Seat Projection: Insights West British Columbia Poll, November 14, 2015

Insights West has come out with a new poll on the state of British Columbia politics – the first in around six months. Previously, the firm had the NDP at 43%, the Liberals at 37%, the Greens at 10%, the Conservatives at 6%, and other parties at 4%. This would have put the NDP at 52 seats, the Liberals at 30, the Greens at 2, the Conservatives at 1, and other parties at 0.

Now, it appears that according to Insights West, both the NDP and Liberals have lost ground to the Greens. The NDP still leads, but at 39%, the Liberals have dipped to 34%, the Greens have risen to 16%, the Conservatives have stayed roughly the same at 7%, and support for other parties remains at 4%.

Here is the seat projection using my model:
Vancouver: 39% New Democratic (13 seats), 38% Liberal (10 seats), 15% Green (2 seats), 7% Conservative (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats)
Victoria: 37% New Democratic (10 seats), 25% Green (2 seats), 24% Liberal (2 seats), 10% Conservative (0 seats), 4% Other (0 seats)
Rest of BC: 38% New Democratic (26 seats), 29% Liberal (13 seats), 16% Green (4 seats), 13% Other (3 seats), 4% Conservative (0 seats)
Total: 39% New Democratic (49 seats), 34% Liberal (25 seats), 16% Green (8 seats), 7% Conservative (0 seats), 4% Other (3 seats)

With these numbers, the NDP would form a majority government with 49 seats, the Liberals would be reduced to the Opposition for the first time since 2001 with 25 seats, the Greens would rise to 8 seats, and other parties and independents would get 3 seats. The Conservatives would remain shut out of the legislature due to inefficiency of vote.

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Seat Projection: Insights West British Columbia Poll, November 14, 2015

Seat Projections: Latest Polls for Newfoundland & Labrador, November 28, 2015

The general election campaign for Newfoundland & Labrador is in its final weekend. Three different polls have come out this week, mostly showing a landslide victory for the Liberals. One is from Corporate Research Associates (CRA), which has the Liberals at 67%, the Progressive Conservatives (PC) at 22%, and the New Democrats (NDP) at 10%.Abacus Data has the Liberals at 64%, the PC’s at 22%, and the NDP at 13%. However, according to Forum‘s latest poll, the landslide might not be as big as once thought. The polling firm has the Liberals at 52%, the PC’s at 29%, and the NDP at 19%.

Here are the seat projections for each poll:

Corporate Research Associates:
37 Liberal
3 Progressive Conservative
0 NDP

Abacus Data:
Avalon/St. John’s: 57% Liberal (15 seats), 25% Progressive Conservative (2 seats), 18% New Democratic (1 seat)
East: 72% Liberal (4 seats), 17% Progressive Conservative (0 seats), 9% New Democratic (0 seats)
Central: 63% Liberal (6 seats), 30% Progressive Conservative (1 seat), 5% New Democratic (0 seats)
West: 78% Liberal (7 seats), 12% New Democratic (0 seats), 10% Progressive Conservative (0 seats)
Labrador: 68% Liberal (4 seats), 19% Progressive Conservative (0 seats), 12% New Democratic (0 seats)
Total: 64% Liberal (36 seats), 22% Progressive Conservative (3 seats), 13% New Democratic (1 seat)

Forum:
Avalon’s/St. John’s: 49% Liberal (15 seats), 31% Progressive Conservative (5 seats), 20% New Democratic (2 seats)
Central: 59% Liberal (7 seats), 25% Progressive Conservative (0 seats), 16% New Democratic (0 seats):
West: 67% Liberal (7 seats), 25% Progressive Conservative (0 seats), 8% New Democratic (0 seats)
Labrador: 46% New Democratic (3 seats), 32% Liberal (1 seat), 22% Progressive Conservative (0 seats)
Total: 52% Liberal (30 seats), 29% Progressive Conservative (5 seats), 19% New Democratic (5 seats)

It seems that even with the Liberals’ lower total in the Forum poll, the Liberals are set to have at least 30 seats. The Progressive Conservatives would likely form the Opposition, and the NDP would be lucky to have a seat after this election’s over. I do not necessarily trust Forum’s results on Labrador since the sample size was only 23 people, and it would be highly unusual for the NDP to surge in Labrador since it did not have any seats in 2011.

However, there still is the rest of the weekend, and only on election day will I make my official predictions.

Seat Projections: Latest Polls for Newfoundland & Labrador, November 28, 2015

Seat Projection: Leger Marketing Quebec Poll, November 19, 2015

Leger Marketing has released a new poll, their first since June. There really has not been much movement. In the last poll, the Liberals had 36%. Now they have 35%. The rest of the parties remain the same: the Parti Quebecois is at 32%, the CAQ is at 20% and Quebec Solidaire is at 10%.

Here is the seat projection using my model:
Montreal: 43% Liberal (34 seats), 27% Parti Quebecois (9 seats), 17% Coalition Avenir Quebec (4 seats), 11% Quebec Solidaire (2 seats)
Quebec City: 35% Liberal (7 seats), 27% Coalition Avenir Quebec (2 seats), 24% Parti Quebecois (2 seats), 10% Quebec Solidaire (0 seats)
Rest of Quebec: 39% Parti Quebecois (39 seats), 26% Liberal (14 seats), 22% Coalition Avenir Quebec (10 seats), 9% Quebec Solidaire (2 seats)
Total: 35% Liberal (55 seats), 32% Parti Quebecois (50 seats), 20% Coalition Avenir Quebec (16 seats), 10% Quebec Solidaire (4 seats)

Despite the relative lack of change in the province-wide popular vote, the Liberals have certainly lost their advantage. The last Leger seat projection had the Liberals at a minority government with 61 seats, now they have 55. Those six seats were taken by the Parti Quebecois, who moved from 44 to 50. This is within striking distance of the Liberals. The CAQ and Quebec Solidaire remain at 16 seats and 4 seats, respectively.

Seat Projection: Leger Marketing Quebec Poll, November 19, 2015

Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, September 20, 2015

CROP did some polling back in September about the next Quebec election, though it appears I must have neglected it in my daily check for new polls. It has the Liberals at 37%, the Parti Quebecois at 30%, the CAQ at 18%, and Quebec Solidaire at 13%.

Here is the seat projection using my model:
Montreal: 39% Liberal (33 seats), 26% Parti Quebecois (8 seats), 17% Quebec Solidaire (4 seats), 16% Coalition Avenir Quebec (4 seats)
Quebec City: 35% Liberal (7 seats), 30% Parti Quebecois (3 seats), 19% Quebec Solidaire (1 seat), 14% Coalition Avenir Quebec (0 seats)
Rest of Quebec: 35% Liberal (31 seats), 34% Parti Quebecois (22 seats), 21% Coalition Avenir Quebec (9 seats), 8% Quebec Solidaire (3 seats)
Total: 37% Liberal (71 seats), 30% Parti Quebecois (33 seats), 18% Coalition Avenir Quebec (13 seats), 13% Quebec Solidaire (8 seats)

With these results in mind, the partisan landscape of the legislature slightly changes from the 2014 election. The Liberals and Parti Quebecois both benefit from the CAQ’s decline, and Quebec Solidaire increases its total to 8 seats in the legislature.

Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, September 20, 2015

Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid Ontario Poll, November 9, 2015

Ipsos Reid has released a poll this week that has the Liberals in first by a landslide for the first time in months. For most of 2015, the Liberals were suffering from low approval ratings and were even in third place in some cases.

Now, Ipsos Reid has the Liberals with 44%, the Progressive Conservatives are in second with 31%, and the NDP at 20%. The Greens bring up the rear with 4%.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
Eastern Ontario: 53% Liberal (12 seats), 29% Progressive Conservative (2 seats), 15% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Toronto: 56% Liberal (23 seats), 28% Progressive Conservative (4 seats), 15% New Democratic (1 seat), 1% Green (0 seats)
905: 42% Liberal (20 seats), 34% Progressive Conservative (9 seats), 18% New Democratic (3 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Southwest Ontario: 37% Liberal (13 seats), 31% Progressive Conservative (5 seats), 26% New Democratic (4 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 37% New Democratic (5 seats), 35% Progressive Conservative (4 seats), 28% Liberal (2 seats), 0% Green (0 seats)
Total: 44% Liberal (70 seats), 31% Progressive Conservative (24 seats), 20% New Democratic (13 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)

With these results in mind, the landscape of Ontario’s legislature will look a lot like 2003 and 2007. The Liberals would have 70 seats, retaining government for a fifth straight term. The Progressive Conservatives would have 24 seats, remaining in a reduced opposition. The NDP would be reduced to 13 seats after a few years in ascendancy. The Greens would remain shut out of the legislature.

Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid Ontario Poll, November 9, 2015

Seat Projection: MQO Newfoundland and Labrador Poll, November 11, 2015

The Liberal landslide continues with MQO’s latest poll on Newfoundland and Labrador. Last time they were in the field was a little over a year ago (October 14). Back then, the Liberals had 62%, the Progressive Conservatives had 28%, and the NDP had 11%.

Now, the Liberals have a whopping 74%, the Progressive Conservatives have been reduced to 17%, and the NDP has slightly declined to 9%.

This results in a seat projection of near unanimity for the Liberals (39 out of the 40 seats). The Progressive Conservatives, currently the governing party, will be reduced to a single seat in the legislature. The NDP would be completely shut out for the first time since the 1989 election.

Seat Projection: MQO Newfoundland and Labrador Poll, November 11, 2015

Seat Projection: Insights West Alberta Poll, November 12, 2015

Yesterday, Insights West released a new poll on the Alberta political landscape. It has some constrasts with Mainstreet Research. Unlike Mainstreet, this poll places the NDP in the lead with 33%, and Wildrose remaining in second with 28%. The Progressive Conservatives remain hovering at around 21%. However, compared to Mainstreet Research, the Liberals are so much more in the running – they have 13% support in this poll. The Alberta Party remains at 2%.

Here is the seat projection for this poll using my model:
Calgary: 29% Wildrose (8 seats), 25% New Democratic (8 seats), 23% Progressive Conservative (6 seats), 17% Liberal (4 seats), 3% Alberta (0 seats)
Edmonton: 41% New Democratic (15 seats), 24% Wildrose (3 seats), 15% Progressive Conservative (2 seats), 14% Liberal (1 seat), 0% Alberta (0 seats)
Rest of Alberta: 36% New Democratic (24 seats), 28% Wildrose (9 seats), 26% Progressive Conservative (7 seats), 6% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Alberta (0 seats)
Total: 33% New Democratic (47 seats), 28% Wildrose (20 seats), 21% Progressive Conservative (15 seats), 13% Liberal (5 seats), 2% Alberta (0 seats)

With these numbers, the NDP would remain in a majority with 47 out of 87 seats. Wildrose would take a slight hit, but remain in Opposition at 20 seats. The Progressive Conservatives and Liberals would rebound somewhat with 15 and 5 seats, respectively. The Alberta Party would get shut out of the legislature.

Seat Projection: Insights West Alberta Poll, November 12, 2015