Projection: Probe and Mainstreet Manitoba polls, April 4-5, 2016

It finally seems like Manitoba has a clear second place party. For a while, the governing NDP and the resurgent Liberals were battling it out to see who would become the opposition to the Progressive Conservatives. However, the NDP has pulled ahead in both the latest Probe Research and Mainstreet polls with 28% and 24%, respectively, to the Liberals’ 20% and 17%, respectively. However, this still is far behind the leading Progressive Conservatives, who have 46% and 50%, respectively.

Here is the seat projection with both polls using my model:

Probe Research:
Winnipeg: 38% Progressive Conservative (13 seats), 34% New Democratic (16 seats), 21% Liberal (5 seats), 7% Green (1 seat)
Not Winnipeg: 59% Progressive Conservative (21 seats), 19% Liberal (1 seat), 18% New Democratic (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 46% Progressive Conservative (34 seats), 28% New Democratic (16 seats), 20% Liberal (6 seats), 6% Green (1 seat)

Mainstreet Research:
Winnipeg: 46% Progressive Conservative (24 seats), 29% New Democratic (8 seats), 16% Liberal (2 seats), 9% Green (1 seat)
Not Winnipeg: 55% Progressive Conservative (20 seats), 20% Liberal (1 seat), 16% New Democratic (1 seat), 9% Green (0 seats)
Total: 50% Progressive Conservative (44 seats), 24% New Democratic (9 seats), 17% Liberal (3 seats), 9% Green (1 seat)

Both polls, despite similar totals, predict somewhat different results. Probe has the NDP close to the PC’s in Winnipeg, which nets them their 16 seats, though they remain shut out of the rest of Manitoba. However, Mainstreet has the NDP further behind, minimizing the incumbency advantage and giving the NDP only 8 seats in the city. My projections with both polls interestingly predict the Greens getting a seat in Winnipeg, but the probability of this remains to be seen.