Seat Projection: Mainstreet Manitoba Poll, January 27, 2015

The latest in a series of Manitoba polls by Mainstreet Research came out this morning. In this new poll, the plot thickens. The Progressive Conservatives remain in a significant lead with 52%. However, the governing NDP and the resurgent Liberals are tied at 20%, making it unclear who really is in second place. The Greens bring up the rear at 9%.

This represents an 8 point jump for the Progressive Conservatives, who were already ahead, corresponding nearly equally with a 7 point loss for the Liberals. The NDP lost 3 points, corresponding with a Green increase of 3 points. Last time around, this resulted in a projection of 37 PC’s, 10 Liberals, 9 NDP, and 1 Green in the Legislative Assembly.

Here is the latest seat projection using my model:
Winnipeg: 46% Progressive Conservative (22 seats), 23% New Democratic (5 seats), 21% Liberal (3 seats), 10% Green (1 seat)
Not Winnipeg: 61% Progressive Conservative (25 seats), 17% Liberal (1 seat), 14% New Democratic (0 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)
Total: 52% Progressive Conservative (47 seats), 20% New Democratic (5 seats), 20% Liberal (4 seats), 9% Green (1 seat)

This significant 8 point jump brings the projected seat count for the Progressive Conservatives to a landslide – 47 out of 57 seats. The NDP is back in second place in the seat count, but it coincides with a loss of four seats from last projection. The Liberals took a significant dive in the projection from 10 to 4. The Greens remain projected to win their first seat.

At this point, there is not much that any party could do to dislodge the PC lead unless the PC’s have a devastating scandal. If only one party was the opposition to the PC’s, that party would still only net 25 out of 57 seats, rendering it in second place still.

This means that at this point, every party that is not the Progressive Conservatives is in the running for second place at best.. The most the NDP can hope for is to survive as the Official Opposition, which will require consolidating the anti-PC vote in the province, which would be significant in Winnipeg, but not really help it outside of the city. However, any salvaging of the vote is difficult with a low ceiling brought on by Selinger’s low approval rates.

The Liberals, who have a higher ceiling of support and much less baggage, would have an easier path to second place and a potentially more substantial opposition. They have the ability to get votes outside of Winnipeg, which is crucial to this. However, they would have to replace the NDP in Winnipeg as well to hit opposition status due to the wide lead the PC’s have outside of the city.

The Greens, if the model is correct, would reach a huge milestone – their first seat. The best strategy for them is to concentrate resources in one or a few ridings with the most potential, and make an entrance into the mainstream of Manitoba politics that way.

Advertisements
Seat Projection: Mainstreet Manitoba Poll, January 27, 2015

Seat Projection: EKOS Poll, January 18, 2016

EKOS has put out a new poll this evening indicating the continued popularity of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government. The Liberals are currently in a wide lead with 46.7%, over 20 points ahead of the Conservatives, with 25.3%. Tom Mulcair’s NDP is in third with 15.9%. The Greens are at 7%, which is par for the course for an EKOS poll. The Bloc Quebecois brings up the rear with 3.9%. It should be noted that none of these figures represent changes from last month outside of the margin of error.

In December’s EKOS poll, my model showed the Liberals getting 235 seats (a supermajority), the Conservatives with 72, the NDP with 19, and the Greens and BQ with 6 each.

Here is the seat projection for this month’s poll*:
British Columbia: 41.5% Liberal (28 seats), 24.9% New Democratic (7 seats), 19% Conservative (4 seats), 12.3% Green (3 seats)
Alberta: 50.2% Conservative (25 seats), 34.5% Liberal (8 seats), 12.3% New Democratic (1 seat), 2.8% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 39.2% Conservative (9 seats), 28.7% Liberal (3 seats), 22.7% New Democratic (2 seats), 7.8% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 60.7% Liberal (14 seats), 20.1% Conservative (0 seats), 12.7% New Democratic (0 seats), 6.5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 51.1% Liberal (97 seats), 26.5% Conservative (16 seats), 14.6% New Democratic (6 seats), 7.1% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 44.1% Liberal (60 seats), 18.7% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 16.6% New Democratic (6 seats), 14.1% Conservative (4 seats), 5.2% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 57.9% Liberal (29 seats), 24.4% Conservative (3 seats), 8.3% Green (0 seats), 8.1% New Democratic (0 seats)
Total: 46.7% Liberal (242 seats), 25.3% Conservative (61 seats), 15.9% New Democratic (22 seats), 7% Green (6 seats), 3.9% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the party that won them in 2015.

Little movements in the polls do, however, turn out to be significant. The Liberals increase their standing from 235 prospective seats to 242. The Conservatives would lose 11 seats from last month, standing at 61. The NDP would gain 3 projected seats. The Bloc Quebecois would gain a seat. The Greens would remain at 6 seats. Overall, though, this still appears to be a Liberal’s Canada.

The strategies that parties could really use to change their standings are limited. The Liberals have to consolidate the great gains they have made, and they will undoubtedly lose at least part of this high level of support. The trick will be to not let more than the standard amount of loss of support happen. The Conservatives have to consolidate in the Prairies and become more competitive in Ontario in order to even get close to winning the Prime Minister’s office again. The NDP has to reassert itself in British Columbia and Quebec. The Greens have to expand out of British Columbia. The Bloc Quebecois has to expand its support in the Regions of Quebec.

Seat Projection: EKOS Poll, January 18, 2016

Seat Projection: CROP Federal Quebec Poll, January 18, 2016

CROP has also released a poll the state of the Quebec public when it comes to the next federal election. Within the province, the Liberals are dominating by a wide margin with 51%. This is a huge spike from the 36% they received in the election, which gave them a landslide. This comes at the expense of almost all other parties – the NDP has dipped from 25% to 21%, the Conservatives have dipped from 18% to 12%, and the Bloc Quebecois has dipped from 19% to 11%. The Greens are the only other party to make gains, going from 2% to 4%.

Here is the seat projection using my model:
Montreal: 56% Liberal (20 seats), 21% New Democratic (2 seats), 10% Bloc Quebecois (0 seats), 8% Conservative (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Quebec City: 41% Liberal (5 seats), 22% New Democratic (0 seats), 21% Conservative (0 seats), 9% Bloc Quebecois (0 seats, 7% Green (0 seats)
Regions of Quebec: 48% Liberal (39 seats), 21% New Democratic (5 seats), 15% Conservative (3 seats), 12% Bloc Quebecois (2 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 51% Liberal (66 seats), 21% New Democratic (7 seats), 12% Conservative (3 seats), 11% Bloc Quebecois (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)

If a new federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would command a huge landslide in the seat count with 66 out of 78 possible seats, a huge leap from 40. The NDP would backslide from 16 to 7 seats. The Conservatives would nearly implode declining from 12 seats to 3. The Bloc Quebecois would only be able to hold on to 2 of its seats. The Greens would remain shut out of the Quebec delegation to the House of Commons.

Over the next four years, the Liberals have to make sure to consolidate their gains, and all will be well. The NDP has uniform support across the province, which means they have a base to build from everywhere, but it also does not translate into many seats. At the very least, they have to be competitive in Montreal or the Regions (preferably both) in order to be competitive again. The Conservatives would have to make inroads into Quebec City and the Regions again to be competitive. The Bloc has to reassert itself in the Regions, where it gained many of its seats. The Greens have to break through somewhere, but at this point, it could be anywhere.

Seat Projection: CROP Federal Quebec Poll, January 18, 2016

Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, January 18, 2016

The first Quebec poll of 2016 has been released, and CROP was the polling firm in the field. It shows the solidifying of two tiers of parties. The Liberals and Parti Quebecois make the first tier with 35% and 27% each, while the Coalition Avenir Quebec and Quebec Solidaire make up the second tier with 19% and 16% each.

The results represent a status quo for the major parties, but major movement in the second tier – huge losses for the CAQ, but huge gains for Quebec Solidaire.

Here is the seat projection using my model:
Montreal: 39% Liberal (34 seats), 25% Parti Quebecois (8 seats), 16% Quebec Solidaire (4 seats), 14% Coalition Avenir Quebec (3 seats)
Quebec City: 32% Coalition Avenir Quebec (4 seats), 30% Liberal (5 seats), 25% Parti Quebecois (2 seats), 12% Quebec Solidaire (0 seats)
Regions of Quebec: 31% Liberal (30 seats), 31% Parti Quebecois (20 seats), 21% Coalition Avenir Quebec (9 seats), 16% Quebec Solidaire (6 seats)
Total: 35% Liberal (69 seats), 27% Parti Quebecois (30 seats), 19% Coalition Avenir Quebec (16 seats), 16% Quebec Solidaire (10 seats)

The seat standings reflect the changes (or lack thereof) in the popular vote since the 2014 election. The Liberals would only lose one seat, and the Parti Quebecois would gain five, but it’s still a clear victory with a majority governmnt for the Liberals. The CAQ would lose 40% of its caucus in its backslide, and Quebec Solidaire would not only make small gains in Montreal, it would make significant inroads into the Regions.

From the standpoint of strategy, the Liberals would have to consolidate their strength in Montreal and the Regions, and wrest Quebec City out of the hands of the CAQ in order to ensure a majority. The PQ has to either get competitive in Montreal again or open up a real landslide in the Regions before it can be competitive in a provincial election. The CAQ has to consolidate its gains in Quebec City, and reassert itself in Montreal and the Regions, where it has lost significant ground. Quebec Solidaire has to try to eat into PQ support in every part of Quebec to make significant gains, though the party appears to be on track to make gains at this very moment anyway.

Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, January 18, 2016

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Research Poll, January 15, 2016

The second national poll has come out, and Mainstreet Research was the firm that surveyed the field. It basically confirms what other firms have found. The Liberals are in a wide lead with 44%, the Conservatives are in second with 32%, the NDP is in third with 16%, the Greens are at 5%, and the Bloc Quebecois is at 3%.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 37% Liberal (24 seats), 28% Conservative (9 seats), 18% New Democratic (5 seats), 17% Green (4 seats)
Alberta: 54% Conservative (28 seats), 33% Liberal (6 seats), 10% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 43% Liberal (12 seats), 41% Conservative (15 seats), 13% New Democratic (1 seat), 4% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 50% Liberal (89 seats), 32% Conservative (26 seats), 15% New Democratic (6 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 41% Liberal (50 seats), 23% New Democratic (12 seats), 22% Conservative (11 seats), 12% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 49% Liberal (24 seats), 33% Conservative (7 seats), 14% New Democratic (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 44% Liberal (208 seats), 32% Conservative (96 seats), 16% New Democratic (25 seats), 5% Green (4 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the parties that won them in 2015 for the sake of simplicity.

With these numbers in mind, the Liberals would retain a large majority with 208 out of 338 seats, an increase of 24 from their current standings. The Conservatives would remain largely where they are with 96 seats. The NDP would lose the most ground to the Liberals with 25 seats. The Greens would quadruple their caucus to 4 seats. The Bloc Quebecois would see their caucus cut in half with 5 seats.

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Research Poll, January 15, 2016

Seat Projection: Abacus Data Poll, January 12, 2016

It’s been a month since the last poll showing current party standings at the federal level. The most recent one has been released by Abacus Data. The Liberals under Trudeau have so far not really budged – they remain in a wide lead at 45%. The Conservatives under interim leader Rona Ambrose are in a distant second with 28%. Tom Mulcair’s NDP is right around where it was in the election with 17%. The Greens and Bloc Quebecois bring up the rear with 5% each.

Here is the seat projection for this poll using my model*:
British Columbia: 43% Liberal (31 seats), 23% Conservative (5 seats), 21% New Democratic (4 seats), 11% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 52% Conservative (29 seats), 29% Liberal (5 seats), 11% New Democratic (0 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 51% Conservative (24 seats), 30% Liberal (4 seats), 14% New Democratic (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 45% Liberal (83 seats), 34% Conservative (27 seats), 16% New Democratic (10 seats), 4% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 46% Liberal (60 seats), 19% New Democratic (7 seats), 17% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 14% Conservative (4 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 64% Liberal (30 seats), 16% New Democratic (1 seat), 15% Conservative (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 45% Liberal (216 seats), 28% Conservative (90 seats), 17% New Democratic (22 seats), 5% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 5% Green (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the parties that won them in 2015 for the sake of simplicity.

With these numbers, the Liberals would fall out of supermajority territory but still have a commanding majority with 216 out of 338 seats. The Conservatives would fall in the seat count slightly to 90. The NDP, despite only being slightly less popular than on election day, would find their caucus cut exactly in half due to the wide Liberal lead. The Bloc Quebecois would be slightly reduced to 7 seats. The Greens would triple their caucus to 3 seats.

Seat Projection: Abacus Data Poll, January 12, 2016

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Technologies Manitoba Poll, January 11, 2016

Mainstreet Technologies has been quite active as of late within western Canadian provincial politics, and this most recent poll they have put out brings them to Manitoba. In a recent poll put out by Insightrix, the Progressive Conservatives remained in the lead (as they have been for some time) with 39%, but with the Liberals nipping at their heels with 36%, and the NDP at a distant 19%. However, since I have not tracked down complete regional data, I have not been able to do that poll.

This most recent poll by Mainstreet confirms the Liberal move into 2nd place, but not by the same decisive margin. The poll peg’s Brian Pallister’s Progressive Conservatives at 44%, with the Liberals in a distant second at 27%, the NDP at 23%, and the Greens at 6%. This puts the Liberals and NDP in a statistical tie.

Here is the seat projection using my model:
Winnipeg: 37% Progressive Conservative (15 seats), 28% New Democratic (9 seats), 27% Liberal (6 seats), 8% Green (1 seat)
Not Winnipeg: 55% Progressive Conservative (22 seats), 29% Liberal (4 seats), 14% New Democratic (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 44% Progressive Conservative (37 seats), 27% Liberal (10 seats), 23% New Democratic (9 seats), 6% Green (1 seat)

With these numbers, my model predicts that the Progressive Conservatives would handily win by a landslide with a majority government, taking 37 out of the 57 available seats. The Liberals have an efficient enough vote to be placed in the Official Opposition for the first time since 1990. The governing NDP would be reduced to 3rd place similarly to the last time they lost government, but one by-election could switch 2nd and 3rd place. They would also be wiped out of the province outside of Winnipeg, not a good sign for them considering they are not anywhere close to taking the lion’s share of the vote within Winnipeg. The division within Winnipeg gives the Greens the opportunity to take their first seat, but they remain a non-factor outside of the city.

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Technologies Manitoba Poll, January 11, 2016