Mainstreet Research has released a new poll detailing the state of the parties at the federal level. It remains largely the same as two weeks ago. The Liberals have gained one point and are now at 49%, the Conservatives remain at 30%, the New Democrats remain at 14%, the Greens have dropped one point to 4%, and the Bloc Quebecois remains at 3%. It is very possible that the one-point fluctuation between the Liberals and the Greens was statistical noise.
Last time around, my model projected the Liberals would win 242 seats, the Conservatives 75, the NDP 16, the Bloc Quebecois 3, and the Greens 2.
Here is the latest seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 44% Liberal (28 seats), 27% Conservative (8 seats), 18% New Democratic (4 seats), 12% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 52% Conservative (26 seats), 35% Liberal (8 seats), 11% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 49% Liberal (19 seats), 36% Conservative (8 seats), 11% New Democratic (1 seat), 4% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 56% Liberal (100 seats), 29% Conservative (18 seats), 11% New Democratic (3 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 47% Liberal (60 seats), 20% Conservative (8 seats), 19% New Democratic (7 seats), 11% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 52% Liberal (27 seats), 30% Conservative (5 seats), 12% New Democratic (0 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Total: 49% Liberal (245 seats), 30% Conservative (73 seats), 14% New Democratic (15 seats), 4% Green (2 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)
*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the party that won them in 2015.
At the aggregate level, the Liberals have gained 3 seats in the projection from last time, the Conservatives have dropped 2, and the NDP have dropped one. However, this is an incredibly marginal change. The Bloc Quebecois and Greens remain at 3 and 2 seats, respectively.
Compared to last poll, the Liberals gained in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, stayed the same in Alberta, and declined in British Columbia. The Conservatives gained in British Columbia, stayed in the same in Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec, and decline in Saskatchewan/Manitoba and Atlantic Canada. The NDP made gains in British Columbia, stayed the same in Alberta and Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and declined in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. Keep in mind all of these movements are marginal at most.
However, if we were to take these marginal movements at face value, it appears that the Liberals are experiencing slight gains from the Prairies eastward and stagnating in the west, the NDP is experiencing slight gains in the west and experiencing more stagnation and decline as it goes eastward. The Conservatives have a less geographically coherent pattern of change in support.