In the past few weeks, Forum has showed the NDP remaining steady despite other polling firms indicating a possible close three-way race. In this week’s poll, they have dropped a bombshell – the Conservatives are in third place. Now, this has happened before, but previously, this has been a close third and in reality, a statistical tie for second or first place. Not this time. The NDP is in a wide lead with 40%, the Liberals are in second with 30%, and the Conservatives are in a very distant third with 23%. The Greens and Bloc each have 3% support nationwide.
With last week’s poll, I projected 145 seats for the NDP, 108 for the Conservatives, 75 for the Liberals, 7 for the Bloc Quebecois, and 3 for the Greens.
This week, Forum’s seat projection shows the NDP having 174 seats, the Conservatives 87, the Liberals 76, and the Greens 1.
Here is this week’s projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 39% New Democratic (24 seats), 32% Liberal (11 seats), 21% Conservative (7 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 42% Conservative (23 seats), 32% New Democratic (7 seats), 22% Liberal (4 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 41% New Democratic (17 seats), 28% Conservative (6 seats), 28% Liberal (5 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 36% New Democratic (55 seats), 33% Liberal (40 seats), 26% Conservative (25 seats), 3% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 54% New Democratic (67 seats), 19% Liberal (5 seats), 14% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 11% Conservative (3 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 47% Liberal (24 seats), 27% New Democratic (4 seats), 21% Conservative (4 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 40% New Democratic (175 seats), 30% Liberal (89 seats), 23% Conservative (70 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 3% Green (1 seat)
*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I am going to keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.
For the first time in months, a party has been projected to win a majority – the NDP with 175 out of 338 seats. The Liberals would form the Official Opposition with 89 seats, not the government that they hoped for under Trudeau, but certainly a net gain from their distant third of 2011. The Conservatives would go from a majority government down to third party status with 70 seats. The Bloc Quebecois would have 3 seats, similar to its current total, and the Greens would take one seat.
There is no indication as to whether these numbers will hold. However, if the NDP can retain its numbers in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec, then a majority is in their sights.