Yukon Election: Expectations vs. Reality

So, as promised, I will do a post-mortem of the predictions for the Yukon General Election. The results were not all that accurately predicted by my algorithm, but I’m not surprised – the last poll done on the election was nine months ago.

Expectations:
13 Liberal
3 NDP
1 Yukon

Reality:
11 Liberal
6 Yukon
2 NDP

I also did not have the right amount of seats predicted. If I did, then it would’ve been 15 Liberal, 3 NDP, and 1 Yukon.

The only thing that it predicted accurately was the NDP seat total. However, it totally underestimated the incumbency advantage of the Yukon Party.

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Yukon Election: Expectations vs. Reality

Projection: Yukon General Election, 2016

Hello all, it’s been a while. I no longer have time to update this blog regularly, but I did want to do my projection of the Yukon general election in 2016. I will also do a post-mortem of the projection. It should be noted that the last poll to be done on this election was 9 months ago, and my calculation is based solely on that poll. Additionally, there is no regional data.

So here is the final projection for tonight:
13 Liberal
3 New Democratic
1 Yukon Party

If this projection is true, the Yukon Party will really suffer tonight, and the New Democrats will remain in opposition with reduced status. Undoubtedly, Sandy Silver would become premier.

Projection: Yukon General Election, 2016