Seat Projection: Mainstreet Ontario Poll, May 18, 2016

A Mainstreet Research poll has been released detailing the state of the parties in Ontario. Compared to last time, it appears to be a consolidation of major party support.

The Progressive Conservatives have 38%, up from 36% the last time Mainstreet was in the field. The Liberals also increased from 33% to 36%. This came at the expense of the NDP, which is down 6 points to 20%. The Greens are at 5%, just like three months ago.

With the last Mainstreet poll, my model projected 44 PC seats, 41 Liberal seats, 21 NDP seats, and 1 Green seat.

Here is the latest seat projection using my model:
Eastern Ontario: 39% Liberal (7 seats), 36% Progressive Conservative (5 seats), 20% New Democratic (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Toronto: 41% Liberal (14 seats), 33% Progressive Conservative (6 seats), 19% New Democratic (2 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
905: 41% Progressive Conservative (19 seats), 33% Liberal (13 seats), 23% New Democratic (6 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Southwest Ontario: 39% Progressive Conservative (14 seats), 31% Liberal (5 seats), 22% New Democratic (3 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 42% Progressive Conservative (7 seats), 32% New Democratic (2 seats), 23% Liberal (2 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 38% Progressive Conservative (51 seats), 36% Liberal (41 seats), 20% New Democratic (15 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)

*The 416 and GTA numbers in this poll were combined, since the numbers were available to me.

At the aggregate level, the Progressive Conservatives have increased 7 seats, at the expense of both the NDP and the Greens, while the Liberals have stayed where they are.

However, at the regional level, there is more complicated movement. The Liberals improved their performance in Toronto, a stronghold, Eastern Ontario (PC-friendly territory), and Southwest Ontario (a PC stronghold), but those gains are offset by setbacks in PC/NDP competitive areas like the 905 and Northern Ontario. If trends continue, some areas will be PC/NDP contests and some will be PC/Liberal contests. Depending on how the Liberals and NDP do, this could either be an easy divide-and-conquer for the PC’s, or a strategic block from power.

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Seat Projection: Mainstreet Ontario Poll, May 18, 2016

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