Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, May 23, 2016

CROP has released a new poll detailing the state of Quebec politics. Much has changed since I last did a seat projection in February. Most of the change revolves around the Parti Quebecois, which is currently leaderless after the resignation of Pierre Karl Péladeau.

This has caused a massive change for its numbers. While the Liberals and Quebec Solidaire have remained largely unchanged, only going down from 36% to 34% and 12% to 11% respectively, the Parti Quebecois has fallen from 31% to 26%. This would be less startling if weren’t for the fact that this puts the PQ in third place. Coalition Avenir Quebec has rebounded from 18% to 27%, appearing to eat up the losses of the other parties.

In the last CROP poll projection, my model predicted 54 Liberal seats, 46 PQ seats, 18 CAQ seats, and 7 QS seats.

Here is the new seat projection using my model:
Montreal: 32% Liberal (14 seats), 30% Coalition Avenir Quebec (9 seats), 23% Parti Quebecois (5 seats), 10% Quebec Solidaire (1 seat)
Montreal Island: 36% Liberal (13 seats), 25% Coalition Avenir Quebec (3 seats), 24% Parti Quebecois (3 seats), 12% Quebec Solidaire (1 seat)
Quebec City: 34% Coalition Avenir Quebec (6 seats), 29% Liberal (3 seats), 28% Parti Quebecois (2 seats), 3% Quebec Solidarie (0 seats)
Regions of Quebec: 34% Liberal (33 seats), 27% Parti Quebecois (18 seats), 24% Coalition Avenir Quebec (10 seats), 13% Quebec Solidaire (4 seats)
Total: 34% Liberal (63 seats), 27% Coalition Avenir Quebec (28 seats), 26% Parti Quebecois (28 seats), 11% Quebec Solidarie (6 seats)

With these numbers, it appears that the Liberals are now projected to have a slight majority, with 63 out of 125 seats. The CAQ and PQ would be tied for opposition status with 28 seats each, which is a gain for both parties from their 2014 result, but a huge decline for the PQ from February. Quebec SOlidaire would take 6 seats, doubling their 2014 result.

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Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, May 23, 2016

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