Seat Projections: EKOS & Forum polls, March 29-April 5, 2016

In the last week, two polls have been released detailing the state of the parties federally.

The March 29 EKOS poll has the Liberals in the lead with 42.1%, the Conservatives in second with 31.7%, the NDP in a distant third with 11.7%, the Greens with 6.4%, and the Bloc Quebecois with 4.8%.

The April 5 Forum Research poll has the Liberals even higher at 51%, with the Conservatives at 28%, the NDP at 12%, the Bloc Quebecois at 6%, and the Greens at 3%.

Here is the seat projection for the EKOS poll*:
British Columbia: 54.9% Liberal (37 seats), 17.1% Conservative (2 seats), 14.7% Green (2 seats), 9.9% New Democratic (1 seat)
Alberta: 57.5% Conservative (31 seats), 24.9% Liberal (3 seats), 8.9% New Democratic (0 seats), 3.9% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 56.2% Conservative (12 seats), 30.1% Liberal (2 seats), 9.1% New Democratic (0 seats), 1.3% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 45% Conservative (10 seats), 27.6% Liberal (3 seats), 16% Green (1 seat), 11.4% New Democratic (0 seats)
Ontario: 41.5% Liberal (67 seats), 40% Conservative (48 seats), 10.8% New Democratic (4 seats), 5.4% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 42.4% Liberal (58 seats), 19.9% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats), 15.8% Conservative (6 seats), 15.5% New Democratic (6 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 58.6% Liberal (30 seats), 14.3% Conservative (1 seat), 12.7% New Democratic (1 seat), 10.5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 42.1% Liberal (203 seats), 31.7% Conservative (110 seats), 11.7% New Democratic (12 seats), 6.4% Green (5 seats), 4.8% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the Forum poll*:
British Columbia: 49% Liberal (31 seats), 31% Conservative (9 seats), 13% New Democratic (2 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 58% Conservative (28 seats), 33% Liberal (6 seats), 7% New Democratic (0 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 42% Conservative (16 seats), 40% Liberal (11 seats), 11% New Democratic (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 56% Liberal (100 seats), 29% Conservative (18 seats), 11% New Democratic (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 48% Liberal (61 seats), 23% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 14% Conservative (4 seats), 14% New Democratic (4 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 71% Liberal (32 seats), 12% Conservative (0 seats), 11% New Democratic (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 51% Liberal (244 seats), 28% Conservative (75 seats), 12% New Democratic (10 seats), 6% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I left their seats with the party that won them in 2015, the Liberals.

With these numbers, it’s very clear that whether the EKOS or Forum polls are right, the Liberals would still make gains relative to their position in the 2015 election. The Conservatives stagnate for the most part, but retain their core 28-31%. The NDP would see its caucus further decimated after it was decimated in 2015, a bad sign for the party’s future. The Bloc Quebecois appears to be staying afloat. The Greens could either make gains or total losses.

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Seat Projections: EKOS & Forum polls, March 29-April 5, 2016

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