Seat Projection: Mainstreet Research Poll, April 27, 2016

Mainstreet Research has released a new poll detailing the state of the parties at the federal level. It remains largely the same as two weeks ago. The Liberals have gained one point and are now at 49%, the Conservatives remain at 30%, the New Democrats remain at 14%, the Greens have dropped one point to 4%, and the Bloc Quebecois remains at 3%. It is very possible that the one-point fluctuation between the Liberals and the Greens was statistical noise.

Last time around, my model projected the Liberals would win 242 seats, the Conservatives 75, the NDP 16, the Bloc Quebecois 3, and the Greens 2.

Here is the latest seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 44% Liberal (28 seats), 27% Conservative (8 seats), 18% New Democratic (4 seats), 12% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 52% Conservative (26 seats), 35% Liberal (8 seats), 11% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 49% Liberal (19 seats), 36% Conservative (8 seats), 11% New Democratic (1 seat), 4% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 56% Liberal (100 seats), 29% Conservative (18 seats), 11% New Democratic (3 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 47% Liberal (60 seats), 20% Conservative (8 seats), 19% New Democratic (7 seats), 11% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 52% Liberal (27 seats), 30% Conservative (5 seats), 12% New Democratic (0 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Total: 49% Liberal (245 seats), 30% Conservative (73 seats), 14% New Democratic (15 seats), 4% Green (2 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the party that won them in 2015.

At the aggregate level, the Liberals have gained 3 seats in the projection from last time, the Conservatives have dropped 2, and the NDP have dropped one. However, this is an incredibly marginal change. The Bloc Quebecois and Greens remain at 3 and 2 seats, respectively.

Compared to last poll, the Liberals gained in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, stayed the same in Alberta, and declined in British Columbia. The Conservatives gained in British Columbia, stayed in the same in Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec, and decline in Saskatchewan/Manitoba and Atlantic Canada. The NDP made gains in British Columbia, stayed the same in Alberta and Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and declined in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. Keep in mind all of these movements are marginal at most.

However, if we were to take these marginal movements at face value, it appears that the Liberals are experiencing slight gains from the Prairies eastward and stagnating in the west, the NDP is experiencing slight gains in the west and experiencing more stagnation and decline as it goes eastward. The Conservatives have a less geographically coherent pattern of change in support.

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Research Poll, April 27, 2016

Seat Projections: Abacus, EKOS, Mainstreet Polls, April 13-15, 2016

Three polling firms were out in the field last week gauging the state of the parties on the federal level. Abacus Data has the Liberals at 49%, the Conservatives at 26%, the NDP at 13%, the Bloc Quebecois at 5%, and the Greens at 5%. EKOS has the Liberals at 44.1%, the Conservatives at 28.5%, the NDP at 12%, the Greens at 6.7%, and the Bloc Quebecois at 4.4%. Mainstreet Research has the Liberals at 48%, the Conservatives at 30%, the NDP at 14%, the Greens at 5%, and the Bloc Quebecois at 3%.

Here is the seat projection for the Abacus Data poll*:
British Columbia: 45% Liberal (30 seats), 29% Conservative (8 seats), 16% New Democratic (3 seats), 10% Green (1 seat)
Alberta: 49% Conservative (25 seats), 34% Liberal (8 seats), 10% New Democratic (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 40% Conservative (18 seats), 31% Liberal (7 seats), 18% New Democratic (3 seats), 10% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 53% Liberal (98 seats), 28% Conservative (17 seats), 13% New Democratic (4 seats), 5% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 47% Liberal (63 seats), 21% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats), 15% Conservative (4 seats), 12% New Democratic (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 76% Liberal (32 seats), 11% New Democratic (0 seats), 9% Conservative (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 49% Liberal (241 seats), 26% Conservative (72 seats), 13% New Democratic (14 seats), 5% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats), 5% Green (3 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the EKOS poll*:
British Columbia: 44.3% Liberal (29 seats), 30.9% Conservative (9 seats), 11.9% New Democratic (2 seats), 11.1% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 52.3% Conservative (29 seats), 30.7% Liberal (5 seats), 7.7% New Democratic (0 seats), 1.5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 52.4% Conservative (13 seats), 21.6% Liberal (1 seat), 20.2% New Democratic (0 seats), 5.8% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 39.9% Liberal (9 seats), 37.6% Conservative (5 seats), 15.3% New Democratic (1 seat), 7.3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 49.9% Liberal (80 seats), 31.8% Conservative (26 seats), 9.3% New Democratic (3 seats), 5.2% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 40.7% Liberal (59 seats), 17.9% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 16% New Democratic (6 seats), 13% Conservative (5 seats), 5.6% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 56% Liberal (29 seats), 16% New Democratic (1 seat), 13.8% Conservative (1 seat), 12.5% Green (1 seat)
Total: 44.1% Liberal (215 seats), 28.5% Conservative (88 seats), 12% New Democratic (13 seats), 6.7% Green (5 seats), 4.4% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the Mainstreet Research poll*:
British Columbia: 45% Liberal (33 seats), 25% Conservative (5 seats), 15% New Democratic (2 seats), 15% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 53% Conservative (26 seats), 35% Liberal (8 seats), 9% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 47% Liberal (16 seats), 38% Conservative (11 seats), 11% New Democratic (1 seat), 3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 55% Liberal (99 seats), 29% Conservative (18 seats), 13% New Democratic (4 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 45% Liberal (59 seats), 21% Conservative (8 seats), 20% New Democratic (8 seats), 12% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 51% Liberal (24 seats), 32% Conservative (7 seats), 12% New Democratic (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 48% Liberal (242 seats), 30% Conservative (75 seats), 14% New Democratic (16 seats), 5% Green (2 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the party that won them in 2015 for the sake of simplicity.

With these numbers, it is projected that no matter which poll is right, if the election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would make gains, the Conservatives would sustain mild losses, the NDP would see at least 63% of its elected 2015 caucus decimated (after having 56% of its caucus decimated in 2015), the Greens would make gains, and the Bloc Quebecois will suffer varying degrees of losses.

Overall, the Liberals are currently stronger than their 2015 results in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan/Manitoba (in 2 cases), Ontario, and Quebec, staying the same in Atlantic Canada (in 1 case), and declining in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (in 1 case) and Atlantic Canada (2 cases). They simply have to maintain momentum to stay golden.

The Conservatives are currently stronger relative to 2015 in Saskatchewan/Manitoba (in 2 cases) and Atlantic Canada (2 cases), stagnating in Alberta (in 1 case) and Atlantic Canda (in 1 case), and declining in British Columbia, Alberta (in 2 cases), Saskatchewan/Manitoba (in 1 case), Ontario, and Quebec. In order to become relevant again, they really have to step it up east of Manitoba. Currently, the Liberals have such a large lead that in each of three cases they can (or almost can in the case of the EKOS poll) form a majority government with their seats from Ontario eastward. They would also have to step it up in British Columbia, in which they were traditionally relatively strong during Harper’s tenure.

The NDP are stronger relative to 2015 in Atlantic Canada (in 2 cases), stagnating in Alberta (in 1 case) and Atlantic Canada (in 1 case), and declining in British Columbia, Alberta (in 2 cases), Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec. In order to keep its caucus at 2015 levels even (much less become competitive), they must regroup in British Columbia and Quebec, two of their strongholds before the 2015 election. This is where 30 of their 44 seats are. In addition, if they wish to be competitive again, they must make inroads in Ontario. 8 seats in a 121-seat province is dismal for a party that wishes to form even the Official Opposition.

The Bloc Quebecois is variably stronger and weaker in the popular vote counts compared to 2015, but compared to 2015, all polls show the BQ declining in the seat count. In order to get that count up, they either have to continue to exploit splits between the Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP and win seats that way, or regain soft sovereigntist support that they have lost to various parties.

The Greens appear to have at least one seat in the bag in British Columbia, so with all polls showing gains, they really need to make inroads into Vancouver Island in British Columbia and a handful of sympathetic ridings in Ontario for 2019. This is especially crucial considering Elizabeth May will have been leader for 13 years, and an enlarged caucus will provide the party with viable successors in the event that she steps down post-2019.

Seat Projections: Abacus, EKOS, Mainstreet Polls, April 13-15, 2016

Manitoba 2016: Projection vs. Reality

Well, my model did not do as well in the 2016 Manitoba election as it did the others.

Winnipeg:
Expected: 20-25 Progressive Conservative, 6-8 New Democratic, 1-5 Liberal, 1-2 Green
Reality: 21 Progressive Conservative, 12 New Democratic, 2 Liberal, 0 Green

Not Winnipeg:
Expected: 22 Progressive Conservative, 0 New Democratic, 0 Liberal, 0 Green
Reality: 19 Progressive Conservative, 2 New Democratic, 1 Liberal, 0 Green

Total:
Expected: 42-47 Progressive Conservative, 6-8 New Democratic, 1-5 Liberal, 1-2 Green
Reality: 40 Progressive Conservative, 14 New Democratic, 3 Liberal, 0 Green

The results were in the projected ranges for the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals in Winnipeg, and for the Greens outside Winnipeg. However, the PC’s underperformed the projections in the rest of Manitoba, NDP outperformed throughout Manitoba, and the Greens underperformed in Winnipeg.

This indicates two potential problems my model might need to solve going forward:
1) It underestimates the incumbency advantage, which happened in the Newfoundland 2015 projection as well.
2) It overestimates the pull of small parties (though the Greens did come close to winning a seat in Winnipeg).

My model will adjust for this in the future.

Manitoba 2016: Projection vs. Reality

Final Seat Projection, Manitoba 2016 Election

Hello folks, it’s that time – the morning of the election, when I deliver my final seat projection.

Winnipeg: 20-25 Progressive Conservative, 6-8 New Democratic, 1-5 Liberal, 1-2 Green
Not Winnipeg: 22 Progressive Conservative, 0 New Democratic, 0 Liberal, 0 Green
Total: 42-47 Progressive Conservative, 6-8 New Democratic, 1-5 Liberal, 1-2 Green

With this final projection, it appears all but certain that the Progressive Conservatives will be forming a strong government, taking all the seats outside of Winnipeg, and the lion’s share of seats within Winnipeg. The NDP will form the Official Opposition, but depending on how well the NDP and PC’s do, that status may be fragile. The Greens are set to pick up 1 or 2 seats in Winnipeg according to my model, owing to the rise in popularity for the party.

Final Seat Projection, Manitoba 2016 Election

Seat Projection: Leger Marketing Quebec Poll, March 24, 2016

The latest Leger poll detailing Quebec politics slipped me by, folks. I apologize, it’s been somewhat of a hectic couple of weeks so I am catching up now.

It shows the state of the parties as pretty similar to the last few months – the Liberals are in a narrow lead with 33%. The Parti Quebecois is trailing only slightly with 30%. The Coalition Avenir Quebec is in third with 22%. Quebec Solidaire brings up the rear with 10%.

Here is the seat projection with those numbers:
Montreal: 39% Liberal (34 seats), 26% Parti Quebecois (8 seats), 16% Coalition Avenir Quebec (4 seats), 11% Quebec Solidaire (3 seats)
Quebec City: 35% Coalition Avenir Quebec (7 seats), 25% Liberal (2 seats), 24% Parti Quebecois (2 seats), 12% Quebec Solidaire (0 seats)
Regions of Quebec: 37% Parti Quebecois (37 seats), 27% Liberal (14 seats), 25% Coalition Avenir Quebec (11 seats), 8% Quebec Solidaire (3 seats)
Total: 33% Liberal (50 seats), 30% Parti Quebecois (47 seats), 22% Coalition Avenir Quebec (22 seats), 10% Quebec Solidaire (6 seats)

With these numbers, it appears that the Liberals would narrowly hold on to power in the form of a minority government with a projected 50 seats. The PQ would get 47 seats, remaining in opposition, but even two favorable by-elections or floor crossings could swing the pendulum to them. This makes the balance of power rest at the CAQ, who would have 22 seats. Quebec Solidaire would continue their rise with a projected 6 seats.

Seat Projection: Leger Marketing Quebec Poll, March 24, 2016

Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, March 26, 2016

It appears that this new Forum Ontario poll slipped through my radar. My bad, folks. It appears, though, that the Progressive Conservatives remain in the lead after they shot up in the polls earlier in the year according to a previous Forum poll. They have 40%, with the Liberals in second with 27%, the NDP with 24%, and the Greens with 5%. This is a 4% decline for the Progressive Conservatives and a 2% gain for the NDP.

Last time around, my model projected 77 Progressive Conservative seats, 18 Liberal seats, 12 NDP seats, and 0 Green seats.

Here is the latest projection with my model:
Eastern Ontario: 41% Progressive Conservative (9 seats), 33% Liberal (4 seats), 19% New Democratic (1 seat), 8% Green (0 seats)
Toronto*: 39% Progressive Conservative (12 seats), 34% Liberal (7 seats), 22% New Democratic (3 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
905: 42% Progressive Conservative (23 seats), 28% Liberal (9 seats), 25% New Democratic (6 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Southwest Ontario: 42% Progressive Conservative (15 seats), 26% New Democratic (4 seats), 23% Liberal (3 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 33% Progressive Conservative (4 seats), 30% Liberal (3 seats), 29% New Democratic (4 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 40% Progressive Conservative (63 seats), 27% Liberal (26 seats), 24% New Democratic (18 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)

*The 416 and GTA numbers in the Forum poll were combined, since they were available to me.

With these numbers, it appears the slight decline for the PC’s means quite a bit to the seat projections. They are now projected to get 63 seats, which is still a majority, but it’s not the commanding majority of 77. The Liberals have bounced back, and are now projected to get 26 seats, which is still a far cry from their current 58. The NDP also bounces back to 18 projected seats, but this is still less than their current total. The Greens remain shut out.

Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, March 26, 2016

Seat Projections: EKOS & Forum polls, March 29-April 5, 2016

In the last week, two polls have been released detailing the state of the parties federally.

The March 29 EKOS poll has the Liberals in the lead with 42.1%, the Conservatives in second with 31.7%, the NDP in a distant third with 11.7%, the Greens with 6.4%, and the Bloc Quebecois with 4.8%.

The April 5 Forum Research poll has the Liberals even higher at 51%, with the Conservatives at 28%, the NDP at 12%, the Bloc Quebecois at 6%, and the Greens at 3%.

Here is the seat projection for the EKOS poll*:
British Columbia: 54.9% Liberal (37 seats), 17.1% Conservative (2 seats), 14.7% Green (2 seats), 9.9% New Democratic (1 seat)
Alberta: 57.5% Conservative (31 seats), 24.9% Liberal (3 seats), 8.9% New Democratic (0 seats), 3.9% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 56.2% Conservative (12 seats), 30.1% Liberal (2 seats), 9.1% New Democratic (0 seats), 1.3% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 45% Conservative (10 seats), 27.6% Liberal (3 seats), 16% Green (1 seat), 11.4% New Democratic (0 seats)
Ontario: 41.5% Liberal (67 seats), 40% Conservative (48 seats), 10.8% New Democratic (4 seats), 5.4% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 42.4% Liberal (58 seats), 19.9% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats), 15.8% Conservative (6 seats), 15.5% New Democratic (6 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 58.6% Liberal (30 seats), 14.3% Conservative (1 seat), 12.7% New Democratic (1 seat), 10.5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 42.1% Liberal (203 seats), 31.7% Conservative (110 seats), 11.7% New Democratic (12 seats), 6.4% Green (5 seats), 4.8% Bloc Quebecois (8 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the Forum poll*:
British Columbia: 49% Liberal (31 seats), 31% Conservative (9 seats), 13% New Democratic (2 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 58% Conservative (28 seats), 33% Liberal (6 seats), 7% New Democratic (0 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 42% Conservative (16 seats), 40% Liberal (11 seats), 11% New Democratic (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 56% Liberal (100 seats), 29% Conservative (18 seats), 11% New Democratic (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 48% Liberal (61 seats), 23% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 14% Conservative (4 seats), 14% New Democratic (4 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 71% Liberal (32 seats), 12% Conservative (0 seats), 11% New Democratic (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 51% Liberal (244 seats), 28% Conservative (75 seats), 12% New Democratic (10 seats), 6% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I left their seats with the party that won them in 2015, the Liberals.

With these numbers, it’s very clear that whether the EKOS or Forum polls are right, the Liberals would still make gains relative to their position in the 2015 election. The Conservatives stagnate for the most part, but retain their core 28-31%. The NDP would see its caucus further decimated after it was decimated in 2015, a bad sign for the party’s future. The Bloc Quebecois appears to be staying afloat. The Greens could either make gains or total losses.

Seat Projections: EKOS & Forum polls, March 29-April 5, 2016