Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid Poll, June 23, 2015

LISPOP has put out a seat projection for the latest Ipsos Reid poll. The numbers are similar to the Forum poll that came out the same day (which my projection shows 146 NDP, 99 Conservative, 83 Liberal, and 10 Bloc Quebecois). In the Ipsos Reid poll, the NDP is in the lead with 35%, the Liberals in second place with 29%, the incumbent Conservatives in a close third with 28%, the Bloc Quebecois with 6%, and the Greens with 2%. From this, LISPOP has projected 130 New Democrats, 119 Conservatives, 86 Liberals, 2 Blocquistes, and 1 Green in the House of Commons. My model will show differently. Here is the seat projection using my model*: British Columbia: 40% New Democratic (25 seats), 30% Conservative (10 seats), 24% Liberal (7 seats), 6% Green (0 seats) Alberta: 43% Conservative (21 seats), 37% New Democratic (10 seats), 18% Liberal (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats) Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 37% New Democratic (12 seats), 36% Liberal (10 seats), 25% Conservative (6 seats), 2% Green (0 seats) Ontario: 34% Liberal (41 seats), 33% Conservative (42 seats), 31% New Democratic (38 seats), 2% Green (0 seats) Quebec: 41% New Democratic (50 seats), 23% Liberal (12 seats), 22% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 13% Conservative (5 seats), 0% Green (0 seats) Atlantic Canada: 51% Liberal (22 seats), 25% Conservative (6 seats), 22% New Democratic (4 seats), 3% Green (0 seats) Total: 35% New Democratic (140 seats), 29% Liberal (95 seats), 28% Conservative (92 seats), 6% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 2% Green (0 seats) *Northern Canada was not polled, so I left their three seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity. With those numbers, the NDP wins 140 seats, forming a minority government and an increase of 37 from 2011. The Liberals form the Official Opposition for the first time since 2011 with 95 seats, nearly tripling their 2011 result. The governing Conservatives fall to third place with 92 seats, the first time this has been projected on this blog. The Bloc Quebecois increases their seat count from 4 to 11, one shy of Official Party Status. The Greens are shut out of the legislature. These are comparable to the Forum Poll’s numbers (146 NDP, 99 Con, 83 Lib, 10 BQ) with the exception of one huge thing: who forms the Official Opposition, and who becomes the kingmaker. This can change the nature of the House of Commons rather drastically.

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Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid Poll, June 23, 2015

Seat Projection: Forum Poll, June 23, 2015

It turns out the latest EKOS poll appears to be an anomaly in what appears to be a continuing upward trend to the NDP. In the latest Forum poll, the NDP is in a strong lead with 36%, and the Conservatives and Liberals tied at 28%. The Bloc Quebecois is back to largely normal at 5%, and the Greens have hit an unusual low at 2%. The NDP has never experienced this large of a lead in the history of polling. This is good news for the NDP, as their competitors are being hit in the regions where it hurts.

Here is the seat projection with my model using the latest Forum Poll*:
British Columbia: 54% New Democratic (35 seats), 21% Conservative (4 seats), 20% Liberal (3 seats), 4% Green (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats)
Alberta: 41% Conservative (22 seats), 28% New Democratic (6 seats), 27% Liberal (6 seats), 3% Green (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 40% New Democratic (13 seats), 34% Conservative (10 seats), 25% Liberal (5 seats), 1% Other (0 seats), 0% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 33% New Democratic (40 seats), 32% Conservative (42 seats), 32% Liberal (39 seats), 2% Green (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats)
Quebec: 36% New Democratic (46 seats), 25% Liberal (13 seats), 20% Bloc Quebecois (10 seats), 17% Conservative (9 seats), 2% Green (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 41% Liberal (17 seats), 32% Conservative (10 seats), 24% New Democratic (5 seats), 2% Green (0 seats), 0% Other (0 seats)
Total: 36% New Democratic (146 seats), 28% Conservative (99 seats), 28% Liberal (83 seats), 5% Bloc Quebecois (10 seats), 2% Green (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, their three seats will have the same MP’s in the total for the sake of simplicity.

These results put the NDP 23 seats short of a majority government, but well ahead of any of their opposition with 146 seats, a gain of 43 from their 2011 result. The Conservatives will form the Official Opposition for the first time since 2004 with 99 seats, down 67 from their 2011 result and being out of government for the first time in almost a decade. The Liberals will remain in third with 83 seats, up 49 from their 2011 result. This may come as a disappointment to them considering the Trudeaumania of 2013 and 2014, but it still puts them in kingmaker status. The Bloc Quebecois will bring up the rear with 10 seats, up from 4 in 2011, just two shy of Official Party Status. The Greens would be shut out of Parliament. However, because their vote distribution tends to be less uniform than the other parties, just like when it has a high amount of seats projected, a projection of zero can be unlikely as well.

In relation to the last Forum poll, the NDP increases its caucus by 9 seats (137 to 146), remaining a minority government. The Conservatives increase from third in the popular vote to a tie with the Liberals in 2nd place, and increase their caucus by 3 seats (96 to 99). The Liberals decrease their caucus by 1 seat (84 to 83). The Bloc will decline by 6 seats (16 to 10), losing official party status, and the Greens will lose all 5 of their projected seats last week (5 to 0), being shut out of the legislature. These seats, at the national level, appear largely to be bleeding from the Bloc and Greens to the NDP.

At the regional level, it makes sense that gains and losses are far from uniform. The seat totals did not vary drastically compared to last week. The NDP is gaining in British Columbia, Saskatchewan/Manitoba and Quebec, stagnating in Ontario, and declining in Alberta and Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives are gaining in Alberta, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada and declining in British Columbia and Saskatchewan/Manitoba. The Liberals are gaining in Alberta and Atlantic Canada, stagnating in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and Ontario, and declining in British Columbia and Quebec. The Bloc Quebecois is declining in Quebec. The Greens are stagnating in Alberta, Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and Atlantic Canada, and declining in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec.

What implications do these results have if representative of public opinion? The NDP is doing well in the areas where it has had strength since the 2011 election (British Columbia and Quebec). Its stagnation in Ontario is still an overall gain from 2011, and may represent a ceiling of support. Saskatchewan and Manitoba represent a largely untapped ground and can gain the NDP some seats. Alberta appears to be somewhat troubling, as the NDP’s surge has come after Rachel Notley’s win in the province. Atlantic Canada’s results are a return to form in a region traditionally dominated by the Liberals. The Conservative gains in most regions are still declines compared to 2011, but it bodes well for them that they are retaining strength in Alberta and Ontario, both being necessary provinces for the Conservatives to sweep. It is also good for them that they are making gains in Quebec, possibly the only province where they have untapped ground. However, British Columbia and Saskatchewan/Manitoba have been previous Conservative strongholds, and declines there cannot bode well for them. The Liberals doing well in Atlantic Canada is helpful as it has been a traditional stronghold, and gains in Alberta represent untapped ground. However, stagnation and decline everywhere else means a very difficult road to the Prime Minister’s Office. However, in all regions, they will gain from 2011. The Bloc Quebecois does not appear to have benefitted in any meaningful way from Gilles Duceppe’s return, and the Greens would be shut out entirely.

Seat Projection: Forum Poll, June 23, 2015

Seat Projection: EKOS Poll, June 16, 2015

In a surprising turn of events, the polling firm that first showcased the NDP’s rise is now showing the NDP decreasing and the Liberals rebounding. This comes after a months-long trend of NDP gains and Liberal declines, and multiple polling firms confirming EKOS’s earlier findings. Whether this is margin of error or the beginning of another trend, only time will tell.

In the latest EKOS poll, the NDP still leads in the popular vote with 30.2%, the Conservatives are in second with 29.4%, the Liberals remain in third with 25%, the Greens hold steady with 7.1%, and the Bloc Quebecois rebound to 5.9%. The Bloc’s results prove that while Gilles Duceppe cannot return his party’s fortunes to their heyday, I was wrong in writing off the effect this honeymoon period might have on the major parties, especially the NDP, whose strategy centers around strong results in Quebec. There is no telling, with four months until the next election, whether Gilles Duceppe taking leadership of the Bloc again will have a lasting effect.

Here is the latest seat projection with my model using the latest EKOS poll*:
British Columbia: 37% New Democratic (25 seats), 23% Conservative (8 seats), 22% Liberal (6 seats), 14% Green (3 seats)
Alberta: 50% Conservative (28 seats), 29% New Democratic (5 seats), 13% Liberal (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 40% Conservative (11 seats), 30% New Democratic (3 seats), 14% Liberal (0 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 36% Liberal (5 seats), 32% Conservative (6 seats), 25% New Democratic (3 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 34% Conservative (54 seats), 30% New Democratic (36 seats), 27% Liberal (26 seats), 8% Green (5 seats)
Quebec: 28% New Democratic (28 seats), 25% Liberal (20 seats), 24% Bloc Quebecois (19 seats), 18% Conservative (9 seats), 4% Green (2 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 36% Liberal (18 seats), 31% New Democratic (8 seats), 21% Conservative (5 seats), 8% Green (1 seat)
Total: 30.2% New Democratic (109 seats), 29.4% Conservative (123 seats), 25% Liberal (76 seats), 7.1% Green (11 seats), 5.9% Bloc Quebecois (19 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, their three seats will have the same MP’s in the total for the sake of simplicity.

These results predict the Conservatives holding onto a minority government with 123 seats despite coming in second with the popular vote, down 43 seats from their 2011 result. The NDP will retain Official Opposition status with 109 seats, up 6 from their 2011 result, despite coming in first in the popular vote. The Liberals will remain in third place with 76 seats, up 42 from their 2011 result, which, while disappointing for the formerly Natural Governing Party, will likely give them a large amount of sway in a Parliament with no majority. The Bloc Quebecois will return to Official Party Status with 19 seats, up from 4 in 2011, a far cry from their heyday but a return to some level of prominence. The Greens will balloon to 11 seats, up from 1 in 2011, but I must disclose that the model is not necessarily accurate with the results of the Greens because their vote distribution tends to be more concentrated in certain areas rather than uniform, and the model does not take into account this concentration.

In terms of its relation to the latest EKOS poll, there is a definite return to the norm of the last year. The Conservatives again have a small plurality in seats, which is a result of their vote distribution and incumbency advantage and the NDP is again an Opposition party. The Liberals and Greens remain relatively steady, while the Bloc surges.

The regional trends are proving less uniform than the findings of the last couple of weeks. The NDP is gaining in British Columbia, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Atlantic Canada and declining in Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec. The Conservatives are gaining in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, stagnant in Quebec, and declining in British Columbia and Manitoba. The Liberals are gaining in Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec, stagnating in British Columbia, and declining in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Atlantic Canada. The Bloc Quebecois is gaining in Quebec. The Greens are gaining in British Columbia, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, stagnating in Alberta, Manitoba, and Ontario, and declining in Saskatchewan (though the Greens getting 20% support in Saskatchewan as of the second-most recent EKOS poll seems unlikely).

What do these regional trends spell out? Well, it’s a mixed bag. For the NDP, its gains being largely in places where it is not currently strong can signal expansion. However, this is a mere possibility, as the Conservatives have had a well-oiled machine there for over a decade. It is also good for them that they are making gains in British Columbia, a longtime stronghold, though they may be inefficient votes. Declines in Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec are quite troubling. Rachel Notley’s win in Alberta is largely heralded as the reason for the rise in federal NDP fortunes, so for declines there to occur does not produce a good outlook. Ontario is a bellwether province that frequently decides the winner of the election, so long-term NDP declines would be a disaster for their election strategy. As stated earlier, the NDP’s strategy also revolves around a strong Quebec. If the Bloc Quebecois continues to eat into the NDP, then the NDP might be kept from forming government.

The Conservatives also have mixed results ahead of them. The gains in Alberta are largely a return to their 2011 result, but that can be a blessing. Since they are a nine-year incumbent government, it is unlikely their seat count will increase anywhere, so holding steady is a win for them. Holding Saskatchewan and Ontario, currently Conservative strongholds, is crucial to their strategy. It is also good for them that they are making inroads in Quebec, possibly their only chance of expansion.

The Liberals possibly have the brightest outlook out of the three parties with a shot at the Prime Minister’s office. Their gains in Manitoba may prove irrelevant as they have had a minimal presence there for a long time, but for their gains to be centered around Ontario and Quebec, the two largest provinces, is crucial to their strategy. The 199 seats these provinces possess could be more than enough to form government if they play their cards right. Their stagnation in British Columbia as of this week is still a gain from the 2011 election. Their declines in Alberta and Saskatchewan are largely irrelevant, as they barely registered there and that will continue to be the case in the long-term. Their declines in Atlantic Canada might be more troubling, but are still a step up from 2011.

It is hard to tell whether the Bloc Quebecois will remain steady with Gilles Duceppe as a leader. On the one hand, Mario Beaulieu was certainly a drag on the Bloc Quebecois’ numbers for an entire year, but on the other, the honeymoon effect has deceived pundits before, and the sovereigntist movement is flatlining in Quebec. Only time will tell.

The Green result, if accurate, puts them nearly at Official Party Status. Of course, this model does not represent well the type of vote the Greens get, which is concentrated in various ridings. Also, with large seat counts such as Ontario and Quebec, the model can become more pronounced in its seat error, so these findings should be taken with a grain of salt. However, it does appear that gains for the Greens from 2011 are nearly certain in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec. The Saskatchewan decline just represents a return to form, as the last poll had the Greens at 20% in Saskatchewan, a highly unlikely scenario.

Seat Projection: EKOS Poll, June 16, 2015

Seat Projection: NDP Surge, Conservatives in Third, Forum Poll June 16, 2015

The long-term NDP surge has finally shown up in this week’s Forum poll. On June 5, 2015, when EKOS and Angus Reid were showing the NDP in the lead, Forum’s poll showed a three-way race with the NDP in a close third. Now, the NDP has 34%, the Liberals 28%, the Bloc Quebecois 7%, and the Greens 5%. This is another twist and turn in what has turned out to be quite the volatile state of public opinion since May 2, 2011.

Here is the seat projection my model shows with Forum’s numbers*:
British Columbia: New Democratic 39% (25 seats), Conservative 27% (9 seats), Liberal 24% (7 seats), Green 8% (1 seat), Other 1% (0 seats) Long Term: NDP and Liberal gains at Conservative expense
Alberta: 39% Conservative (19 seats), 35% New Democratic (12 seats), 19% Liberal (3 seats), 6% Green (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats) Long Term: NDP and Liberal gains at Conservative expense
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 36% New Democratic (10 seats), 32% Conservative (12 seats), 27% Liberal (6 seats), 4% Green (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats) Long Term: NDP and Liberal gains at Conservative expense
Ontario: 33% New Democratic (40 seats), 31% Liberal (38 seats), 30% Conservative (40 seats), 5% Green (3 seats), 1% Other (0 seats) Short Term: Liberal and Green gains at Conservative expense Long Term: NDP, Liberal, and Green gains at Conservative expense
Quebec: 31% New Democratic (38 seats), 26% Bloc Quebecois (16 seats), 24% Liberal (15 seats), 15% Conservative (8 seats), 3% Green (1 seat), 1% Other (0 seats) Long Term: Bloc Quebecois, Liberal, Conservative, and Green gains at NDP expense
Atlantic Canada: 38% Liberal (15 seats), 34% New Democratic (11 seats), 24% Conservative (6 seats), 1% Green (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats) Long Term: Liberal and NDP gains at Conservative expense
Total: 34% New Democratic (137 seats), 28% Liberal (84 seats), 26% Conservative (96 seats), 7% Bloc Quebecois (16 seats), 5% Green (5 seats), 1% Other (0 seats)

*Northern Canada not polled, so I will leave their seats the same for simplicity.

According to the numbers, if the election were held tomorrow, the NDP would form a minority government with 137 seats, the Conservatives would take up the Official Opposition with 96 seats despite coming third in the popular vote, the Liberals would be in a strengthened third place with 84 seats, the Bloc Quebecois will return to Official Party Status with 16 seats, and the Greens will increase their caucus to 5 seats.

In relation to the most Angus Reid poll as of the time of writing, there are some interesting swings nationally. Despite having a larger lead over its two opponents in the Forum Poll than the Angus Reid poll, the NDP reduces its caucus by 6 seats with the Forum poll. Overall, though, it remains a minority government. The Conservatives bleed seats, going from a close second to third in the popular vote competing for second place with the Liberals. These seats, at the national level, appear to bleed to the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois.

At the regional level, the NDP gains in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and Atlantic Canada, stagnates in Ontario, and declines in Quebec. The Conservatives gain in Quebec, stagnate in Atlantic Canada, and decline in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and Ontario. The Liberals gain in British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec, stagnate in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and decline in Atlantic Canada. The Bloc Quebecois makes gains in Quebec. The Greens make gains in Ontario and Quebec, stagnate in Alberta, Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and Atlantic Canada, and decline in British Columbia.

If we look at the regional trends in comparison to 2011, the NDP gains everywhere except for Quebec, where it declines. The Liberals gain in all regions. The Conservatives decline everywhere except for Quebec, where they make gains. The Bloc Quebecois makes gains in Quebec. The Greens make gains in Ontario and Quebec, and stay the same everywhere else.

What implications do these results have if representative of public opinion? Of course, four months out from the election, it is impossible to tell whether these numbers will stay. The NDP’s gains as a result of Rachel Notley’s recent win in Alberta do have a possibility of being a honeymoon effect, and that may wane from now until October. The Bloc’s gains may also be a honeymoon effect, and they will remain a small presence in Parliament. However, it is troubling for the Conservatives that the NDP is eating into areas they’ve had on lockdown since their inception. The NDP also may encounter some trouble if the gains they have in other regions are not enough to offset their declines in Quebec. After all, doing well in Quebec is the center of their strategy. If the Bloc forms Official Party Status once again, Quebec separatists will once again have a national podium, and the movement may have a resurgence. The Greens will increase their voice in Parliament, but remain below Official Party status.

Seat Projection: NDP Surge, Conservatives in Third, Forum Poll June 16, 2015

Seat Projection: NDP Leading, Bloc and Grits Flatlining in Angus Reid Poll

Angus Reid came out with a poll that confirms EKOS’s findings vis a vis the NDP: they are opening up a lead. It remains to be seen whether that lead will stay through the honeymoon period of the NDP’s historic result in Alberta, but any statement on where those numbers will go is little more than speculation.

In the poll, 36% support the New Democrats, 33% support the Conservatives, 23% support the Liberals, 4% support the Bloc Quebecois, and 4% support the Greens. There was a ton of speculation as to whether Gilles Duceppe’s return as leader of the Bloc Quebecois would eat into the NDP’s numbers in Quebec, with many predicting a partial resurgence under Duceppe. If this poll is any indication, then it hasn’t had a registered effect.

Here is what my model shows regarding the seat projection*:
British Columbia: 38% New Democratic (21 seats), 30% Conservative (13 seats), 23% Liberal (6 seats), 9% Green (2 seats), 1% Other (0 seats) Short Term: NDP gain at expense of Conservatives and Liberals
Alberta: 56% Conservative (32 seats), 25% New Democratic (3 seats), 14% Liberal (1 seat), 3% Green (0 seats), 2% Other (0 seats) Short Term: Conservative gain at expense of NDP
Saskatchewan: 47% Conservative (10 seats), 30% New Democratic (3 seats), 19% Liberal (1 seat), 4% Green (0 seats), 0% Other (0 seats) Short Term: NDP and Liberal gain at expense of Greens
Manitoba: 47% Conservative (10 seats), 26% Liberal (2 seats), 23% New Democratic (2 seats), 3% Green (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats) Short Term: Conservative gain at expense of Liberals
Ontario: 36% Conservative (59 seats), 34% New Democratic (41 seats), 25% Liberal (20 seats), 3% Green (1 seat), 1% Other (0 seats) Short Term: Conservative gain at expense of NDP
Quebec: 48% New Democratic (66 seats), 17% Liberal (4 seats), 17% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 16% Conservative (4 seats), 1% Green (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats) Short Term: NDP gain at expense of Liberals, Bloc, Conservatives, Greens
Atlantic Canada: 41% Liberal (20 seats), 28% New Democratic (6 seats), 27% Conservative (6 seats), 4% Green (0 seats), 0% Other (0 seats) Short term: Conservative gain at expense of Liberals
Total: 36% New Democratic (142 seats), 33% Conservative (135 seats), 23% Liberal (54 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 4% Green (3 seats), 1% Other

*No information as to the Territories, so their seats stay with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

According to the poll’s numbers, if the election were held tomorrow, the NDP would receive 142 seats, forming a minority government. The Conservatives would take up the Official Opposition closely behind at 135 seats. The Liberals would increase their caucus from their 2011 result, but remain in third. The Bloc Quebecois will maintain their 2011 result at 4 seats, but not move up. The Greens will add a third seat in Ontario.

In terms of its relation to the EKOS poll that came out in 2012, the national and regional trends prove interesting. Nationally, even though the NDP rose three points from the EKOS poll, the Conservatives also rose. In terms of seats, the NDP’s share had a slight decline from the EKOS poll (150 down to 142). The Conservatives make a gain of 35 seats (100 seats up to 135). This was largely a result of the results in Ontario, where EKOS had a wide NDP lead, and Angus Reid has a narrow Conservative lead. The Liberals also decline nationally from 66 seats to 54. The Bloc and Greens both decline to 4 and 3 seats respectively from 11 each. This may represent a decline for a Bloc in seat count, time will tell, but this is more of an offset of the improbable result of 11 seats for the Greens, who likely have not declined at all.

In terms of regional trends over the short term, the NDP has made gains in British Columbia, Saskatchewan, and Quebec, was stagnant in Manitoba and Atlantic Canada, and declined in Alberta and Ontario. The Conservatives made gains in Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, were stagnant in Saskatchewan, and registered declines in British Columbia and Quebec. The Liberals made gains in Saskatchewan, stagnated in Alberta, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, and declined in British Columbia, Manitoba, and Quebec. The Bloc Quebecois declined in Quebec. The Greens retained their support in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, and Atlantic Canada, but decreased their seat counts in Saskatchewan, Ontario, and Quebec. However, I believe that the seat counts in those three provinces were likely overstated by the model, as the Green vote is less uniform than the votes of other parties.

Nationally, the NDP makes a gain of 39 seats from the 2011 election, the Conservatives lose 31, the Liberals gain 20, the Bloc stays the same, and the Greens gain 2. The NDP stands to make gains in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, and Quebec, whilst stagnating in Manitoba and Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives will register varying degrees of decline throughout Canada. The Liberals stand to make gains in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, whilst declining in Quebec. The Bloc stands to stay the same in Quebec. The Greens make gains in British Columbia and Ontario, staying the same everywhere else.

Seat Projection: NDP Leading, Bloc and Grits Flatlining in Angus Reid Poll

Seat Projection: EKOS Poll, June 12, 2015

EKOS has been noticing a continuous rise of the NDP in its polling, which has been documented by other polling firms as well since the NDP’s win in the Alberta Provincial Electon. However, EKOS remains the only polling firm that puts the NDP squarely in first place in terms of the popular vote.

The iPolitics article about the most recent EKOS poll projects the NDP winning 146 seats, the Conservatives 102, the Liberals 85, the Bloc Quebecois 4, and the Greens 1, which would deliver the NDP a minority government, likely with Liberal confidence and supply.

Here is what my model shows*:
British Columbia: 33% New Democratic (14 seats), 31% Conservative (18 seats), 25% Liberal (8 seats), 9% Green (2 seats) (42 seats) NDP and Liberal gains at expense of Conservatives
Alberta: 44% Conservative (24 seats), 31% New Democratic (7 seats), 17% Liberal (3 seats), 4% (0 seats) Green (34 seats) NDP and Liberal gains at expense of Conservatives
Saskatchewan: 41% Conservative (10 seats), 25% New Democratic (2 seats), 23% Green (2 seats), 8% Liberal (0 seats) (14 seats) NDP and Green gains at expense of Conservatives and Liberals
Manitoba: 39% Conservative (9 seats), 29% Liberal (3 seats), 22% New Democratic (2 seats), 8% Green (0 seats) (14 seats) Liberal gains at expense of Conservatives
Ontario: 36% New Democratic (70 seats), 26% Conservative (25 seats), 26% Liberal (21 seats), 8% Green (5 seats) (121 seats) NDP, Liberal, and Green gains at expense of Conservatives
Quebec: 35% New Democratic (49 seats), 21% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 18% Conservative (9 seats), 16% Liberal (8 seats), 5% Green (1 seat) (78 seats) Bloc and Conservative gains at expense of NDP
Atlantic Canada: 43% Liberal (23 seats), 30% New Democratic (6 seats), 18% Conservative (3 seats), 6% Green (0 seats) (32 seats) Liberal gains at expense of Conservatives
Total: 33.6% New Democratic (150 seats), 26.9% Conservative (100 seats), 23.3% Liberal (66 seats), 7.3% Green (11 seats), 5.1% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 4% Other (0 seats)

*Northern Canada is not represented in this poll, so their results will be the status quo for the sake of simplicity.

In comparison to the iPolitics projection, my projection has the NDP and Conservatives largely at the same place. The main difference is that the Liberal projection is significantly lower, with those seats distributed to the Greens and Bloc. One fault of this model is that the Greens are overrepresented due to the large seat counts of Ontario and Quebec without any subregional data. The projection gets skewed with larger numbers of seats, and the equation needs to be tweaked to account for that.

These results predict an NDP minority government with 150 seats, up 47 from their 2011 results. The Conservatives will drop 62 seats to 100. The Liberals will nearly double their caucus with 66 seats, but remain in third place. The Bloc Quebecois will have a partial resurgence, increasing from 4 to 11 seats. If this projection is right about the Greens, they will quintuple their caucus, with huge gains in Ontario.

In terms of regional trends, the Conservatives are declining everywhere except for Quebec. The NDP is registering gains in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Ontario, stagnation in Manitoba and Atlantic Canada, and declines in Quebec from their 2011 results. The Liberals are registering gains in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, stagnating in Quebec, and declining in Saskatchewan from their 2011 results. The Greens are gaining in British Columbia, Ontario, and Quebec. The Bloc is gaining ground in Quebec. No word on the Forces et Democratie, whom pollsters have neglected to include up to this point.

Seat Projection: EKOS Poll, June 12, 2015

Léger Marketing Poll: Quebec Provincial Election/Federal Election in Quebec, June 11, 2015

This is the first projection so far on this website, and it’s for the Quebec general election, and it’s using Leger Marketing’s Poll. About a month ago, Pierre Karl Paladeau became the leader of the Parti Quebecis, which gave the party a slight bump in the polls for a while, leading the governing Liberals and decreasing Legault’s CAQ’s share of support. Interestingly, it had no effect on Quebec Solidaire, the other competing sovereigntist party.

In addition, Gilles Duceppe, the most recognizable leader in Bloc Quebecois history, has become the leader once again. The party was flagging in the polls for a while under Daniel Paille, and even worse under ardent separatist Mario Beaulieu. From the federal aspect of this Leger Marketing poll, it seems that Gilles Duceppe has increased the Bloc’s numbers significantly.

Because this doubles as both a federal and provincial poll, I will make both federal and provincial projections.

Federal:
Montreal: 32% New Democratic (10 seats), 31% Liberal (7 seats), 23% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 12% Conservative (1 seat), 1% Green (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats) (22 seats)
Quebec City: 32% Conservative (3 seats), 28% Bloc Quebecois (1 seat), 26% New Democratic (1 seat), 11% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats) (5 seats)
Rest of Quebec: 32% New Democratic (24 seats), 28% Bloc Quebecois (14 seats), 20% Liberal (7 seats), 17% Conservative (6 seats), 2% Green (0 seats), 0% Other (0 seats) (51 seats) (35 NDP, 5 Con, 4 Bloc, 1 Lib)
Total: 32% New Democratic (35 seats), 26% Bloc Quebecois (19 seats), 24% Liberal (14 seats), 16% Conservative (10 seats), 2% Green (0 seats), 1% Other (0 seats) (78 seats)

If the election were held tomorrow, then the New Democrats would stand to decline from their current 54 seats to 35 seats in Quebec. The Bloc Quebecois would increase its share from 2 seats to 19 seats, still not at their glory days in the 1990s, but returning to Official Party Status. Most of these gains would be at the expense of the NDP The Liberals would double their seat count from 7 to 14 seats, mildly at the expense of the NDP. The Conservatives would also double their seat count from 5 to 10, mainly at the expense of the NDP in Quebec City. The Greens would remain without seats in Quebec.

What implications would these results in Quebec have for the larger federal election? Well, it may prove troubling for the NDP. Quebec was the lion’s share of NDP seats, and any road to power would mean holding on to those seats. Due to the inefficiency of the NDP vote in large swaths of the country, efficient places like Quebec are key. If the seat count declines there, the NDP is in trouble. The Bloc may see a resurgence under Duceppe, but it remains to be seen whether that is a honeymoon effect or a continuous trend. The Conservatives would have a shot at retaining a plurality if they increased the share of the vote in the province they are most unpopular.

Provincial:
Montreal: 42% Liberal (35 seats), 28% Parti Quebecois (9 seats), 18% Coalition Avenir Quebec (4 seats), 9% Quebec Solidaire (1 seat), 3% Other (0 seats) (49 seats) Liberal gains at the expense of Parti Quebecois and Quebec Solidaire
Quebec City: 33% Liberal (6 seats), 30% Parti Quebecois (3 seats), 25% Coalition Avenir Quebec (2 seats), 10% Quebec Solidaire (0 seats), 3% Other (0 seats) (11 seats) Parti Quebecois Gains at expense of Liberals
Rest of Quebec: 36% Parti Quebecois (32 seats), 31% Liberal (20 seats), 22% Coalition Avenir Quebec (10 seats), 10% Quebec Solidaire (3 seats), 1% Other (0 seats) (65 seats) Parti Quebecois and Quebec Solidaire gains at expense of Liberals and CAQ
Total: 36% Liberal (61 seats), 32% Parti Quebecois (44 seats), 20% Coalition Avenir Quebecois (16 seats), 10% Quebec Soldaire (4 seats), 2% Other (0 seats)

If the election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would be re-elected. However, they would be reduced to a minority government with 61 of 125 seats. The Parti Quebecois will again form the Official Opposition, but will increase its share of seats from 30 to 44. Francois Legault’s CAQ will decline from 22 seats to 16, and Quebec Solidaire will increase their caucus from 3 to 4.

Interestingly, the regional data does not specify many transcending trends. In Montreal, the Liberals have increased strength, but the Liberals decline in Quebec City and the rest of Quebec. The Parti Quebecois suffers losses in Montreal, but enjoys gains in Quebec City and the rest of Quebec. The CAQ either stagnates and declines in all regions. Quebec Solidaire declines in Montreal, while it makes huge gains in the rest of Quebec. However, it should be noted that when such a large block of seats is used, the projection gets less accurate. If it included a separation of the Regions of Quebec into two or more regions, then the results may vary.

Léger Marketing Poll: Quebec Provincial Election/Federal Election in Quebec, June 11, 2015