Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, May 31, 2016

Just like Mainstreet Research, Forum has also come out with a new poll detailing the state of the parties in Ontario. However, unlike the Mainstreet poll, it is the Liberals who are declining, not the NDP.

The Progressive Conservatives are at 40%, up from 39% last time Forum was in the field. The Liberals are at 30%, down 4 points from last time. The NDP has remained at 21%. The Greens have gone up 2 points to 7%.

Last time, my model projected 61 Progressive Conservatives, 33 Liberals, and 13 New Democrats.

Here is the seat projection this time around:
Eastern Ontario: 46% Progressive Conservative (10 seats), 32% Liberal (4 seats), 14% New Democratic (0 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Toronto*: 39% Progressive Conservative (13 seats), 33% Liberal (7 seats), 18% New Democratic (2 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
905: 42% Progressive Conservative (25 seats), 32% Liberal (10 seats), 17% New Democratic (3 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Southwest Ontario: 43% Progressive Conservative (16 seats), 28% New Democratic (4 seats), 22% Liberal (2 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 30% Progressive Conservative (3 seats), 29% New Democratic (5 seats), 27% Liberal (3 seats), 10% Green (0 seats)
Total: 40% Progressive Conservative (67 seats), 30% Liberal (26 seats), 21% New Democratic (14 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)

*The 416 and GTA numbers in the Forum poll were combined, since they were available to me.

The Progressive Conservatives have increased their projected seat count from 61 to 67, and the NDP have increased their count from 13 to 14. This has come at the expense of the Liberals, which have lost 7 seats.

Advertisements
Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, May 31, 2016

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s