Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, December 14, 2015

CROP has come out with another opinion poll on Quebec. It shows the governing Liberals with 37%, the opposition Parti Quebecois at 30%, the CAQ at 17%, and Quebec Solidaire at 13%.

The last pollster in the field was Leger Marketing a month ago, which showed the Liberals with 35%, the PQ at 32%, the CAQ at 20%, and QS with 10%. There has been some movement in favor of the Liberals and QS and some away from the PQ and CAQ, but all of it could very well be statistical noise.

My model projected with Leger’s poll 55 Liberal seats, 50 PQ seats, 16 CAQ seats, and 4 QS seats.

Here is the seat projection for the latest CROP poll:
Montreal: 41% Liberal (34 seats), 26% Parti Quebecois (8 seats), 15% Coalition Avenir Quebec (4 seats), 13% Quebec Solidaire (3 seats)
Quebec City: 33% Parti Quebecois (6 seats), 27% Coalition Avenir Quebec (2 seats), 25% Liberal (3 seats), 12% Quebec Solidaire (0 seats)
Rest of Quebec: 34% Liberal (32 seats), 34% Parti Quebecois (22 seats), 17% Coalition Avenir Quebec (7 seats), 13% Quebec Solidaire (4 seats)
Total: 37% Liberal (69 seats), 30% Parti Quebecois (36 seats), 17% Coalition Avenir Quebec (13 seats), 13% Quebec Solidaire (7 seats)

With these numbers, the Liberals are back in majority government territory with 69 out of 125 seats. However, if the election were held tomorrow, the PQ wouldn’t exactly have a bad night either with an increase in seat count to 36. The CAQ would be virtually cut in half at 13 seats, and the QS would continue their ascent with 7 seats.

Advertisements
Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, December 14, 2015

Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, December 20, 2015

It seems that the short honeymoon for Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal government after Justin Trudeau’s victory is now over.

Last time a polling firm was in Ontario, my model projected a landslide win both popular vote (44% Liberal, 31% PC, 20% NDP, 4% Green) and seat count for the Liberals akin to 2003 and 2007 totals: 70 Liberals, 24 Progressive Conservatives, and 13 New Democrats.

Now, because of the emails scandal, it appears that shine has worn off. A new Forum Poll shows that the Progressive Conservatives are back in first place with 34%, the Liberals are back in second with 31%, the NDP is in an increased third with 26%, and the Greens are in an increased fourth with 7%. Forum’s seat projection predicts 44 Progressive Conservatives, 35 Liberals, and 28 New Democrats.

Here is the seat projection for this poll:
Eastern Ontario: 39% Liberal (8 seats), 38% Progressive Conservative (5 seats), 15% New Democratic (1 seat), 6% Green (0 seats)
Toronto*: 34% Liberal (10 seats), 34% Progressive Conservative (7 seats), 26% New Democratic (5 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
905: 34% Progressive Conservative (17 seats), 29% Liberal (11 seats), 28% New Democratic (9 seats), 7% Green (1 seat)
Southwest Ontario: 33% Progressive Conservative (11 seats), 33% New Democratic (7 seats), 22% Liberal (3 seats), 11% Green (1 seat)
Northern Ontario: 33% Liberal (4 seats), 33% Progressive Conservative (4 seats), 26% New Democratic (3 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Total: 34% Progressive Conservative (44 seats), 31% Liberal (36 seats), 26% New Democratic (25 seats), 7% Green (2 seats)

*The 416 and GTA numbers in the Forum poll were combined, since they were available to me.

My projection had similar results to Forum’s. Just like Forum, mine predicted 44 seats for the Conservatives. It predicted a slightly larger seat share for the Liberals with 36. However, the NDP does not take up the remaining seats in my model – for the first time, it has predicted the Greens would pick up 2 seats. However, the next election is not until 2018, so maybe the entire political map will be turned upside down by then.

Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, December 20, 2015

Seat Projection: Probe Manitoba Poll, December 19, 2015

Let me start off this post by saying that I hope everybody had a wonderful Festivus, Christmas and Boxing Day. I have been gifted with a new Probe Research poll coming out of Manitoba showing an interesting trend. The NDP, which has been in government since 1999, is almost certain to see its tenure in government end in 2016.

Last time, Probe showed the Progressive Conservatives in first by a landslide with 45%. Statistically tied in second place were the NDP and Liberals with 25% and 24% each, respectively. The Greens had 5%. This resulted in a seat projection of 32 Progressive Conservatives, 16 NDP, and 9 Liberals, with the Greens shut out.

Now, Probe shows the Progressive Conservatives have dipped slightly to 43%. The Liberals have catapulted into a clear second place with 29% (a little over 3.5 times their support in 2011). The governing NDP has taken a nose-dive to 22%. The Greens are now at 6%.

Here is the seat projection for this poll:
Winnipeg: 35% Progressive Conservative (16 seats), 29% New Democratic (11 seats), 29% Liberal (9 seats), 7% Green (1 seat)
Not Winnipeg: 53% Progressive Conservative (17 seats), 29% Liberal (3 seats), 13% New Democratic (0 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 43% Progressive Conservative (33 seats), 29% Liberal (12 seats), 22% New Democratic (11 seats), 6% Green (1 seat)

The Progressive Conservatives may have dropped slightly, but due to the quirks of the First-Past-the-Post Sytem, they increase to 33 seats. The Liberals are now projected to be the new Opposition with 12 seats. The NDP is projected to be in a close third in the seat count with 11. The Greens are also projected to pick up their first seat.

However, we are still a few months out from the election, and much can happen in this time.

Seat Projection: Probe Manitoba Poll, December 19, 2015

Seat Projections: Federal Election Polls, December 9-10, 2015

In the last week, three different polls were released about the next Canadian federal election. One was released by Forum, and the other by EKOS. Both project pretty hefty leads for the Liberals post-throne speech.

Forum has the Liberals leading with 46%, 14 points ahead of the Conservatives, who are at 32%. The NDP is at 13%, and the Bloc Quebecois and Greens are bringing up the rear with 4% each. They project 224 Liberal seats, 99 Conservative seats, 14 NDP seats, and 1 Green seat with those numbers.

EKOS has the Liberals also leading with 46%, but a whopping 19 points ahead of the Conservatives at 27%. The NDP is at 15%, the Greens are at 7%, and the Bloc Quebecois is at 3%.

Here is the seat projection for the Forum Poll*:
British Columbia: 43% Liberal (30 seats), 30% Conservative (8 seats), 18% New Democratic (4 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 71% Conservative (33 seats), 21% Liberal (1 seat), 5% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 46% Conservative (19 seats), 37% Liberal (8 seats), 13% New Democratic (1 seat), 2% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 49% Liberal (88 seats), 32% Conservative (26 seats), 13% New Democratic (5 seats), 5% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 50% Liberal (67 seats), 17% Conservative (4 seats), 16% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 13% New Democratic (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 56% Liberal (28 seats), 22% Conservative (2 seats), 17% New Democratic (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 46% Liberal (225 seats), 32% Conservative (92 seats), 13% New Democratic (15 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 4% Green (2 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the EKOS Poll*:
British Columbia: 41.8% Liberal (28 seats), 23% Conservative (6 seats), 21.6% New Democratic (5 seats), 12.5% Green (3 seats)
Alberta: 55.1% Conservative (29 seats), 31.2% Liberal (5 seats), 11.2% New Democratic (0 seats), 2.5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 45% Conservative (11 seats), 27.4% Liberal (3 seats), 14.3% New Democratic (0 seats), 13.4% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 52.6% Liberal (12 seats), 23.9% Conservative (2 seats), 13.9% New Democratic (0 seats), 7.9% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 50% Liberal (96 seats), 28.2% Conservative (17 seats), 14.1% New Democratic (6 seats), 6% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 43.5% Liberal (57 seats), 19.3% New Democratic (8 seats), 15.9% Conservative (6 seats), 15.1% Bloc Quebecois (6 seats), 5% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 73% Liberal (31 seats), 15.7% Conservative (1 seat), 7.9% Green (0 seats), 2.9% New Democratic (0 seats)
Total: 46.3% Liberal (235 seats), 27.2% Conservative (72 seats), 15.3% New Democratic (19 seats), 6.7% Green (6 seats), 3.4% Bloc Quebecois (6 seats)

*Since Atlantic Canada was not polled, I will leave those three seats with the same party who won it in 2015 for the sake of simplicity.

With both these seat projections, the Liberals have a comfortable supermajority. The Conservatives would be at either a slightly reduced or significantly reduced Oppositio ndepending on the polls. The NDP would also be cut by more than half. The Greens would either be shut out or rebound to 6 seats. The Bloc would remain in the House of Commons but with a reduced caucus.

Seat Projections: Federal Election Polls, December 9-10, 2015

Seat Projection: ThinkHQ Alberta Poll, December 10, 2015

, The Alberta political horserace is becoming competitive on a three-way level. I do not remember this type of competition ever being seen in Alberta – usually it’s rare to see two parties in the running. However, the latest ThinkHQ poll shows this three-way race in action: Wildrose is at 33%, the NDP is at 29%, the Progressive Conservatives are competitive at 25%, the Liberals have 8%, and the Alberta Party has 3%.

Here is the seat projection using my model:
Calgary: 30% New Democratic (12 seats), 29% Wildrose (8 seats), 25% Progressive Conservative (5 seats), 10% Liberal (1 seat), 5% Alberta (0 seats)
Edmonton: 43% New Democratic (15 seats), 20% Wildrose (2 seats), 17% Progressive Conservative (2 seats), 15% Liberal (2 seats), 1% Alberta (0 seats)
Small Urban: 37% Wildrose (6 seats), 30% Progressive Conservative (2 seats), 22% New Democratic (2 seats), 6% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Alberta (0 seats)
Rural: 51% Wildrose (24 seats), 23% New Democratic (3 seats), 22% Progressive Conservative (3 seats), 2% Alberta (0 seats), 1% Liberal (0 seats)
Total: 33% Wildrose (40 seats), 29% New Democratic (32 seats), 25% Progressive Conservative (12 seats), 8% Liberal (3 seats), 3% Alberta (0 seats)

With these numbers, Wildrose would be forming Alberta’s first ever minority government with 40 seats out of 87. the NDP would be reduced to the Official Opposition with 32 seats. Despite slightly losing ground compared to the election, the PC’s have rebounded from other recent polls and would increase their seat count to 12. The Liberals would increase their caucus to 3 seats. The Alberta Party would be shut out of the legislature.

Seat Projection: ThinkHQ Alberta Poll, December 10, 2015

Seat Projections: Corporate Research Atlantic Canada Polls, December 9-10, 2015

Corporate Research Associates has come out with its quarterly poll of provincial politics in Atlantic Canada (with the exception of Newfoundland and Labrador, which had a general election very close to the polling date). It seems the Liberals, who govern in each of these provinces, have surged to new heights after the federal election. I will do the seat counts for these polls

I will put one caveat on these projections, though: there was no regional data provided, so the projection will not be as accurate without it.

Here is the seat projection for New Brunswick:
55% Liberal (44 seats)
25% Progressive Conservative (4 seats)
12% New Democratic (1 seat)
7% Green Party (0 seats)
1% People’s Alliance (0 seats)

Here is the seat projection for Nova Scotia:
64% Liberal (47 seats)
17% Progressive Conservative (2 seats)
17% New Democratic (2 seats)
2% Green (0 seats)

Here is the seat projection for Prince Edward Island:
61% Liberal (26 seats)
18% Progressive Conservative (1 seat)
11% Green (0 seats)
9% New Democratic (0 seats)

With each of these polls, the Liberals would win with landslides in both popular vote and seat count.

In New Brunswick, the Liberals would have 44 seats, up from the 27 they won in 2014. The Progressive Conservatives would be reduced dramatically from 21 seats to a rump caucus of 4. The New Democrats under Dominic Cardy would get their first seat. The Greens would be shut out of the legislature.

In Nova Scotia, the Liberals would surge from 33 seats to 47. The Progressive Conservatives would decrease from 10 seats to 2, the NDP from 7 seats to 2, and both would be tied for Official Opposition.

In Prince Edward Island, the Liberals would increase their share from 18 seats to 26 seats. The Progressive Conservatives would be reduced from 8 to 1, the only opposition seat in the legislature. The Greens would end up shut out of the legislature.

Seat Projections: Corporate Research Atlantic Canada Polls, December 9-10, 2015

Seat Projection: Insightrix Saskatchewan Poll, November 10-12, 2015

This past week, a poll on the state of party support in Saskatchewan has been released. This is quite unusual in that polling companies have had a tendency to pass over Saskatchewan in recent years, and it’s the first one since May.

Since May, the Saskatchewan Party has dropped from 58% to 54% and the NDP dropped from 31% to 25%. This was mostly picked up by the Liberals, who have increased from 6% to 14%, incredible considering they got less than 0.5% of the vote in 2011. The Greens are at 6%.

I attempted to make contact with Insightrix, but they did not release to me any regional data, so I can only go on province-wide data with this seat projection:

51 Saskatchewan Party
8 New Democratic
2 Liberal
0 Green

This seat projection reflects the fact that the Saskatchewan legislature has increased from 58 to 61 seats. The Saskatchewan Party would gain 2 seats from 2011, the NDP would lose one seat from 2011, and the Liberals would gain 2. The Greens would remain shut out of the legislature.

If current trends hold, the Saskatchewan Party may be positioning itself to remain a political dynasty for years to come. Alternatively, this may be the last election in which it is likely to win for a few years. Only time will tell.

Seat Projection: Insightrix Saskatchewan Poll, November 10-12, 2015