Seat Projection: Mainstreet Manitoba Poll, February 23, 2016

Mainstreet has come out with a new poll on the political situation in Manitoba. The Progressive Conservatives remain in a wide lead with 52%. It seems that the Liberals are now slightly edging out the NDP for second though, taking 23% to the NDP’s 21%. The Greens have dipped from 9% to 6%.

Here is the seat projection using those numbers:
Winnipeg: 43% Progressive Conservative (22 seats), 25% New Democratic (7 seats), 24% Liberal (6 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)
Not Winnipeg: 60% Progressive Conservative (20 seats), 21% Liberal (2 seats), 15% New Democratic (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 52% Progressive Conservative (42 seats), 23% Liberal (8 seats), 21% New Democratic (7 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)

With these numbers, the Progressive Conservatives have dipped 3 seats to 42. However, this is still a landslide. The Liberals have moved into second place with 8 seats, but this status is vulnerable until they pull ahead of the NDP in Winnipeg. The Greens are now projected to continue to be shut out of the legislature.

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Seat Projection: Mainstreet Manitoba Poll, February 23, 2016

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Ontario Poll, February 22, 2016

Now that the honeymoon for the Liberals in Ontario is over, party support levels have stabilized into a three-way race. The Progressive Conservatives are in the lead with 36%, par for the course for most of the period since the 2014 election. The Liberals, despite Premier Kathleen Wynne only having 29% approval, take the support of 33% of decided voters. Andrea Horwath’s NDP has 26% support. The Greens bring up the rear with 5%.

Here is the seat projection using my model:
Eastern Ontario: 38% Progressive Conservative (5 seats), 34% Liberal (7 seats), 22% New Democratic (2 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Toronto*: 37% Liberal (11 seats), 34% Progressive Conservative (7 seats), 24% New Democratic (4 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
905: 34% Liberal (16 seats), 32% Progressive Conservative (12 seats), 28% New Democratic (9 seats), 6% Green (1 seat)
Southwest Ontario: 40% Progressive Conservative (14 seats), 30% New Democratic (4 seats), 24% Liberal (4 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 36% Progressive Conservative (6 seats), 33% Liberal (3 seats), 26% New Democratic (2 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 36% Progressive Conservative (44 seats), 33% Liberal (41 seats), 26% New Democratic (21 seats), 5% Green (1 seat)

*The 416 and GTA numbers in this poll were combined, since the numbers were available to me.

With these numbers, the Progresssive Conservatives would be projected to have a plurality with 44 out of 107 seats. The Liberals, despite being 3 points behind, only are behind by 3 seats. The NDP would stay at its current number of seats. The Greens would pick up their first seat in the 905 region.

At this point, two scenarios become plausible – either the Progressive Conservatives form a minority government (possibly propped up by the NDP in an anti-Liberal coalition), or the NDP props up a Liberal government to keep the PC’s out another term.

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Ontario Poll, February 22, 2016

Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, February 18, 2016

Philippe Couilliard’s Liberals appear to be holding steady, if CROP’s latest poll is any indication. They are currently in the lead with 36%. Pierre Karl Peladeau’s Parti Quebecois is in second with 31%. Francois Legault’s CAQ is in a distant third with 18%. Bringing up the rear are Quebec Solidaire with 12%, a significant rise from their 2014 result.

Here is my seat projection using those numbers:
Montreal: 40% Liberal (30 seats), 32% Parti Quebecois (13 seats), 15% Coalition Avenir Quebec (3 seats), 12% Quebec Solidaire (3 seats)
Quebec City: 34% Coalition Avenir Quebec (7 seats), 27% Liberal (2 seats), 24% Parti Quebecois (2 seats), 12% Quebec Solidaire (0 seats)
Regions of Quebec: 33% Liberal (22 seats), 31% Parti Quebecois (31 seats), 19% Coalition Avenir Quebec (8 seats), 12% Quebec Solidaire (4 seats)
Total: 36% Liberal (54 seats), 31% Parti Quebecois (46 seats), 18% Coalition Avenir Quebec (18 seats), 12% Quebec Solidaire (7 seats)

With these numbers, though, the Liberals may have something to worry about. Taking 5% less than they did in the election is enough to bring them to minority government status. The PQ, despite being 5 points behind, would be only 8 seats behind. The CAQ would drop from 20 to 18 seats, indicating that despite losing 5% support, it has minimal effect. QS would more than double their caucus to 7 seats.

Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, February 18, 2016

Seat Projeciton: Mainstreet Manitoba Poll, February 16, 2015

In the latest Mainstreet poll of Manitoba politics, The Progressive Conservatives are keeping a wide lead as the Manitoba election approaches, taking in 52% support among decided and leaning voters. Right now, it is a battle for second for the NDP and Liberals, taking 21% and 20%, respectively. The Greens are in fourth with 7%.

Here is my seat projection with those numbers:
Winnipeg: 45% Progressive Conservative (24 seats), 25% New Democratic (6 seats), 21% Liberal (4 seats), 9% Green (1 seat)
Not Winnipeg: 62% Progressive Conservative (21 seats), 19% New Democratic (1 seat), 15% Liberal (0 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 52% Progressive Conservative (45 seats), 21% New Democratic (7 seats), 20% Liberal (4 seats), 7% Green (1 seat)

With these numbers, the Progressive Conservatives would have 45 out of 57 seats, a landslide, but slightly reduced from last time, where they had 47. Those two seats have been picked up by the NDP, who is in a distant Official Opposition with 7 seats (particularly striking since they are a governing party). The Liberals would increase their caucus to 4 seats. The Greens would win their first seat.

Seat Projeciton: Mainstreet Manitoba Poll, February 16, 2015

Seat Projection: Forum Poll, February 18, 2016

It appears that Justin Trudeau’s honeymoon is continuing. In the latest Forum poll, the Liberals have the support of around 1 in 2 decided voters with 49%. The Conservatives are in a distant second with 32%. In an usually distant third are the NDP, with only 10% support. Bringing up the rear are the Greens with 5% and Bloc Quebecois with 3%.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 48% Liberal (31 seats), 33% Conservative (9 seats), 14% New Democratic (2 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 60% Conservative (31 seats), 26% Liberal (3 seats), 7% New Democratic (0 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 42% Liberal (12 seats), 40% Conservative (14 seats), 12% New Democratic (2 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 51% Liberal (89 seats), 35% Conservative (28 seats), 8% New Democratic (2 seats), 5% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 54% Liberal (69 seats), 17% Conservative (4 seats), 13% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 11% New Democratic (2 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 69% Liberal (31 seats), 19% Conservative (1 seat), 10% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 49% Liberal (238 seats), 32% Conservative (87 seats), 10% New Democratic (8 seats), 5% Green (2 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the party that won them.

With these numbers, the Liberals are winning by a huge landslide, projected to take 238 of the 338 seats in the House of Commons. The Conservatives would take a slightly reduced Opposition role with 87 seats. The NDP would be decimated to 18% of their current size with 8 seats. The Bloc would be reduced to its 2011-level preference, and the Greens would double their caucus to 2 seats.

Seat Projection: Forum Poll, February 18, 2016

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Saskatchewan Poll, February 11, 2016

The election campaign is underway in Saskatchewan, and in many ways, the partisan landscape looks the same as last year – the Saskatchewan Party dominating the polls and the NDP languishing in second.

The Saskatchewan Party has 56% support, on par with Brad Wall’s approval ratings. Cam Broten’s NDP is in second with 32%. The Liberals are in a solid third with 8%. Bringing up the rear are the Greens with 4%.

Here is the seat projection using those numbers:
Regina: 48% Saskatchewan (9 seats), 36% New Democratic (3 seats), 9% Green (0 seats), 8% Liberal (0 seats)
Saskatoon: 48% Saskatchewan (9 seats), 41% New Democratic (5 seats), 8% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Rest of Saskatchewan: 61% Saskatchewan (32 seats), 28% New Democratic (3 seats), 9% Liberal (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 56% Saskatchewan (50 seats), 32% New Democratic (11 seats), 8% Liberal (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)

With these results, the Saskatchewan Party is going to win by a landslide in the seat count, taking 50 out of 61 seats. The NDP will remain in Opposition with 11 seats. The Liberals, despite being nearly at 10% in every region, fail to win a seat. The Greens also fail to win a seat.

At this point, the Saskatchewan Party, as an incumbent with widespread support, has to simply consolidate the existing support that it has. The NDP has to break through in Saskatoon and Regina if it wishes to have an increased Opposition, and eat into the Saskatchewan Party’s lead in the rural areas if it wants a shot at a minority government. The Liberals have to consolidate their support in any region as a way to gain representation in the legislature, and the Greens have to consolidate their support in Regina.

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Saskatchewan Poll, February 11, 2016

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Yukon Poll, February 3, 2016

With all the talk about the Saskatchewan and Manitoba elections coming up this year, there has been comparatively little attention to the Yukon. In fact, Mainstreet Research’s poll recently done there is the first since the 2011 election campaign.

In the 2011 election, the Yukon Party got 40% and 11 seats, the NDP got 33% and 6 seats, and the Liberals got 25% and 2 seats. Due to a Liberal crossing the floor to the Yukon Party, the Yukon Party now has 12 seats and the Liberals have one.

However, it appears that the Liberals and the Yukon Party are switching places in the polls. The Liberals under Sandy Silver have 52%. The NDP under Elizabeth Hanson has largely kept its support at 2011 levels with 31%. The Yukon Party is now in a distant third at 17%, indicating a highly unpopular incumbent government.

With those numbers, my algorithm predicts that the Liberals would win 14 out of 19 seats, a huge landslide. To put this in perspective, over two thirds of the entire Yukon legislature would be filled with newly elected members. The NDP, despite retaining the same support, would see their caucus cut in half to 3 seats. This is due to the Liberal landslide victory, which was larger than the Yukon Party’s victory in 2011. The Yukon Party would retain a rump caucus of 2 seats.

However, as the poll shows, 61% of voters are still undecided. Therefore, the election can go anywhere.

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Yukon Poll, February 3, 2016