Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, May 31, 2016

Just like Mainstreet Research, Forum has also come out with a new poll detailing the state of the parties in Ontario. However, unlike the Mainstreet poll, it is the Liberals who are declining, not the NDP.

The Progressive Conservatives are at 40%, up from 39% last time Forum was in the field. The Liberals are at 30%, down 4 points from last time. The NDP has remained at 21%. The Greens have gone up 2 points to 7%.

Last time, my model projected 61 Progressive Conservatives, 33 Liberals, and 13 New Democrats.

Here is the seat projection this time around:
Eastern Ontario: 46% Progressive Conservative (10 seats), 32% Liberal (4 seats), 14% New Democratic (0 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Toronto*: 39% Progressive Conservative (13 seats), 33% Liberal (7 seats), 18% New Democratic (2 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
905: 42% Progressive Conservative (25 seats), 32% Liberal (10 seats), 17% New Democratic (3 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Southwest Ontario: 43% Progressive Conservative (16 seats), 28% New Democratic (4 seats), 22% Liberal (2 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 30% Progressive Conservative (3 seats), 29% New Democratic (5 seats), 27% Liberal (3 seats), 10% Green (0 seats)
Total: 40% Progressive Conservative (67 seats), 30% Liberal (26 seats), 21% New Democratic (14 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)

*The 416 and GTA numbers in the Forum poll were combined, since they were available to me.

The Progressive Conservatives have increased their projected seat count from 61 to 67, and the NDP have increased their count from 13 to 14. This has come at the expense of the Liberals, which have lost 7 seats.

Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, May 31, 2016

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Ontario Poll, May 18, 2016

A Mainstreet Research poll has been released detailing the state of the parties in Ontario. Compared to last time, it appears to be a consolidation of major party support.

The Progressive Conservatives have 38%, up from 36% the last time Mainstreet was in the field. The Liberals also increased from 33% to 36%. This came at the expense of the NDP, which is down 6 points to 20%. The Greens are at 5%, just like three months ago.

With the last Mainstreet poll, my model projected 44 PC seats, 41 Liberal seats, 21 NDP seats, and 1 Green seat.

Here is the latest seat projection using my model:
Eastern Ontario: 39% Liberal (7 seats), 36% Progressive Conservative (5 seats), 20% New Democratic (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Toronto: 41% Liberal (14 seats), 33% Progressive Conservative (6 seats), 19% New Democratic (2 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
905: 41% Progressive Conservative (19 seats), 33% Liberal (13 seats), 23% New Democratic (6 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Southwest Ontario: 39% Progressive Conservative (14 seats), 31% Liberal (5 seats), 22% New Democratic (3 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 42% Progressive Conservative (7 seats), 32% New Democratic (2 seats), 23% Liberal (2 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 38% Progressive Conservative (51 seats), 36% Liberal (41 seats), 20% New Democratic (15 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)

*The 416 and GTA numbers in this poll were combined, since the numbers were available to me.

At the aggregate level, the Progressive Conservatives have increased 7 seats, at the expense of both the NDP and the Greens, while the Liberals have stayed where they are.

However, at the regional level, there is more complicated movement. The Liberals improved their performance in Toronto, a stronghold, Eastern Ontario (PC-friendly territory), and Southwest Ontario (a PC stronghold), but those gains are offset by setbacks in PC/NDP competitive areas like the 905 and Northern Ontario. If trends continue, some areas will be PC/NDP contests and some will be PC/Liberal contests. Depending on how the Liberals and NDP do, this could either be an easy divide-and-conquer for the PC’s, or a strategic block from power.

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Ontario Poll, May 18, 2016