Seat Projection: Forum Poll, August 24, 2015

In the past few weeks, Forum has showed the NDP remaining steady despite other polling firms indicating a possible close three-way race. In this week’s poll, they have dropped a bombshell – the Conservatives are in third place. Now, this has happened before, but previously, this has been a close third and in reality, a statistical tie for second or first place. Not this time. The NDP is in a wide lead with 40%, the Liberals are in second with 30%, and the Conservatives are in a very distant third with 23%. The Greens and Bloc each have 3% support nationwide.

With last week’s poll, I projected 145 seats for the NDP, 108 for the Conservatives, 75 for the Liberals, 7 for the Bloc Quebecois, and 3 for the Greens.

This week, Forum’s seat projection shows the NDP having 174 seats, the Conservatives 87, the Liberals 76, and the Greens 1.

Here is this week’s projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 39% New Democratic (24 seats), 32% Liberal (11 seats), 21% Conservative (7 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 42% Conservative (23 seats), 32% New Democratic (7 seats), 22% Liberal (4 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 41% New Democratic (17 seats), 28% Conservative (6 seats), 28% Liberal (5 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 36% New Democratic (55 seats), 33% Liberal (40 seats), 26% Conservative (25 seats), 3% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 54% New Democratic (67 seats), 19% Liberal (5 seats), 14% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 11% Conservative (3 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 47% Liberal (24 seats), 27% New Democratic (4 seats), 21% Conservative (4 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 40% New Democratic (175 seats), 30% Liberal (89 seats), 23% Conservative (70 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 3% Green (1 seat)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I am going to keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

For the first time in months, a party has been projected to win a majority – the NDP with 175 out of 338 seats. The Liberals would form the Official Opposition with 89 seats, not the government that they hoped for under Trudeau, but certainly a net gain from their distant third of 2011. The Conservatives would go from a majority government down to third party status with 70 seats. The Bloc Quebecois would have 3 seats, similar to its current total, and the Greens would take one seat.

There is no indication as to whether these numbers will hold. However, if the NDP can retain its numbers in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec, then a majority is in their sights.

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Seat Projection: Forum Poll, August 24, 2015

Seat Projection: Angus Reid Poll, August 24, 2015

It has been almost two months since Angus Reid was in the field with a poll. It has just recently released one showing the results of a survey done on August 24. Last time around, the NDP had 36%, the Conservatives had 33%, the Liberals had 23%, and the Bloc Quebecois and Greens had 4% each. This time around, the numbers have held, with the exception of the Conservatives dropping from 33% to 32%.

Last time around, the NDP was projected to get 142 seats, the Conservatives 135, the Liberals 54, the Bloc Quebecois 4, and the Greens 3.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 37% New Democratic (21 seats), 32% Conservative (13 seats), 22% Liberal (6 seats), 8% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 58% Conservative (31 seats), 21% New Democratic (2 seats), 13% Liberal (1 seat), 7% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 48% Conservative (11 seats), 31% New Democratic (3 seats), 18% Liberal (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 44% Conservative (9 seats), 27% Liberal (3 seats), 24% New Democratic (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 33% Conservative (51 seats), 33% New Democratic (40 seats), 28% Liberal (27 seats), 5% Green (3 seats)
Quebec: 51% New Democratic (66 seats), 17% Liberal (4 seats), 17% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 14% Conservative (4 seats), 0% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 39% Liberal (18 seats), 30% New Democratic (8 seats), 25% Conservative (6 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 36% New Democratic (143 seats), 32% Conservative (127 seats), 23% Liberal (59 seats), 4% Green (5 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats)

*No information as to the Territories, so their seats stay with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

The NDP are almost exactly in the place they were two months ago, a plurality with 143 seats – a gain of one. The Conservatives decreased 8 seats to 127. These were mostly picked up by the Liberals, who gained 5 seats to now have 59. However, the Greens picked up 2 as well and have now increased to 5. The Bloc remains projected to get 4 seats.

Seat Projection: Angus Reid Poll, August 24, 2015

Seat Projection: Nanos Poll, August 21, 2015

Since Nanos was last in the field, there has been very small movement between the parties, but enough to change the order. The Conservatives remain in 1st place in the popular vote with 30.1%, but this is down 1.7% from last time. The Liberals have gone from third to second place with 29.9% of the vote, an increase of 1.2%. The NDP has increased 0.1% to 29.1%, but has now dropped down to an incredibly close third. The Greens have dropped 0.1% to 5.2%, and the Bloc has gained 0.2% to now have 4.7%.

Last week, I projected the Conservatives to have 147 seats, the NDP 105, the Liberals 73, the Bloc Quebecois 9, and the Greens 4.

Here is this week’s seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 38% New Democratic (23 seats), 31% Liberal (10 seats), 23% Conservative (8 seats), 8% Green (1 seat)
Prairies: 48% Conservative (48 seats), 23% New Democratic (7 seats), 21% Liberal (7 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 40% Conservative (70 seats), 32% Liberal (31 seats), 21% New Democratic (17 seats), 7% Green (3 seats)
Quebec: 37% New Democratic (46 seats), 28% Liberal (17 seats), 19% Bloc Quebecois (10 seats), 12% Conservative (5 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 47% Liberal (21 seats), 35% New Democratic (7 seats), 18% Conservative (4 seats), 0% Green (0 seats)
Total: 30.1% Conservative (137 seats), 29.9% Liberal (86 seats), 29.1% New Democratic (101 seats), 5.2% Green (4 seats), 4.7% Bloc Quebecois (10 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

There is a little more visible movement with the seat count. The Conservatives remain with a plurality but drop 10 seats to 137, and the NDP is in third in the popular vote but only loses 4 seats and is still second place in the seat count with 101. The Liberals get the lion’s share of the losses of the Conservatives and NDP and get 86 seats, an increase of 13. The Bloc Quebecois gains one seat and now has 10, 2 short of Official Party Status. The Greens remain the same at 4 seats.

Since last week, the Conservatives have made no significant gains and have had some declines in the Prairies and Ontario. This is not necessarily a bad sign for them, since these are comedowns from unusual highs in their numbers. However, they should watch the Prairies and Ontario and try to maintain these last strongholds.

The NDP has made some marginal gains in the Prairies, but those gains are diluted by losses in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada. Again, these are not of much impact, but it is unusual that both the Conservatives and NDP are declining somewhat in their respective strongholds.

The only significant move the Liberals have made are gains in the Prairies and Ontario. The Prairies represent largely untapped ground for the Liberals, and if they can eat away at the Conservatives’ stronghold while keeping the NDP’s numbers low, they can eat away at the Conservative lead. If they are able to open up a lead in Ontario, then they have a way to a plurality.

Seat Projection: Nanos Poll, August 21, 2015

Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, August 17, 2015

A month ago, Forum took a poll of Ontarian preferences at the provincial level. The NDP under longtime leader Andrea Horwath last time around had 35%, the Progressive Conservatives under new leader Pat Brown had 33%, and the governing Liberals were in third with 26%. The Greens had 5%, but this did not translate into seats. These results pegged the NDP with a minority government at 49 seats, the Progressive Conservatives in the Official Opposition with 37 seats, and the Liberals the third party (with balance of power potential that is unlikely to be used) with 21 seats.

This time around, it is the Progressive Conservatives who have 35% and the NDP with 33%, trading each other’s previous result. The Liberals remain the same with 26%, and the Greens have dropped one point to 4%.

Forum predicts that the Conservatives will have a majority with 54 seats, the NDP in Opposition with 34, and the Liberals in third with 19.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:

Eastern Ontario: 35% Progressive Conservative (6 seats), 33% Liberal (5 seats), 27% New Democratic (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Toronto*: 34% Progressive Conservative (9 seats), 30% New Democratic (7 seats), 28% Liberal (6 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
905: 40% Progressive Conservative (25 seats), 35% New Democratic (9 seats), 22% Liberal (6 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Southwest Ontario: 36% New Democratic (8 seats), 33% Progressive Conservative (11 seats), 23% Liberal (3 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 35% New Democratic (5 seats), 34% Progressive Conservative (4 seats), 22% Liberal (2 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)
Total: 35% Progressive Conservative (55 seats), 33% New Democratic (32 seats), 26% Liberal (20 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)

*The 416 and GTA results were combined, since I had the numbers available to me.

With my numbers, the Progressive Conservatives have 55 seats, a slim majority and an increase of 18 seats from the last poll. The NDP would have 32 seats, a decrease of 17 from last time. The Liberals would win 20 seats, a decrease of one from last time. The Greens would remain shut out of the legislature.

If current trends hold, the Liberals may be looking at an end to their power for a long while, and it would be between the NDP and PC’s to succeed the Liberals.

Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, August 17, 2015

Seat Projection: Forum Poll, August 19, 2015

Forum, previously one of the pollsters slow to the party when it came to the NDP’s surge, now has the NDP continuing its lead whilst other pollsters (namely Leger Marketing and Nanos) are predicting a narrowing race. In their latest poll, the NDP remains in first with 34%, the same as last week. The Conservatives and Liberals have each gained one percentage point to have 29% and 28% support, respectively. The Bloc Quebecois declined 2 points and is now at 4% support nationwide, and the Greens remain at 4%.

Last time around, Forum projected the NDP to have 125 seats, the Conservatives 120, the Liberals 89, the Bloc 3, and the Greens 1, and I projected the NDP to have 131 seats, the Conservatives 107, the Liberals 87, the Bloc 11, and the Greens 2.

This time around, Forum has projected the NDP to have 133 seats, the Conservatives 123, the Liberals 79, the Bloc 2, and the Greens 1.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 39% New Democratic (25 seats), 28% Liberal (8 seats), 24% Conservative (8 seats), 8% Green (1 seat)
Alberta: 47% Conservative (26 seats), 27% New Democratic (5 seats), 20% Liberal (3 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 42% Conservative (18 seats), 28% New Democratic (5 seats), 26% Liberal (5 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 33% Conservative (42 seats), 32% Liberal (39 seats), 31% New Democratic (38 seats), 4% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 40% New Democratic (53 seats), 23% Liberal (12 seats), 17% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 16% Conservative (6 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 39% New Democratic (18 seats), 32% Liberal (8 seats), 25% Conservative (6 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 34% New Democratic (145 seats), 29% Conservative (108 seats), 28% Liberal (75 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 4% Green (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I am going to keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

With my numbers, the NDP has 145 seats, 14 more than last time. The Conservatives have 108 seats, one more than last time. The Liberals have 75 seats, 14 less than last time, at the national level appearing to be picked up by the NDP. The Bloc Quebecois decrease 4 to 7 seats, and the Greens have 3 seats, an increase of 1. The status quo remains – the NDP and Conservatives are the top two parties, and the Liberals are the potential kingmaker, in third and ideologically between the Conservatives and NDP.

The NDP has increased in British Columbia, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, remained the same in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and declined in Alberta and Ontario. These are mostly good signs for the NDP – they are consolidating their strongholds, and beating out the Liberals in the one area where they have led the pack. The declines in Alberta and Ontario are miniscule, and in Alberta’s case the party was already at a low level of federal support. In Ontario, it still remains a three way race.

The Conservatives have largely remained the same. However, they have made slight gains in Alberta and Ontario, and slight declines in British Columbia and Quebec. They are at a very difficult crossroads with a low support ceiling and the almost certain loss of British Columbia and Atlantic Canada. The way to a solid plurality is through Ontario – they have to break the three-way deadlock that exists in the seat-rich province.

The Liberals have possibly the easiest road to power, as was said a few days ago, but they have yet to capitalize on it. They are in second place in many places, but are not leading anywhere. They have made slight gains in Ontario and Quebec, but have declined slightly in British Columbia and sharply in Atlantic Canada, losing their lead to the NDP. This is not a good sign for them, They have to take back Atlantic Canada and gain a lead in Ontario, where they are beating the NDP – by a hair, but by something.

Seat Projection: Forum Poll, August 19, 2015

Seat Projection: Abacus Data Poll, August 17, 2015

It has been a while since Abacus Data was in the field, but now that it’s a federal election things may change. The last time they took a poll was on July 6. They had the NDP at 32%, the Conservatives at 29%, the Liberals at 27%, and the Greens and Bloc with 6% each. As of their August 17 poll, not much has changed. The NDP, bucking the other pollsters’ trend of a narrowing three-way race, is now with a wider lead at 35%. The Conservatives remain in second with 29%, unchanged. The Liberals have dropped a point to 26%, the Greens remain at 6%, and the Bloc drops to 3%, half of its last result. Last time around, the NDP had a narrow plurality with 122 seats, the Conservatives had 118, the Liberals had 82, the Bloc had 11, and the Greens had 5.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 34% New Democratic (14 seats), 32% Conservative (18 seats), 24% Liberal (8 seats), 9% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 60% Conservative (31 seats), 22% New Democratic (2 seats), 14% Liberal (1 seat), 4% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 47% Conservative (21 seats), 26% New Democratic (4 seats), 24% Liberal (3 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 32% New Democratic (39 seats), 30% Conservative (42 seats), 30% Liberal (36 seats), 7% Green (4 seats)
Quebec: 47% New Democratic (63 seats), 20% Liberal (8 seats), 13% Conservative (3 seats), 13% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 6% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 45% Liberal (19 seats), 36% New Democratic (9 seats), 18% Conservative (4 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Total: 35% New Democratic (132 seats), 29% Conservative (121 seats), 26% Liberal (75 seats), 6% Green (7 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, their three seats will have the same MP’s in the total for the sake of simplicity.

According to my numbers, the NDP has a plurality with 132 seats, 10 more than last time, the Conservatives have 121, a gain of 3, the Liberals have 75, a loss of 7, the Greens have 5, a gain of 2, and the Bloc Quebecois have 3, a loss of 8. It seems that the NDP, Conservatives, and Greens have gained at the Liberals’ and Bloc’s expense. It is largely the same situation as last time – the largest two parties in need of the Liberals to give them a majority.

The NDP’s major gain was in Quebec – a stronghold of theirs. Much of this comes from the decline of the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois. They have made serious declines in British Columbia, though since every other poll has the NDP with a wide lead, this may be an outlier. In the rest of Canada, there has been little movement.

The Conservatives have made significant gains in British Columbia (though it may be an outlier), and to a smaller extent in Alberta and Saskatchewan/Manitoba. Ontario and Atlantic Canada are places where the Conservatives have slightly declined, and Quebec has given the Conservatives serious declines.

The Liberals have remained the same everywhere except in Quebec, where they have declined significantly. The Bloc has also made significant declines in Quebec.

The Greens have made gains in Quebec, a province where they previously have had little support. This is likely due to MP Jose Nunez-Melo’s decision to run as a Green, which means he may have a relatively easy time being re-elected in his riding.

Seat Projection: Abacus Data Poll, August 17, 2015

Seat Projection: Nanos Poll, August 14, 2015

The three way race that Nanos had last week has tightened considerably. The Conservatives retain their narrow lead with 31.9%. However, virtually tied for second (virtually tied for first considering the margin for error) are the NDP with 29% and the Liberals with 28.7%. The Greens have 5.3% and the Bloc Quebecois has 4.5%. Last time around, I projected that the Conservatives had 140 seats, the NDP 109, the Liberals 77, the Bloc Quebecois 7, and the Greens 5.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 39% New Democratic (27 seats), 28% Liberal (8 seats), 26% Conservative (7 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Prairies: 53% Conservative (53 seats), 20% Liberal (4 seats), 19% New Democratic (4 seats), 7% Green (1 seat)
Ontario: 42% Conservative (77 seats), 29% Liberal (23 seats), 23% New Democratic (19 seats), 6% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 35% New Democratic (44 seats), 30% Liberal (19 seats), 18% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 12% Conservative (5 seats), 4% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 45% Liberal (19 seats), 38% New Democratic (10 seats), 16% Conservative (3 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31.9% Conservative (147 seats), 29% New Democratic (105 seats), 28.7% Liberal (73 seats), 5.3% Green (4 seats), 4.5% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

With this projection, the Conservatives have a plurality with 147 seats, 7 up from last week’s Nanos poll. The New Democrats would come in second with 105, down 4 seats. The Liberals would come in third with 73 seats, down 4. The Liberals, ideologically between the Conservatives and NDP can easily play kingmaker with either party. The Bloc Quebecois has 9, 2 more than last week, and the Greens have 4, one less.

The Conservatives, in regional terms, have opened up a significant lead in Ontario, which is crucial for them to gain a wide plurality. They have largely stagnated in the Prairies, which has been a consistent stronghold for them. They have also stagnated in areas that are proving to be perpetually unfriendly towards the Conservatives in this election – British Columbia, Quebec, in Atlantic Canada. Two of the three (British Columbia and Atlantic Canada) represent previous strongholds of the Conservative Party that have been lost to the NDP (British Columbia) or are third in a contest between the NDP and Liberals (Atlantic Canada). With these areas likely being permanently lost, we may be seeing the seat ceiling for Conservatives – and it’s not a majority.

The NDP has also hit a wall. It has made slight gains in British Columbia, a current stronghold, and Atlantic Canada, a competitive area with the Liberals that is a moral victory if won. However, it has made very little inroads outside of its strongholds and is declining a bit in Quebec as the Liberals are rising. Its best hope for a plurality would be returning Ontario to a three way race and gaining some seats in weaker areas.

The Liberals have hit a snag in their strategy, as well. They are competitive in many regions but only leading in one (Atlantic Canada), and even that area is being contested currently. They may have the easiest path to a wide plurality, since they are in second place in the rest of the country, but they have yet to break through in any of them. They have to break through somewhere, preferably seat-rich Ontario, in order to gain a plurality.

Seat Projection: Nanos Poll, August 14, 2015