It finally seems like Manitoba has a clear second place party. For a while, the governing NDP and the resurgent Liberals were battling it out to see who would become the opposition to the Progressive Conservatives. However, the NDP has pulled ahead in both the latest Probe Research and Mainstreet polls with 28% and 24%, respectively, to the Liberals’ 20% and 17%, respectively. However, this still is far behind the leading Progressive Conservatives, who have 46% and 50%, respectively.
Here is the seat projection with both polls using my model:
Winnipeg: 38% Progressive Conservative (13 seats), 34% New Democratic (16 seats), 21% Liberal (5 seats), 7% Green (1 seat)
Not Winnipeg: 59% Progressive Conservative (21 seats), 19% Liberal (1 seat), 18% New Democratic (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 46% Progressive Conservative (34 seats), 28% New Democratic (16 seats), 20% Liberal (6 seats), 6% Green (1 seat)
Winnipeg: 46% Progressive Conservative (24 seats), 29% New Democratic (8 seats), 16% Liberal (2 seats), 9% Green (1 seat)
Not Winnipeg: 55% Progressive Conservative (20 seats), 20% Liberal (1 seat), 16% New Democratic (1 seat), 9% Green (0 seats)
Total: 50% Progressive Conservative (44 seats), 24% New Democratic (9 seats), 17% Liberal (3 seats), 9% Green (1 seat)
Both polls, despite similar totals, predict somewhat different results. Probe has the NDP close to the PC’s in Winnipeg, which nets them their 16 seats, though they remain shut out of the rest of Manitoba. However, Mainstreet has the NDP further behind, minimizing the incumbency advantage and giving the NDP only 8 seats in the city. My projections with both polls interestingly predict the Greens getting a seat in Winnipeg, but the probability of this remains to be seen.