Seat Projection: Mainstreet Manitoba Poll, March 21, 2016

The latest Mainstreet poll on the Manitoba election campaign reveals that on the provincial level, the partisan landscape remains quite similar compared to last week (44% Progressive Conservative, 24% New Democratic, 24% Liberal, 7% Green).

Last week’s Mainstreet poll projected 32 Progressive Conservatives, 16 NDP seats, 8 Liberal seats, and 1 Green seat.

Here is the seat projection for the poll:
Winnipeg: 33% Progressive Conservative (12 seats), 32% New Democratic (14 seats), 27% Liberal (8 seats), 8% Green (1 seat)
Not Winnipeg: 60% Progressive Conservative (20 seats), 21% Liberal (2 seats), 14% New Democratic (0 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 44% Progressive Conservative (32 seats), 24% New Democratic (14 seats), 24% Liberal (10 seats), 7% Green (1 seat)

This time around, there has been little change. The Progressive Conservatives remain projected to get 32 seats. However, the NDP has dropped 2 and the Liberals have gained 2, indicating that momentum may be swaying slightly towards the Liberals. In addition, the NDP has fallen into 2nd place amid slight gains for the Conservatives and Liberals.

The Progressive Conservatives remain firmly in 1st place, and unless any major change happens they should be forming a majority government. In order for the NDP to remain competitive for 2nd place (winning is impossible unless it gets its dismal numbers outside of Winnipeg back up), it must consolidate itself in Winnipeg and beat back both a Conservative and a Liberal takeover. If the Liberals wish to form the Opposition, they have to decisively displace the NDP as the opposition to the PC’s in the city. The Greens should continue to fight in Winnipeg if they wish to get their first seat.

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Seat Projection: Mainstreet Manitoba Poll, March 21, 2016

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Saskatchewan Poll, March 17, 2016

Mainstreet has released a new poll dealing with the Saskatchewan provincial election, which is quickly approaching. It shows a pretty stable partisan landscape – the Saskatchewan Party is in the lead with 53%, which is considerably less than the 64% they had in 2011. However, the NDP is in second with 35%, which is only slightly more than their 32% total in 2011. Most of the SK vote likely went to the Liberals, who have rebounded since 2011 to 8%. The Greens are in fourth with 4%.

Last time around, Forum’s poll had a projection of 50 seats for the Saskatchewan Party, and 11 seats for the NDP. The Mainstreet poll had 46 SK seats and 15 NDP seats.

Here is the seat projection for this poll:
Regina: 48% Saskatchewan (8 seats), 39% New Democratic (4 seats), 7% Green (0 seats), 6% Liberal (0 seats)
Saskatoon: 55% Saskatchewan (10 seats), 39% New Democratic (4 seats), 3% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Rest of Saskatchewan: 54% Saskatchewan (29 seats), 32% New Democratic (6 seats), 11% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 53% Saskatchewan (47 seats), 35% New Democratic (14 seats), 8% Liberal (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)

The Saskatchewan Party has gained 1 projected seat since the last Mainstreet poll, and the NDP has lost 1 projected seat. However, both results leave parties with some solace. The Saskatchewan Party will return with a strong majority for a third term, enabling them to govern until at least 2020. The NDP would have its first gain in the seat count since 2003, indicating that their support is no longer in free-fall. The Liberals, though they have gained quite a bit in the popular vote, are still lagging behind in the cities. Their best bet to gain representation is to eat into major party support in rural Saskatchewan. The Greens remain shut out.

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Saskatchewan Poll, March 17, 2016

Seat Projections: Forum Research and Abacus Data Polls, March 15-18, 2016

Ever since the Liberals came to power in the 2015 election, they have been in an extended political honeymoon. This honeymoon continues, though with slightly less intensity, in the two polls that have been released in the last week by Forum and Abacus Data.

Here is the seat projection for the March 15 Forum poll*:
British Columbia: 47% Liberal (33 seats), 26% Conservative (5 seats), 21% New Democratic (4 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 58% Conservative (29 seats), 32% Liberal (5 seats), 6% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 44% Conservative (17 seats), 41% Liberal (11 seats), 10% New Democratic (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 46% Liberal (77 seats), 41% Conservative (40 seats), 10% New Democratic (4 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 49% Liberal (66 seats), 16% Conservative (4 seats), 16% New Democratic (4 seats), 16% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 60% Liberal (29 seats), 30% Conservative (3 seats), 7% New Democratic (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 46% Liberal (224 seats), 34% Conservative (98 seats), 12% New Democratic (12 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the March 18 Abacus Data poll*:
British Columbia: 46% Liberal (32 seats), 23% Conservative (5 seats), 20% New Democratic (4 seats), 10% Green (1 seat)
Alberta: 54% Conservative (29 seats), 28% Liberal (5 seats), 9% New Democratic (0 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 41% Liberal (11 seats), 37% Conservative (14 seats), 12% New Democratic (2 seats), 10% Green (1 seat)
Ontario: 45% Liberal (85 seats), 35% Conservative (28 seats), 14% New Democratic (6 seats), 6% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 45% Liberal (60 seats), 23% New Democratic (9 seats), 16% Bloc Quebecois (6 seats), 12% Conservative (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 56% Liberal (29 seats), 22% Conservative (2 seats), 16% New Democratic (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 44% Liberal (225 seats), 29% Conservative (81 seats), 16% New Democratic (22 seats), 6% Green (4 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (6 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I gave their seats to the party that currently holds them for the sake of simplicity.

With these numbers in mind, the Liberals, despite slightly declining in the popular vote, still would get roughly 2/3 of the seats in the House of Commons, 41 more than what they currently have. The Conservatives would have a stable, if reduced, opposition status, likely making 25-30% their floor. Abacus and Forum tell two different stories about the NDP – Forum shows that the NDP is still at its floor in terms of public opinion. However, Abacus shows that they may be rebounding somewhat to their 2015 results, even if that rebound only results in a projected win of half the seats they got in 2015. The Bloc Quebecois in both polls would drop back to a single-digit seat count, and the Greens would either be shut out or gain in the legislature.

Strategically, the Liberals have to be somewhat worried about Ontario. The Conservatives are consolidating in the seat-rich province, and if they wish to maintain their huge popularity, they should focus on keeping it in Ontario. Another worrying sign is the beginnings of the Conservatives reasserting themselves in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. This is a departure from the Liberal lead since after the elections. The NDP, if it wishes to be a major force in Canadian politics again, needs to win back its former British Columbia and Quebec strongholds, as well as eat into the Liberal lead in Ontario, where it is losing badly.

Seat Projections: Forum Research and Abacus Data Polls, March 15-18, 2016

Seat Projection: Forum Manitoba Poll, March 13, 2016

Forum has now entered the Manitoba provincial race with a new poll. It shows the Progressive Conservative Party in a major lead with 46%. The Liberals and NDP are in a statistical tie for second with 23% and 22%, respectively. The Greens remain in fourth place with 8%.

Here is the seat projection with those numbers:
Winnipeg: 40% Progressive Conservative (22 seats), 26% Liberal (6 seats), 25% New Democratic (7 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)
Brandon: 61% Progressive Conservative (2 seats), 20% New Democratic (0 seats), 10% Liberal (0 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Rural Manitoba: 52% Progressive Conservative (18 seats), 20% Liberal (1 seat), 18% New Democratic (1 seat), 8% Green (0 seats)
Total: 46% Progressive Conservative (42 seats), 23% Liberal (7 seats), 22% New Democratic (8 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)

With these numbers, the Progressive Conservatives would form a convincing majority government with 42 out of 57 seats. The NDP would barely survive as Official Opposition with 8 seats out of 57, and the Liberals would remain a third party, increasing their presence from 1 to 7. However, a single crossing of the floor or by-election could switch who makes up the Official Opposition.

Seat Projection: Forum Manitoba Poll, March 13, 2016

Seat Projection: CRA Atlantic Canada Polls, March 11, 2016

Corporate Research Associates has done its quarterly polls of provincial politics in Atlantic Canada. Last quarter, each province was projected to have a Liberal landslide.

Here is this quarter’s projection for New Brunswick:
45% Liberal (35 seats, -9)
27% Progressive Conservative (9 seats, +5)
18% New Democratic (4 seats, +3)
8% Green (1 seat, +1)
2% People’s Alliance (0 seats)

Here is this quarter’s projection for Newfoundland and Labrador:
66% Liberal (38 seats, +7)
23% Progressive Conservative (2 seats, -5)
11% New Democratic (0 seats, -2)
0% Green (0 seats, =)

Here is this quarter’s projection for Nova Scotia:
56% Liberal (45 seats, -2)
23% Progressive Conservative (4 seats, +2)
16% New Democratic (2 seats, =)
5% Green (0 seats, =)

Here is this quarter’s projection for Prince Edward Island:
61% Liberal (26 seats, =)
19% Progressive Conservative (1 seat, =)
11% Green (0 seats, =)
9% New Democratic (0 seats, =)

*In the parentheses are changes from last quarter for NB, NS, and PEI, and change from last election for NL.

With these numbers, it appears for 3 of the 4 provinces, there would still be giant liberal landslides if the election were held tomorrow. The only anomaly is New Brunswick, where all opposition parties have gained at the Liberals’ expense.

Seat Projection: CRA Atlantic Canada Polls, March 11, 2016

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Manitoba Poll, March 14, 2016

A new Mainstreet poll is out today detailing the state of the parties in Manitoba. The Progressive Conservatives remain in a lead, but it is reduced from 50% to 43%. Its losses have largely gone to the NDP, who has gone up 6 points to 27%, with a few going to the Liberals, who have gone up 1 point to 24%. The Greens have also gained a point and are now at 7%.

Last time around, the Progressive Conservatives were projected to win 42 seats, with the Liberals and NDP winning 8 and 7, respectively.

Here is the seat projection for this poll:
Winnipeg: 34% New Democratic (16 seats), 32% Progressive Conservative (11 seats), 26% Liberal (7 seats), 8% Green (1 seat)
Not Winnipeg: 62% Progressive Conservative (21 seats), 19% Liberal (1 seat), 15% New Democratic (0 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 43% Progressive Conservative (32 seats), 27% New Democratic (16 seats), 24% Liberal (8 seats), 7% Green (1 seat)

With these numbers, the Progressive Conservatives would have a majority government with 32 seats, which is still a huge increase from 2011 but not as much as it was in 2015 and the early part of 2016. The NDP is in a decisive second with 16 seats, all in Winnipeg, which they now lead in. The Liberals remain at 8 seats, and the Greens are now projected to win their first seat in Winnipeg.

At this point, the chessboard for the parties is moved, and most of the fight centers on Winnipeg. For the Progressive Conservatives to win a landslide, for the NDP to have a large opposition or even possibly form a minority government, and for the Liberals to displace the NDP as official opposition, they all need to make serious inroads into Winnipeg. The PC’s probably have Winnipeg locked up for now, but if the Liberals consolidate their support, they can win a few extra seats outside of Winnipeg.

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Manitoba Poll, March 14, 2016

Seat Projections: Forum and Mainstreet Saskatchewan Polls, March 7-8, 2016

Hello all, sorry for the inactivity. I have been sick with the flu and decided to take a few days to recouperate. However, I am doing mostly better so onto more polls! As of the last Mainstreet poll, the incumbent Saskatchewan Party was projected to win a 3rd straight term in government with a whopping 50 out of 61 seats, with the opposition NDP taking the other 11.

In a March 7 Forum poll, the Saskatchewan Party leads with 57%, the NDP is in second with 33%, and the Liberals and Greens bring up the rear with 7% and 3%, respectively.

In a March 8 Mainstreet poll, the Saskatchewan Party leads with 51%, the NDP is in a closer second with 37%, the Liberals have 8%, and the Greens have 3%.

Here is the seat projection with the Forum poll:
Regina: 52% Saskatchewan (9 seats), 36% New Democratic (3 seats), 9% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatoon: 50% Saskatchewan (10 seats), 39% New Democratic (4 seats), 8% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Rural North: 61% Saskathcewan (13 seats), 32% New Democratic (2 seats), 4% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Rural South: 64% Saskatchewan (18 seats), 27% New Democratic (2 seats), 7% Liberal (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 57% Saskatchewan (50 seats), 33% New Democratic (11 seats), 7% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)

Here is the seat projection with the Mainstreet poll:
Regina: 44% Saskatchewan (7 seats), 44% New Democratic (5 seats), 6% Liberal (0 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Saskatoon: 53% Saskatchewan (10 seats), 41% New Democratic (4 seats), 3% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Rest of Saskatchewan: 53% Saskatchewan (29 seats), 33% New Democratic (6 seats), 11% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 51% Saskatchewan (46 seats), 37% New Democratic (15 seats), 8% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)

Seat Projections: Forum and Mainstreet Saskatchewan Polls, March 7-8, 2016