Seat Projection: EKOS Poll, September 22, 2015

EKOS is coming out of left field with their newest poll. For the longest time, polls have predicted a tight three-way race between the Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP, with no one able to break out of the deadlock. However, this poll has the Conservatives with a large lead at 35.4%, with the Liberals and NDP battling for second at 26.3% and 24.5%, respectively. The Greens have a healthy 7.7%, and the Bloc Quebecois has 4.2%.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 35% Conservative (23 seats), 29% New Democratic (10 seats), 23% Liberal (6 seats), 13% Green (3 seats)
Alberta: 57% Conservative (30 seats), 24% Liberal (3 seats), 13% New Democratic (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 41% Conservative (9 seats), 37% New Democratic (5 seats), 13% Liberal (0 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 41% Conservative (10 seats), 30% Liberal (3 seats), 15% New Democratic (1 seat), 11% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 39% Conservative (70 seats), 30% Liberal (29 seats), 20% New Democratic (16 seats), 10% Green (6 seats)
Quebec: 33% New Democratic (44 seats), 24% Conservative (15 seats), 19% Liberal (10 seats), 18% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 39% Liberal (19 seats), 33% New Democratic (8 seats), 22% Conservative (5 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 35.4% Conservative (164 seats), 26.5% Liberal (70 seats), 24.5% New Democratic (86 seats), 7.7% Green (9 seats), 4.2% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

If these numbers are indicative of what is really going on in the race, I would be very surprised. No poll before or since in the campaign has predicted this wide of a Conservative lead. This result is likely just a fluke.

However, it does say something major – even if the Conservatives have the best night they can possibly envision, they will not serve another full term in government. None of the other seat-winning parties will even remotely entertain entering into a coalition with the Conservatives. If a coalition happens, it will likely be the other parties against the Conservatives, but that is unlikely as well due to various structural issues preventing coalitions from being a good idea for the minor parties. The best the Conservatives would have to hope for is another minority government.

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Seat Projection: EKOS Poll, September 22, 2015

Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, September 21-25, 2015

I have decided that analysis of the Nanos polls would be more meaningful if I put them into 5 day blocks so that we could see the change in the data. Last time around, there was a consistent Conservative plurality in seats and a slight increase in Bloc Quebecois support.

Here is my seat projection for the September 21 poll*:
British Columbia: 33.4% New Democratic (17 seats), 30.6% Liberal (13 seats), 25.8% Conservative (10 seats), 10.3% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 48.8% Conservative (49 seats), 23.9% Liberal (7 seats), 20.5% New Democratic (6 seats), 4.3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 37.8% Conservative (68 seats), 31.3% Liberal (30 seats), 26% New Democratic (21 seats), 4.9% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 39.4% New Democratic (52 seats), 28% Liberal (15 seats), 15.3% Conservative (6 seats), 13.9% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats), 2.1% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 45.1% Liberal (21 seats), 27.8% New Democratic (6 seats), 23.2% Conservative (5 seats), 2.8% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31.3% Conservative (140 seats), 30.3% Liberal (86 seats), 29.4% New Democratic (103 seats), 4.6% Green (4 seats), 3.4% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats)

Here is my seat projection for the September 22 poll*:
British Columbia: 34.8% New Democratic (19 seats), 30.1% Liberal (13 seats), 23.7% Conservative (8 seats), 11.4% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 50% Conservative (47 seats), 24.5% Liberal (8 seats), 21.7% New Democratic (7 seats), 2.1% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 37.3% Conservative (58 seats), 34.2% Liberal (41 seats), 24.3% New Democratic (20 seats), 4.2% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 38.9% New Democratic (52 seats), 28.8% Liberal (15 seats), 17.3% Conservative (7 seats), 10.6% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 2.2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 47% Liberal (23 seats), 25.7% New Democratic (4 seats), 24.1% Conservative (5 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31.6% Liberal (100 seats), 31.5% Conservative (127 seats), 29.1% New Democratic (103 seats), 4.2% Green (4 seats), 2.6% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats)

Here is my seat projection for the September 23 poll*:
British Columbia: 34.8% New Democratic (20 seats), 27% Conservative (11 seats), 26.3% Liberal (9 seats), 11.9% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 44.6% Conservative (44 seats), 27.3% New Democratic (11 seats), 23.7% Liberal (7 seats), 2.1% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 37.2% Conservative (57 seats), 37.1% Liberal (45 seats), 22.5% New Democratic (18 seats), 3.2% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 41.7% New Democratic (55 seats), 28.4% Liberal (15 seats), 16.6% Conservative (6 seats), 9.4% Bloc Quebecois (2 seats), 1.1% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 46.1% Liberal (21 seats), 30.1% New Democratic (6 seats), 21.6% Conservative (5 seats), 2.2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31.5% Liberal (97 seats), 30.8% New Democratic (111 seats), 30.5% Conservative (125 seats), 3.7% Green (3 seats), 2.3% Bloc Quebecois (2 seats)

Here is my seat projection for the September 24 poll*:
British Columbia: 34.7% New Democratic (15 seats), 30.2% Conservative (16 seats), 23.9% Liberal (8 seats), 11.2% Green (3 seats)
Prairies: 41% Conservative (40 seats), 27.3% Liberal (11 seats), 25.6% New Democratic (11 seats), 4.4% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 37.1% Liberal (45 seats), 34.3% Conservative (51 seats), 25.1% New Democratic (24 seats), 3.5% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 41.1% New Democratic (54 seats), 29.6% Liberal (15 seats), 15.8% Conservative (6 seats), 10% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 0.8% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 48.2% Liberal (22 seats), 30.5% New Democratic (7 seats), 17.7% Conservative (3 seats), 3.6% Green (0 seats)
Total: 32.3% Liberal (101 seats), 31.1% New Democratic (112 seats), 28.9% Conservative (118 seats), 4.2% Green (4 seats), 2.5% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

Here is my seat projection for the September 25 poll*:
British Columbia: 33.5% Conservative (19 seats), 29.5% New Democratic (12 seats), 27% Liberal (9 seats), 10.1% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 40.9% Conservative (39 seats), 26.2% Liberal (11 seats), 25.6% New Democratic (11 seats), 4.9% Green (1 seat)
Ontario: 36.3% Liberal (44 seats), 34.6% Conservative (51 seats), 25.7% New Democratic (25 seats), 3.4% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 39.8% New Democratic (52 seats), 27.7% Liberal (14 seats), 17.2% Conservative (7 seats), 12.6% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats), 1.9% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 47.7% Liberal (23 seats), 32.2% New Democratic (7 seats), 15.2% Conservative (2 seats), 4.9% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31.8% Liberal (101 seats), 30.3% New Democratic (108 seats), 29.6% Conservative (120 seats), 4.5% Green (4 seats), 3.1% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

With this five day block, some trends are immediately becoming clear – even when the Liberals lead, they do not have a very good vote efficiency. Their major stumbling block is Quebec, where the NDP will likely never lose its lead. However, they may gain more of an advantage if they are seen as the credible alternative elsewhere. The NDP has gained its efficiency in the vote, however it is not enough to beat the Conservatives, who still get a plurality in seat count despite coming in third in certain cases due to efficient vote distribution.

The Bloc Quebecois has dipped back down to lower levels, but it still has a good chance of surviving in the election assuming that the other parties get into a deadlock. The Greens will likely pick up a handful of seats in British Columbia and Ontario if their numbers hold.

Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, September 21-25, 2015

Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid Poll, September 20, 2015

Last time Ipsos Reid was in the field, they predicted a very tight three way race – the NDP with 32%, the Liberals with 31%, and the Conservatives with 29%, with the Bloc Quebecois and Greens claiming 4% each. This translated seat-wise into 113 Liberals, 110 NDP, 105 Conservatives, 7 Bloc, and 3 Greens.

The Liberals in the latest Ipsos Reid poll are now first place in the popular vote with 33%. The NDP has taken a slight dip to 30%, and the Conservatives remain in third, albeit a slightly more distant one, at 27%. The Bloc Quebecois has gained one point and is now at 5%, and the Greens remain at 4%.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 36% New Democratic (21 seats), 28% Conservative (12 seats), 24% Liberal (7 seats), 10% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 39% Conservative (19 seats), 31% New Democratic (8 seats), 29% Liberal (7 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 44% Conservative (19 seats), 34% New Democratic (6 seats), 21% Liberal (3 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 41% Liberal (62 seats), 32% Conservative (39 seats), 24% New Democratic (19 seats), 3% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 37% New Democratic (49 seats), 24% Liberal (12 seats), 23% Bloc Quebecois (12 seats), 13% Conservative (5 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 49% Liberal (23 seats), 30% New Democratic (6 seats), 18% Conservative (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 33% Liberal (114 seats), 30% New Democratic (110 seats), 27% Conservative (99 seats), 5% Bloc Quebecois (12 seats), 4% Green (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

With these numbers, unlike Nanos and Forum, the three way race continues – the Liberals and NDP largely maintain, but the Conservatives have dropped to 99 in the projection. The Bloc Quebecois has a notable gain in that it’s projected to return to Official Party Status, a projection that has not previously happened in this campaign.

Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid Poll, September 20, 2015

Seat Projection: Forum Poll, September 18, 2015

In Forum’s last poll, the Conservatives had their first plurality in the campaign at 32%. The NDP was shown to be in second with 30% and the Liberals in third with 28%. The Greens and Bloc Quebecois had 6% and 4%, respectively. My model translated this into 146 seats for the Conservatives, 106 for the NDP, 78 for the Liberals, 5 for the Bloc Quebecois, and 3 for the Greens.

In this poll, the Conservatives remain in first with 33%. However, the Liberals and NDP are tied for second place at 29%. The Greens have declined 2 points to 4%, and the Bloc remains at 4%.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 36% Conservative (20 seats), 34% Liberal (14 seats), 21% New Democratic (6 seats), 8% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 57% Conservative (30 seats), 24% New Democratic (3 seats), 15% Liberal (1 seat), 4% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 37% Conservative (15 seats), 33% Liberal (9 seats), 23% New Democratic (4 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 35% Conservative (58 seats), 34% Liberal (41 seats), 25% New Democratic (20 seats), 5% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 38% New Democratic (50 seats), 24% Conservative (12 seats), 22% Liberal (11 seats), 14% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats), 0% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 44% Liberal, 38% New Democratic (10 seats), 14% Conservative (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 33% Conservative (139 seats), 29% Liberal (96 seats), 29% New Democratic (94 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats), 4% Green (4 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, their seats will remain with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

The Conservatives have a clear plurality here with 139 seats, and the Liberals and NDP are at a virtual tie for second in seat count. However, this may not be a sign that the Conservatives are regaining in popularity. Just like how the Nanos polls show, there is a significant amount of upheaval going on at the regional level between voters who are not supporting the Conservatives. This is likely a restructuring period in which voters will slowly get behind either the Liberals or NDP as a means to win against the Conservatives, who currently have a formidable seat distribution advantage.

Seat Projection: Forum Poll, September 18, 2015

Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, September 18-20, 2015

The fluctuation that has dominated the last 2 weeks of Nanos polling has stabilized. Now it’s a narrow fight between the Conservatives and Liberals with the NDP in a remarkably close third.

Here is the seat projection for the September 18 poll*:
British Columbia: 31.4% Conservative (17 seats), 27.3% Liberal (11 seats), 26.7% New Democratic (11 seats), 12.4% Green (3 seats)
Prairies: 54% Conservative (54 seats), 19.8% New Democratic (4 seats), 19.7% Liberal (4 seats), 5.3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 41.4% Liberal (67 seats), 32.9% Conservative (40 seats), 19.6% New Democratic (12 seats), 5.7% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 47.7% New Democratic (63 seats), 20.8% Liberal (8 seats), 14.4% Conservative (4 seats), 12% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 4.2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic: 50.7% Liberal (23 seats), 31.7% New Democratic (7 seats), 14.7% Conservative (2 seats), 2.9% Green (0 seats)
Total: 30.8% Liberal (113 seats), 30.4% Conservative (119 seats), 28.9% New Democratic (98 seats), 6% Green (5 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the September 19 poll*:
British Columbia: 35.3% Conservative (21 seats), 30.8% New Democratic (13 seats), 23.1% Liberal (6 seats), 9.6% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 50.5% Conservative (51 seats), 23.4% Liberal (7 seats), 19.3% New Democratic (4 seats), 5.5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 37.3% Liberal (45 seats), 36% Conservative (60 seats), 21.1% New Democratic (17 seats), 5% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 45.7% New Democratic (62 seats), 22.5% Liberal (9 seats), 15% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 12% Conservative (3 seats), 3.7% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic: 53.3% Liberal (24 seats), 29% New Democratic (5 seats), 15.9% Conservative (3 seats), 1.9% Green (0 seats)
Total: 30.8% Conservative (140 seats), 30.3% Liberal (91 seats), 29.1% New Democratic (99 seats), 5.1% Green (4 seats), 3.7% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the September 20 poll*:
British Columbia: 31.9% New Democratic (13 seats). 31.8% Conservative (19 seats), 24.8% Liberal (8 seats), 9.9% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 49.1% Conservative (48 seats), 22.7% Liberal (7 seats), 19.6% New Democratic (6 seats), 6.5% Green (1 seat)
Ontario: 35.5% Conservative (57 seats), 34.5% Liberal (42 seats), 24.4% New Democratic (20 seats), 5.4% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 41.2% New Democratic (54 seats), 24.5% Liberal (13 seats), 15.5% Bloc Quebecois (6 seats), 14.1% Conservative (5 seats), 3.4% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic: 46.2% Liberal (21 seats), 28.5% New Democratic (6 seats), 21.8% Conservative (5 seats), 2.3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31% Conservative (136 seats), 29.4% Liberal (91 seats), 29.1% New Democratic (100 seats), 5.5% Green (5 seats), 3.8% Bloc Quebecois (6 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

From these polls, one might extrapolate a trend towards a stable Conservative plurality in seat count with the NDP and Liberals competing for second. However, the regional data shows more bubbling under the surface.

In British Columbia, the province in which the NDP once predominated is now in play for all three parties. In the Prairies, the NDP and Liberals are battling it out for second where the NDP once had decisive status as the alternative to the Conservatives. In Ontario, the former three-way race has now become a competition between Liberals and Conservatives. In Quebec, NDP dominance has held, with the Bloc Quebecois rising slightly from the dead, and in Atlantic Canada, Liberal dominance has held.

My personal prediction is that the Conservative plurality will not necessarily hold. However, it is unclear whether the Liberals or NDP will triumph. For the pool of voters the Liberals and NDP take from, establishing who is the clear alternative to Harper is crucial. If one party emerges (and so far neither have) as the alternative, much of the soft support of one party will go to the other in a tactical move. It remains to be seen which party this is, or if such a decision can be made in time.

Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, September 18-20, 2015

Seat Projection: Nanos Poll, September 17, 2015

The latest Nanos poll continues the fluctuation between the NDP, Liberals, and Conservatives for first place. The race is so close, that only 1.4 points separate the first and third place finisher.

Yesterday, the Liberals led with 30.9%, the NDP was in second with 30.4%, the Conservatives were in third with 30.1%, the Greens had 5.8%, and the Bloc Quebecois was at 2.5%. This translated seat-wise into 116 for the Conservatives, 113 for the Liberals, 101 for the NDP, 5 for the Greens, and 3 for the Bloc Quebecois.

Today, the NDP leads with 31.3%, the Liberals are in a close second with 31%, the Conservatives are in third with 29.1%, the Greens remain at 5.8%, and the Bloc Quebecois dips slightly to 2.3%, their worst poll in history.

Here is the seat projection for today’s numbers using my model*:
British Columbia: 30.8% New Democratic (13 seats), 29.3% Conservative (14 seats), 28.6% Liberal (12 seats), 10.6% Green (3 seats)
Prairies: 50.2% Conservative (50 seats), 25.6% New Democratic (8 seats), 19% Liberal (4 seats), 4.8% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 39.6% Liberal (62 seats), 32.3% Conservative (39 seats), 21.6% New Democratic (17 seats), 6.3% Green (3 seats)
Quebec: 47.8% New Democratic (63 seats), 23.5% Liberal (9 seats), 14.7% Conservative (4 seats), 9.2% Bloc Quebecois (2 seats), 3.7% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 51.3% Liberal (23 seats), 32% New Democratic (7 seats), 12.1% Conservative (2 seats), 4.6% Green (0 seats)
Total: 31.3% New Democratic (109 seats), 31% Liberal (110 seats), 29.1% Conservative (111 seats), 5.8% Green (6 seats), 2.3% Bloc Quebecois (2 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

With this projection, the race is so close that no party even approaches a third of the seats. The Conservatives are in first with 111, the Liberals are in second with 110, and the NDP is in third with 109. The Greens and Bloc have 6 and 2 seats, respectively.

To put in perspective how close this balance is, one by-election could change the order of the parties in the legislature. One by-election where a Conservative seat becomes Liberal could mean the Liberals become the largest party. One by-election where a Liberal seat becomes NDP means that the NDP is now the second-largest party. One by-election where a Conservative seat becomes NDP means that the three parties are tied. One by-election where an NDP seat becomes Liberal ties the Liberals and Conservatives. If these numbers hold, then we will undoubtedly see an election again real soon.

Seat Projection: Nanos Poll, September 17, 2015

Seat Projection: Forum Poll, September 15, 2015

A cataclysm has happened in the Forum poll – since June, it has pegged the NDP to have the lead spot, and in certain polls, the governing Conservatives have even been in a distant third place. Now, in the latest poll, the Conservatives are leading with 32%, the NDP is in second with 30%, and the NDP has 28%.

In the last poll, the NDP was projected to have 142 seats, the Conservatives 100, the Liberals 91, the Bloc Quebecois 3, and the Greens 2.

Here is the latest seat projection using my algorithm*:
British Columbia: 38% New Democratic (23 seats), 29% Conservative (12 seats), 24% Liberal (7 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 52% Conservative (30 seats), 22% New Democratic (2 seats), 20% Liberal (2 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 42% Conservative (18 seats), 28% New Democratic (5 seats), 27% Liberal (5 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 37% Conservative (69 seats), 31% Liberal (30 seats), 24% New Democratic (19 seats), 7% Green (3 seats)
Quebec: 38% New Democratic (50 seats), 25% Liberal (13 seats), 20% Conservative (10 seats), 13% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 45% Liberal (21 seats), 26% New Democratic (6 seats), 24% Conservative (5 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Total: 32% Conservative (146 seats), 30% New Democratic (106 seats), 28% Liberal (78 seats), 6% Green (3 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I am going to keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

The pendulum has swung again in the Conservatives’ favor. The NDP has been relegated to roughly the same position as its Official Opposition days. However, there is still room for change, other polls have predicted a myriad of results in this phase of the election cycle.

Seat Projection: Forum Poll, September 15, 2015