Seat Projections: Abacus, EKOS, Mainstreet Polls, April 13-15, 2016

Three polling firms were out in the field last week gauging the state of the parties on the federal level. Abacus Data has the Liberals at 49%, the Conservatives at 26%, the NDP at 13%, the Bloc Quebecois at 5%, and the Greens at 5%. EKOS has the Liberals at 44.1%, the Conservatives at 28.5%, the NDP at 12%, the Greens at 6.7%, and the Bloc Quebecois at 4.4%. Mainstreet Research has the Liberals at 48%, the Conservatives at 30%, the NDP at 14%, the Greens at 5%, and the Bloc Quebecois at 3%.

Here is the seat projection for the Abacus Data poll*:
British Columbia: 45% Liberal (30 seats), 29% Conservative (8 seats), 16% New Democratic (3 seats), 10% Green (1 seat)
Alberta: 49% Conservative (25 seats), 34% Liberal (8 seats), 10% New Democratic (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 40% Conservative (18 seats), 31% Liberal (7 seats), 18% New Democratic (3 seats), 10% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 53% Liberal (98 seats), 28% Conservative (17 seats), 13% New Democratic (4 seats), 5% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 47% Liberal (63 seats), 21% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats), 15% Conservative (4 seats), 12% New Democratic (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 76% Liberal (32 seats), 11% New Democratic (0 seats), 9% Conservative (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 49% Liberal (241 seats), 26% Conservative (72 seats), 13% New Democratic (14 seats), 5% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats), 5% Green (3 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the EKOS poll*:
British Columbia: 44.3% Liberal (29 seats), 30.9% Conservative (9 seats), 11.9% New Democratic (2 seats), 11.1% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 52.3% Conservative (29 seats), 30.7% Liberal (5 seats), 7.7% New Democratic (0 seats), 1.5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 52.4% Conservative (13 seats), 21.6% Liberal (1 seat), 20.2% New Democratic (0 seats), 5.8% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 39.9% Liberal (9 seats), 37.6% Conservative (5 seats), 15.3% New Democratic (1 seat), 7.3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 49.9% Liberal (80 seats), 31.8% Conservative (26 seats), 9.3% New Democratic (3 seats), 5.2% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 40.7% Liberal (59 seats), 17.9% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 16% New Democratic (6 seats), 13% Conservative (5 seats), 5.6% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 56% Liberal (29 seats), 16% New Democratic (1 seat), 13.8% Conservative (1 seat), 12.5% Green (1 seat)
Total: 44.1% Liberal (215 seats), 28.5% Conservative (88 seats), 12% New Democratic (13 seats), 6.7% Green (5 seats), 4.4% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the Mainstreet Research poll*:
British Columbia: 45% Liberal (33 seats), 25% Conservative (5 seats), 15% New Democratic (2 seats), 15% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 53% Conservative (26 seats), 35% Liberal (8 seats), 9% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 47% Liberal (16 seats), 38% Conservative (11 seats), 11% New Democratic (1 seat), 3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 55% Liberal (99 seats), 29% Conservative (18 seats), 13% New Democratic (4 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 45% Liberal (59 seats), 21% Conservative (8 seats), 20% New Democratic (8 seats), 12% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 51% Liberal (24 seats), 32% Conservative (7 seats), 12% New Democratic (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 48% Liberal (242 seats), 30% Conservative (75 seats), 14% New Democratic (16 seats), 5% Green (2 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the party that won them in 2015 for the sake of simplicity.

With these numbers, it is projected that no matter which poll is right, if the election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would make gains, the Conservatives would sustain mild losses, the NDP would see at least 63% of its elected 2015 caucus decimated (after having 56% of its caucus decimated in 2015), the Greens would make gains, and the Bloc Quebecois will suffer varying degrees of losses.

Overall, the Liberals are currently stronger than their 2015 results in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan/Manitoba (in 2 cases), Ontario, and Quebec, staying the same in Atlantic Canada (in 1 case), and declining in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (in 1 case) and Atlantic Canada (2 cases). They simply have to maintain momentum to stay golden.

The Conservatives are currently stronger relative to 2015 in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (in 2 cases) and Atlantic Canada (2 cases), stagnating in Alberta (in 1 case) and Atlantic Canda (in 1 case), and declining in British Columbia, Alberta (in 2 cases), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (in 1 case), Ontario, and Quebec. In order to become relevant again, they really have to step it up east of Manitoba. Currently, the Liberals have such a large lead that in each of three cases they can (or almost can in the case of the EKOS poll) form a majority government with their seats from Ontario eastward. They would also have to step it up in British Columbia, in which they were traditionally relatively strong during Harper’s tenure.

The NDP are stronger relative to 2015 in Atlantic Canada (in 2 cases), stagnating in Alberta (in 1 case) and Atlantic Canada (in 1 case), and declining in British Columbia, Alberta (in 2 cases), Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec. In order to keep its caucus at 2015 levels even (much less become competitive), they must regroup in British Columbia and Quebec, two of their strongholds before the 2015 election. This is where 30 of their 44 seats are. In addition, if they wish to be competitive again, they must make inroads in Ontario. 8 seats in a 121-seat province is dismal for a party that wishes to form even the Official Opposition.

The Bloc Quebecois is variably stronger and weaker in the popular vote counts compared to 2015, but compared to 2015, all polls show the BQ declining in the seat count. In order to get that count up, they either have to continue to exploit splits between the Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP and win seats that way, or regain soft sovereigntist support that they have lost to various parties.

The Greens appear to have at least one seat in the bag in British Columbia, so with all polls showing gains, they really need to make inroads into Vancouver Island in British Columbia and a handful of sympathetic ridings in Ontario for 2019. This is especially crucial considering Elizabeth May will have been leader for 13 years, and an enlarged caucus will provide the party with viable successors in the event that she steps down post-2019.

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Seat Projections: Abacus, EKOS, Mainstreet Polls, April 13-15, 2016

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