Manitoba 2016: Projection vs. Reality

Well, my model did not do as well in the 2016 Manitoba election as it did the others.

Winnipeg:
Expected: 20-25 Progressive Conservative, 6-8 New Democratic, 1-5 Liberal, 1-2 Green
Reality: 21 Progressive Conservative, 12 New Democratic, 2 Liberal, 0 Green

Not Winnipeg:
Expected: 22 Progressive Conservative, 0 New Democratic, 0 Liberal, 0 Green
Reality: 19 Progressive Conservative, 2 New Democratic, 1 Liberal, 0 Green

Total:
Expected: 42-47 Progressive Conservative, 6-8 New Democratic, 1-5 Liberal, 1-2 Green
Reality: 40 Progressive Conservative, 14 New Democratic, 3 Liberal, 0 Green

The results were in the projected ranges for the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals in Winnipeg, and for the Greens outside Winnipeg. However, the PC’s underperformed the projections in the rest of Manitoba, NDP outperformed throughout Manitoba, and the Greens underperformed in Winnipeg.

This indicates two potential problems my model might need to solve going forward:
1) It underestimates the incumbency advantage, which happened in the Newfoundland 2015 projection as well.
2) It overestimates the pull of small parties (though the Greens did come close to winning a seat in Winnipeg).

My model will adjust for this in the future.

Advertisements
Manitoba 2016: Projection vs. Reality

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s