Yukon Election: Expectations vs. Reality

So, as promised, I will do a post-mortem of the predictions for the Yukon General Election. The results were not all that accurately predicted by my algorithm, but I’m not surprised – the last poll done on the election was nine months ago.

Expectations:
13 Liberal
3 NDP
1 Yukon

Reality:
11 Liberal
6 Yukon
2 NDP

I also did not have the right amount of seats predicted. If I did, then it would’ve been 15 Liberal, 3 NDP, and 1 Yukon.

The only thing that it predicted accurately was the NDP seat total. However, it totally underestimated the incumbency advantage of the Yukon Party.

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Yukon Election: Expectations vs. Reality

Projection: Yukon General Election, 2016

Hello all, it’s been a while. I no longer have time to update this blog regularly, but I did want to do my projection of the Yukon general election in 2016. I will also do a post-mortem of the projection. It should be noted that the last poll to be done on this election was 9 months ago, and my calculation is based solely on that poll. Additionally, there is no regional data.

So here is the final projection for tonight:
13 Liberal
3 New Democratic
1 Yukon Party

If this projection is true, the Yukon Party will really suffer tonight, and the New Democrats will remain in opposition with reduced status. Undoubtedly, Sandy Silver would become premier.

Projection: Yukon General Election, 2016

Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, May 31, 2016

Just like Mainstreet Research, Forum has also come out with a new poll detailing the state of the parties in Ontario. However, unlike the Mainstreet poll, it is the Liberals who are declining, not the NDP.

The Progressive Conservatives are at 40%, up from 39% last time Forum was in the field. The Liberals are at 30%, down 4 points from last time. The NDP has remained at 21%. The Greens have gone up 2 points to 7%.

Last time, my model projected 61 Progressive Conservatives, 33 Liberals, and 13 New Democrats.

Here is the seat projection this time around:
Eastern Ontario: 46% Progressive Conservative (10 seats), 32% Liberal (4 seats), 14% New Democratic (0 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Toronto*: 39% Progressive Conservative (13 seats), 33% Liberal (7 seats), 18% New Democratic (2 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
905: 42% Progressive Conservative (25 seats), 32% Liberal (10 seats), 17% New Democratic (3 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Southwest Ontario: 43% Progressive Conservative (16 seats), 28% New Democratic (4 seats), 22% Liberal (2 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 30% Progressive Conservative (3 seats), 29% New Democratic (5 seats), 27% Liberal (3 seats), 10% Green (0 seats)
Total: 40% Progressive Conservative (67 seats), 30% Liberal (26 seats), 21% New Democratic (14 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)

*The 416 and GTA numbers in the Forum poll were combined, since they were available to me.

The Progressive Conservatives have increased their projected seat count from 61 to 67, and the NDP have increased their count from 13 to 14. This has come at the expense of the Liberals, which have lost 7 seats.

Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, May 31, 2016

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Ontario Poll, May 18, 2016

A Mainstreet Research poll has been released detailing the state of the parties in Ontario. Compared to last time, it appears to be a consolidation of major party support.

The Progressive Conservatives have 38%, up from 36% the last time Mainstreet was in the field. The Liberals also increased from 33% to 36%. This came at the expense of the NDP, which is down 6 points to 20%. The Greens are at 5%, just like three months ago.

With the last Mainstreet poll, my model projected 44 PC seats, 41 Liberal seats, 21 NDP seats, and 1 Green seat.

Here is the latest seat projection using my model:
Eastern Ontario: 39% Liberal (7 seats), 36% Progressive Conservative (5 seats), 20% New Democratic (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Toronto: 41% Liberal (14 seats), 33% Progressive Conservative (6 seats), 19% New Democratic (2 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
905: 41% Progressive Conservative (19 seats), 33% Liberal (13 seats), 23% New Democratic (6 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Southwest Ontario: 39% Progressive Conservative (14 seats), 31% Liberal (5 seats), 22% New Democratic (3 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 42% Progressive Conservative (7 seats), 32% New Democratic (2 seats), 23% Liberal (2 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 38% Progressive Conservative (51 seats), 36% Liberal (41 seats), 20% New Democratic (15 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)

*The 416 and GTA numbers in this poll were combined, since the numbers were available to me.

At the aggregate level, the Progressive Conservatives have increased 7 seats, at the expense of both the NDP and the Greens, while the Liberals have stayed where they are.

However, at the regional level, there is more complicated movement. The Liberals improved their performance in Toronto, a stronghold, Eastern Ontario (PC-friendly territory), and Southwest Ontario (a PC stronghold), but those gains are offset by setbacks in PC/NDP competitive areas like the 905 and Northern Ontario. If trends continue, some areas will be PC/NDP contests and some will be PC/Liberal contests. Depending on how the Liberals and NDP do, this could either be an easy divide-and-conquer for the PC’s, or a strategic block from power.

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Ontario Poll, May 18, 2016

Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, May 23, 2016

CROP has released a new poll detailing the state of Quebec politics. Much has changed since I last did a seat projection in February. Most of the change revolves around the Parti Quebecois, which is currently leaderless after the resignation of Pierre Karl Péladeau.

This has caused a massive change for its numbers. While the Liberals and Quebec Solidaire have remained largely unchanged, only going down from 36% to 34% and 12% to 11% respectively, the Parti Quebecois has fallen from 31% to 26%. This would be less startling if weren’t for the fact that this puts the PQ in third place. Coalition Avenir Quebec has rebounded from 18% to 27%, appearing to eat up the losses of the other parties.

In the last CROP poll projection, my model predicted 54 Liberal seats, 46 PQ seats, 18 CAQ seats, and 7 QS seats.

Here is the new seat projection using my model:
Montreal: 32% Liberal (14 seats), 30% Coalition Avenir Quebec (9 seats), 23% Parti Quebecois (5 seats), 10% Quebec Solidaire (1 seat)
Montreal Island: 36% Liberal (13 seats), 25% Coalition Avenir Quebec (3 seats), 24% Parti Quebecois (3 seats), 12% Quebec Solidaire (1 seat)
Quebec City: 34% Coalition Avenir Quebec (6 seats), 29% Liberal (3 seats), 28% Parti Quebecois (2 seats), 3% Quebec Solidarie (0 seats)
Regions of Quebec: 34% Liberal (33 seats), 27% Parti Quebecois (18 seats), 24% Coalition Avenir Quebec (10 seats), 13% Quebec Solidaire (4 seats)
Total: 34% Liberal (63 seats), 27% Coalition Avenir Quebec (28 seats), 26% Parti Quebecois (28 seats), 11% Quebec Solidarie (6 seats)

With these numbers, it appears that the Liberals are now projected to have a slight majority, with 63 out of 125 seats. The CAQ and PQ would be tied for opposition status with 28 seats each, which is a gain for both parties from their 2014 result, but a huge decline for the PQ from February. Quebec SOlidaire would take 6 seats, doubling their 2014 result.

Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, May 23, 2016

Seat Projection: Abacus Data Poll, May 20, 2016

It has been a month since Abacus Data was last in the field, but they just released a new poll that shows only modest movement from last month.

The Liberals have gone down from 49% to 46%, the Conservatives have gone up from 26% to 27%, the New Democrats have gone up from 13% to 15%, the Bloc Quebecois declined from 5% to 4%, and the Greens have moved up from 5% to 7%.

For the last Abacus Data poll, my model projected 241 seats for the Liberals, 72 for the Conservatives, 14 for the NDP, 8 for the Bloc Quebecois, and 3 for the Greens.

Here is the latest seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 44% Liberal (29 seats), 31% Conservative (9 seats), 13% New Democratic (2 seats), 11% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 54% Conservative (29 seats), 25% Liberal (4 seats), 12% New Democratic (1 seat), 6% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 41% Conservative (18 seats), 34% Liberal (8 seats), 15% New Democratic (2 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 49% Liberal (95 seats), 29% Conservative (18 seats), 14% New Democratic (6 seats), 7% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 50% Liberal, (66 seats) 16% New Democratic (4 seats), 15% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 13% Conservative (3 seats), 6% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 57% Liberal (28 seats), 20% New Democratic (3 seats), 13% Conservative (1 seat), 10% Green (0 seats)
Total: 46% Liberal (233 seats), 27% Conservative (78 seats), 15% New Democratic (18 seats), 7% Green (5 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the party that won them in 2015 for the sake of simplicity.

At the aggregate level, there have been only minor changes. The Liberals moved down from 241 to 233 seats, but this is still a supermajority in the House of Commons. The Conservatives have moved up in the projected seat count from 75 to 78, but this is still below 2015 levels. The NDP has moved up from 16 to 18, but this is still below half of 2015 levels. The Greens have gone up from 3 to 5, which would be a huge boon for their caucus if they could sustain that level of support. The Bloc Quebecois have seen their projected count go down from 8 to 4, which they won in 2011.

The Liberals are seeing their support rise in the East (Quebec and Atlantic Canada), but decline at various levels everywhere else (BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Ontario). This may be statistical noise, but it also may be a wakeup call for the Liberals to try to hold onto the west, especially in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, where they lost their lead.

The opposite of the Liberal movement is true for the Conservatives, who have gained in BC, Alberta, and Saskatchewan/Manitoba, held steady in Ontario, and declined in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. This is potentially a good sign for the party as the west is key to their electoral geography, but they have to become competitive in Ontario in order to have a shot at minority government status.

The NDP parallels the two major parties less – it gained in Alberta, Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, remained the same in British Columbia, but declined in Quebec. The fact that the NDP’s gains are mostly in areas where they were not already popular could be a good sign, but at this point they are miniscule. However, gains in Ontario are key possibly becoming a major contender again. It is a troubling sign, though, that they are facing declines in British Columbia and Quebec, two of their previous strongholds. They should probably look into that.

Seat Projection: Abacus Data Poll, May 20, 2016

Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid BC Poll, May 9, 2016

Ipsos Reid has released a poll detailing the state of the parties in British Columbia only four days after Insights West was in the field. It has a very different story from Insights West and even a different story from the last time it was in the field.

The Liberals are now in the lead with 42%. This is only a one point swing from Ipsos Reid’s May 2015 poll. However, the NDP has gone down from 44% support to 36%, placing it in second. Since the Liberals barely moved and the NDP has had a huge decline, odds are the change has little to do with the Liberals. Instead, it appears that the minor parties have gained from the NDP’s loss. The Conservatives have gone up 4 points to 11% and the Greens have gone up 2 points to 10%, which means that from the province-wide level it appears that the anti-Liberal vote is simply diverging.

Here is the seat projection using my model:
Vancouver: 44% Liberal (15 seats), 39% New Democratic (10 seats), 10% Conservative (0 seats), 6% Green (0 seats), 1% Independents/Others (0 seats)
Vancouver Island: 39% New Democratic (8 seats), 32% Liberal (4 seats), 25% Green (2 seats), 4% Conservative (0 seats), 0% Independents/Others (0 seats)
Rest of BC: 44% Liberal (32 seats), 28% New Democratic (9 seats), 18% Conservative (4 seats), 9% Green (1 seat), 2% Independents/Others (0 seats)
Total: 42% Liberal (51 seats), 36% New Democratic (27 seats), 11% Conservative (4 seats), 10% Green (3 seats), 1% Independents/Others (0 seats)

With these numbers, it appears that there is bad, bad news for the NDP. A year before the last election, it was in the lead with 50% and the Liberals and Conservatives looked like they were splitting second place. Even throughout the campaign the NDP was leading, and instead the Liberals won a stunning upset.

Here, the Liberals are plainly in the lead, and not just in the interior like last time. It has opened up a lead in Vancouver that it did not have before, and the party is projected to make gains in Vancouver Island, a longtime NDP stronghold. For a party that has been in power for 15 years and therefore vulnerable to the winds of change, it is a bad sign for the opposition that the incumbent is this strong.

At this point, the NDP should work hard on consolidating Vancouver and Vancouver Island at all costs. If they want a hope of even winning a minority government, this is what they have to do. What to do in the Interior is a little less clear. Depending on their resource level, they may very well be able to beat back Liberal leads in the Interior while increasing resources in the other regions. However, if they must make a choice they should abandon the Interior. It appears that quite a bit of anti-establishment vote is not going to the NDP, who may not be ideologically in line with the region, but rather to the Conservatives, who are not so ideologically opposed to the Liberals but represent a change. The Conservatives successfully taking on the Liberals in the Interior while the NDP takes on the Liberals in the cities is a gamble for the NDP, but may be well worth it.

However, there is one major obstacle for the NDP in even holding steady: the Greens in Vancouver Island. They have been doing quite well in the area, and with hard work and determination they could overtake the NDP in the region. Since the Greens and NDP are competing for the same voter base, any gain the Greens make is most likely a loss for the NDP, though they are taking small but meaningful support from disgruntled Liberals as well. Any attempt on the part of  the Greens to make gains anywhere will set the NDP back. The NDP, which still has a lot of baggage from the 1990s, has to make itself look credible in the face of an alternative that has far less dirt.

Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid BC Poll, May 9, 2016