Seat Projection: Forum Poll, May 11, 2016

Forum has come out with a new poll detailing the state of the parties in Canada, and it’s good news for the Liberals. Forum has their support pegged at 52%, which is their second highest level of support since the election (they had 55% in the immediate aftermath). The Conservatives are in a stable second with 29%, which appears to be their floor. The NDP is currently in a dismal third with 11%. The Bloc Quebecois and Greens bring up the rear with 4% and 3%, respectively.

As to the last forum poll, my model projected 244 seats for the Liberals, 75 for the Conservatives, 10 for the NDP, 9 for the Bloc Quebecois, and 0 for the Greens.

Here is the seat projection for this latest poll with my model*:
British Columbia: 43% Liberal (29 seats), 33% Conservative (9 seats), 17% New Democratic (4 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 52% Conservative (25 seats), 41% Liberal (9 seats), 4% New Democratic (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 44% Conservative (16 seats), 42% Liberal (12 seats), 10% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 54% Liberal (100 seats), 30% Conservative (18 seats), 11% New Democratic (3 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 59% Liberal (71 seats), 15% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 13% Conservative (3 seats), 9% New Democratic (1 seat), 2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 61% Liberal (29 seats), 28% Conservative (3 seats), 8% New Democratic (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 52% Liberal (253 seats), 29% Conservative (74 seats), 11% New Democratic (8 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)

**Since Northern Canada was not polled, I left their seats with the party that won them in 2015.

With these numbers, the Liberals are currently projected to have around three quarters of the House of Commons, and would make drastic gains if the election were held today. Their totals in Ontario and Quebec alone give them a majority government. Currently, they are up from the last poll in Alberta, Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and Quebec, the same in Ontario, and down in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada. However, if they are able to stop the NDP from gaining in British Columbia and the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada, those losses will be reversed.

The Conservatives have stayed the same at the aggregate level, only dropping from 75 to 74 in the projected seat count. They have made gains in Atlantic Canada, stayed the same in British Columbia, Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and Ontario, and declined in Alberta and Quebec. Their gains and declines are both related to changing fortunes for the Liberals. Due to the overwhelming leads the Liberals have everywhere but the three Prairie provinces, there are not as many paths open for the Conservatives to coming in first. Their short term priority should be opening up a wide lead in Saskatchewan and Manitoba so that they can at least consolidate the leads they have in their safest provinces. In the long term, they should try to take back British Columbia and Ontario, and at least attempt to eat into Liberal leads in Atlantic Canada, where their 2015 sweep is unlikely to take place a second time.

The NDP, already in a pitiful state, have dropped down to single digits in the seat count with 8, which would be worse than their disastrous 1993 result. The silver lining is that they have made gains in British Columbia and held steady in Alberta, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada. They have, however, made worrying declines in Saskatchewan/Manitoba and Quebec. British Columbia may be statistical noise, but this is a key province to rebuilding their 2011 coalition. If there is a glimmer of hope, this is a good place to start. The harder part would be rebuilding their base in Quebec, where they are projected to win only one seat, down from the 16 they have currently.

The NDP have a long way to go if they even wish to replicate their 2015 result, so concentrating their forces is only one of these provinces may prove more fruitful. One fatal flaw in the NDP’s campaign strategy that undid the party was attempting to pander to both Western protest voters and Quebecers, which in many cases have diametrically opposed interests. They can either rebuild their populist base in the Prairies that have moved to the Conservatives but may look elsewhere now that the Conservatives are in opposition, or rebuild themselves in Quebec. If they can open up a lead in either of these regions, the NDP is back in play. If not, then they are doomed to third place for a while.

The Bloc Quebecois has to first concentrate on not bleeding support to any other party. However, if it will bleed support anyway, it should hope that it’s not going to any one place. Finding a way to divide the field in Quebec will net them seats in a first-past-the-post electoral system. The Greens should attempt to consolidate their support in Vancouver Island and get more than one seat, since Elizabeth May cannot carry the party’s mantle forever and a successor will need to take over eventually. It would be best for the party if this successor was an MP during that transition.

Seat Projection: Forum Poll, May 11, 2016

Seat Projection: MQO Prince Edward Island Poll, April 6, 2016

This poll also slipped by in my daily check for new polls. My bad. This one is a new opinion poll showing the state of Prince Edward Island politics.

It appears that the Liberals are wildly popular in PEI again, even in their third term of government. They currently have 69% support, which is almost 30 points higher than in the 2015 election. The Progressive Conservatives are in a distant second with only 17% support. The Greens and NDP bring up the rear with 9% and 5%, respectively.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
27 Liberal
0 Progressive Conservative
0 Green
0 New Democratic

*Since there was no regional data, I could only go with province-wide data, which may be less accurate.

With these numbers, the Liberals, if the election was held tomorrow, would be projected to find themselves not only with a fourth term, but with the entire legislature. However, I do not believe this projection is realistic, since even at their nadir, the PC’s have a couple of strongholds. Also, Peter Bevan-Baker is still quite popular in his district, so he’d likely be re-elected.

Seat Projection: MQO Prince Edward Island Poll, April 6, 2016

Seat Projection: MQO Newfoundland & Labrador Poll, April 21, 2015

Sorry, folks. Somehow, this poll escaped my radar. The first opinion poll since the Newfoundland & Labrador general election has been released. It appears that a real three-way race is forming.

The governing Liberals have 37% support, which is down from the majority they had in September 2015. The NDP, which fell to two seats in 2015, is now in second place with 31%. The Conservatives are in third with 30%, which is around the amount of support they had at that point.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
20 Liberal
10 New Democratic
10 Conservative

*Due to the lack of regional data, I had to use the provincial data at face value, which may be less accurate.

With these numbers, it appears that the Liberals would hold onto government with exactly half the seats and the NDP and Conservatives would share opposition status.

Seat Projection: MQO Newfoundland & Labrador Poll, April 21, 2015

Seat Projection: Insights West British Columbia Poll, May 5, 2016

Well folks, it’s been quiet on the polling front, especially with British Columbia. Insights West has done its first poll on British Columbia in six months. In November, the last time they were in the field, the NDP was leading the Liberals 39% to 34%. Following the two major parties were the Greens with 16%, the Conservatives with 7%, and Independents/others with 4%.

Not much has changed since then. The NDP have ticked up one point to 40%, the Liberals have stayed at 34%, the Greens have gone down 2 points to 14%, the Conservatives have gone up 3 points to 10%, and the Independents/others have gone down to 2%. Much of this variation on the aggregate level could very well be noise.

Last time around, my model projected 49 NDP seats, 25 Liberals, 8 Greens, and 3 Independents/others.

Here is the latest projection with my model:
Vancouver: 39% New Democratic (14 seats), 37% Liberal (9 seats), 13% Green (2 seats), 9% Conservative (0 seats), 2% Independent/Other (0 seats)
Vancouver Island: 52% New Democratic (13 seats), 22% Green (1 seat), 21% Liberal (0 seats), 5% Conservative (0 seats), 0% Independent/Other (0 seats)
Rest of BC: 35% Liberal (22 seats), 33% New Democratic (15 seats), 18% Conservative (6 seats), 13% Green (3 seats), 1% Independent/Other (0 seats)
Total: 40% New Democratic (42 seats), 34% Liberal (31 seats), 14% Green (6 seats), 10% Conservative (6 seats), 2% Independent/Other (0 seats)

Despite the relatively small changes at the aggregate, the NDP’s projected seat count has gone down to 42 out of 85, which almost certainly means a minority government (unless the Liberals can somehow cobble a coalition with Greens and Conservatives, which is unlikely). The Liberals have gone up almost the same amount (6 seats) to 31 seats, a healthy opposition caucus. The Green caucus has been projected to go down to 6 seats, but this is still miles ahead of the 1 seat they have. The Conservatives are now projected to enter the legislature, also with a 6 seat caucus. The Independents/Others are no longer projected to have any seats.

With these results in mind, one thing is clear: the NDP cannot rest on its progressive laurels in the cities. Having highly concentrated support gives it a boon in Vancouver Island, but much of it is swallowed by diminishing returns. The NDP also has to open up a wider lead in Vancouver. However, concentrating its support in urban areas is not enough – while it is unlikely they will open up a lead in rural BC, they have to keep the Liberals from taking as many seats as possible.

Conversely, the Liberals, if they wish to take a 5th term, need to break the NDP’s narrow lead in Vancouver and start racking up a lead. It might as well forget about Vancouver Island for the moment, which does not have much opportunity for seats. It also needs to definitively win in rural BC, which can at the very least deny the NDP a majority.

The Greens, if they are serious about increasing their presence, appear to be doing well. However, they need to eat into the NDP’s lead in Vancouver Island, where they have been in 2nd place and actually have a rather decent chance of getting a few seats.

The Conservatives, if they wish to get into the legislature and increase their presence, should probably forget about the cities for now. They can court those voters at another time. Right now, their goldmine is in Rural BC.

Seat Projection: Insights West British Columbia Poll, May 5, 2016

Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, April 28, 2016

A recent Forum poll showing the state of the parties in Ontario has Pat Brown’s Progressive Conservatives continuing to lose their lead.

The Progressive Conservatives have 39%, which is only 1 point down from March (40%), but it is 5 points down from February (44%). The Liberals have 34%, which is up 4 points from March (30%), and 7 points up from February (27%). The NDP have 21%, which is down 3 points from March (24%) but only down one point from February (22%). The Greens have remained at 5% the whole time.

In February, my seat projection model showed 77 Progressive Conservatives, 18 Liberals, and 12 New Democrats. In March, it showed 63 Progressive Conservatives, 26 Liberals, and 18 New Democrats.

Here is the seat projection with the current numbers:
Eastern Ontario: 43% Progressive Conservative (10 seats), 40% Liberal (4 seats), 12% New Democratic (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Toronto*: 39% Progressive Conservative (12 seats), 34% Liberal (7 seats), 21% New Democratic (3 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
905: 39% Progressive Conservative (20 seats), 32% Liberal (12 seats), 22% New Democratic (6 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Southwest Ontario: 42% Progressive Conservative (16 seats), 29% Liberal (4 seats), 21% New Democratic (2 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 37% Liberal (6 seats), 30% Progressive Conservative (3 seats), 26% New Democratic (2 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Total: 39% Progressive Conservatives (61 seats), 34% Liberal (33 seats), 21% New Democratic (13 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)

*The 416 and GTA numbers in the Forum poll were combined, since they were available to me.

With these numbers, overall the Progressive Conservatives do not lose much ground, only going down 2 seats to 61. The Liberals gain 7 seats and are now projected to get 33, which is still opposition status but improving. The NDP has gone down in the count from 18 to 13, despite having a similar popular vote total to the 2014 election.

In terms of seat count from March, the PC’s gained in Eastern Ontario and Southwest Ontario, and held steady in Toronto, and declined in the 905 (a PC stronghold) and Northern Ontario. The Liberals gained in Southwest Ontario, the 905 and Northern Ontario and held steady in Eastern Ontario and Toronto. The NDP held steady in Toronto and the 905 and declined in Eastern Ontario, Southwest Ontario, and Northern Ontario.

In terms of seat count from February, the PC’s have held steady in Toronto and Southwest Ontario, declined in Eastern Ontario, the 905, and Northern Ontario. The Liberals have gained in Eastern Ontario, the 905, Southwestern Ontario, and Northern Ontario, and held steady in Toronto. The NDP has gained in the 905 and Northern Ontario, held steady in Eastern Ontario and Toronto, and declined in Southwestern Ontario.

This paints a rather nuanced picture of the state of the parties. The only discernable trends are that the PC’s are excelling in their strongholds (as well as NDP strongholds) and that the NDP are faltering in their strongholds. The Liberals have an uphill battle to reclaim their previous strongholds.

Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, April 28, 2016

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Research Poll, April 27, 2016

Mainstreet Research has released a new poll detailing the state of the parties at the federal level. It remains largely the same as two weeks ago. The Liberals have gained one point and are now at 49%, the Conservatives remain at 30%, the New Democrats remain at 14%, the Greens have dropped one point to 4%, and the Bloc Quebecois remains at 3%. It is very possible that the one-point fluctuation between the Liberals and the Greens was statistical noise.

Last time around, my model projected the Liberals would win 242 seats, the Conservatives 75, the NDP 16, the Bloc Quebecois 3, and the Greens 2.

Here is the latest seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 44% Liberal (28 seats), 27% Conservative (8 seats), 18% New Democratic (4 seats), 12% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 52% Conservative (26 seats), 35% Liberal (8 seats), 11% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 49% Liberal (19 seats), 36% Conservative (8 seats), 11% New Democratic (1 seat), 4% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 56% Liberal (100 seats), 29% Conservative (18 seats), 11% New Democratic (3 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 47% Liberal (60 seats), 20% Conservative (8 seats), 19% New Democratic (7 seats), 11% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 52% Liberal (27 seats), 30% Conservative (5 seats), 12% New Democratic (0 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Total: 49% Liberal (245 seats), 30% Conservative (73 seats), 14% New Democratic (15 seats), 4% Green (2 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the party that won them in 2015.

At the aggregate level, the Liberals have gained 3 seats in the projection from last time, the Conservatives have dropped 2, and the NDP have dropped one. However, this is an incredibly marginal change. The Bloc Quebecois and Greens remain at 3 and 2 seats, respectively.

Compared to last poll, the Liberals gained in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, stayed the same in Alberta, and declined in British Columbia. The Conservatives gained in British Columbia, stayed in the same in Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec, and decline in Saskatchewan/Manitoba and Atlantic Canada. The NDP made gains in British Columbia, stayed the same in Alberta and Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and declined in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. Keep in mind all of these movements are marginal at most.

However, if we were to take these marginal movements at face value, it appears that the Liberals are experiencing slight gains from the Prairies eastward and stagnating in the west, the NDP is experiencing slight gains in the west and experiencing more stagnation and decline as it goes eastward. The Conservatives have a less geographically coherent pattern of change in support.

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Research Poll, April 27, 2016

Seat Projections: Abacus, EKOS, Mainstreet Polls, April 13-15, 2016

Three polling firms were out in the field last week gauging the state of the parties on the federal level. Abacus Data has the Liberals at 49%, the Conservatives at 26%, the NDP at 13%, the Bloc Quebecois at 5%, and the Greens at 5%. EKOS has the Liberals at 44.1%, the Conservatives at 28.5%, the NDP at 12%, the Greens at 6.7%, and the Bloc Quebecois at 4.4%. Mainstreet Research has the Liberals at 48%, the Conservatives at 30%, the NDP at 14%, the Greens at 5%, and the Bloc Quebecois at 3%.

Here is the seat projection for the Abacus Data poll*:
British Columbia: 45% Liberal (30 seats), 29% Conservative (8 seats), 16% New Democratic (3 seats), 10% Green (1 seat)
Alberta: 49% Conservative (25 seats), 34% Liberal (8 seats), 10% New Democratic (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 40% Conservative (18 seats), 31% Liberal (7 seats), 18% New Democratic (3 seats), 10% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 53% Liberal (98 seats), 28% Conservative (17 seats), 13% New Democratic (4 seats), 5% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 47% Liberal (63 seats), 21% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats), 15% Conservative (4 seats), 12% New Democratic (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 76% Liberal (32 seats), 11% New Democratic (0 seats), 9% Conservative (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 49% Liberal (241 seats), 26% Conservative (72 seats), 13% New Democratic (14 seats), 5% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats), 5% Green (3 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the EKOS poll*:
British Columbia: 44.3% Liberal (29 seats), 30.9% Conservative (9 seats), 11.9% New Democratic (2 seats), 11.1% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 52.3% Conservative (29 seats), 30.7% Liberal (5 seats), 7.7% New Democratic (0 seats), 1.5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 52.4% Conservative (13 seats), 21.6% Liberal (1 seat), 20.2% New Democratic (0 seats), 5.8% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 39.9% Liberal (9 seats), 37.6% Conservative (5 seats), 15.3% New Democratic (1 seat), 7.3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 49.9% Liberal (80 seats), 31.8% Conservative (26 seats), 9.3% New Democratic (3 seats), 5.2% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 40.7% Liberal (59 seats), 17.9% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 16% New Democratic (6 seats), 13% Conservative (5 seats), 5.6% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 56% Liberal (29 seats), 16% New Democratic (1 seat), 13.8% Conservative (1 seat), 12.5% Green (1 seat)
Total: 44.1% Liberal (215 seats), 28.5% Conservative (88 seats), 12% New Democratic (13 seats), 6.7% Green (5 seats), 4.4% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the Mainstreet Research poll*:
British Columbia: 45% Liberal (33 seats), 25% Conservative (5 seats), 15% New Democratic (2 seats), 15% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 53% Conservative (26 seats), 35% Liberal (8 seats), 9% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 47% Liberal (16 seats), 38% Conservative (11 seats), 11% New Democratic (1 seat), 3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 55% Liberal (99 seats), 29% Conservative (18 seats), 13% New Democratic (4 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 45% Liberal (59 seats), 21% Conservative (8 seats), 20% New Democratic (8 seats), 12% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 51% Liberal (24 seats), 32% Conservative (7 seats), 12% New Democratic (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 48% Liberal (242 seats), 30% Conservative (75 seats), 14% New Democratic (16 seats), 5% Green (2 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the party that won them in 2015 for the sake of simplicity.

With these numbers, it is projected that no matter which poll is right, if the election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would make gains, the Conservatives would sustain mild losses, the NDP would see at least 63% of its elected 2015 caucus decimated (after having 56% of its caucus decimated in 2015), the Greens would make gains, and the Bloc Quebecois will suffer varying degrees of losses.

Overall, the Liberals are currently stronger than their 2015 results in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan/Manitoba (in 2 cases), Ontario, and Quebec, staying the same in Atlantic Canada (in 1 case), and declining in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (in 1 case) and Atlantic Canada (2 cases). They simply have to maintain momentum to stay golden.

The Conservatives are currently stronger relative to 2015 in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (in 2 cases) and Atlantic Canada (2 cases), stagnating in Alberta (in 1 case) and Atlantic Canda (in 1 case), and declining in British Columbia, Alberta (in 2 cases), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (in 1 case), Ontario, and Quebec. In order to become relevant again, they really have to step it up east of Manitoba. Currently, the Liberals have such a large lead that in each of three cases they can (or almost can in the case of the EKOS poll) form a majority government with their seats from Ontario eastward. They would also have to step it up in British Columbia, in which they were traditionally relatively strong during Harper’s tenure.

The NDP are stronger relative to 2015 in Atlantic Canada (in 2 cases), stagnating in Alberta (in 1 case) and Atlantic Canada (in 1 case), and declining in British Columbia, Alberta (in 2 cases), Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec. In order to keep its caucus at 2015 levels even (much less become competitive), they must regroup in British Columbia and Quebec, two of their strongholds before the 2015 election. This is where 30 of their 44 seats are. In addition, if they wish to be competitive again, they must make inroads in Ontario. 8 seats in a 121-seat province is dismal for a party that wishes to form even the Official Opposition.

The Bloc Quebecois is variably stronger and weaker in the popular vote counts compared to 2015, but compared to 2015, all polls show the BQ declining in the seat count. In order to get that count up, they either have to continue to exploit splits between the Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP and win seats that way, or regain soft sovereigntist support that they have lost to various parties.

The Greens appear to have at least one seat in the bag in British Columbia, so with all polls showing gains, they really need to make inroads into Vancouver Island in British Columbia and a handful of sympathetic ridings in Ontario for 2019. This is especially crucial considering Elizabeth May will have been leader for 13 years, and an enlarged caucus will provide the party with viable successors in the event that she steps down post-2019.

Seat Projections: Abacus, EKOS, Mainstreet Polls, April 13-15, 2016