Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, April 28, 2016

A recent Forum poll showing the state of the parties in Ontario has Pat Brown’s Progressive Conservatives continuing to lose their lead.

The Progressive Conservatives have 39%, which is only 1 point down from March (40%), but it is 5 points down from February (44%). The Liberals have 34%, which is up 4 points from March (30%), and 7 points up from February (27%). The NDP have 21%, which is down 3 points from March (24%) but only down one point from February (22%). The Greens have remained at 5% the whole time.

In February, my seat projection model showed 77 Progressive Conservatives, 18 Liberals, and 12 New Democrats. In March, it showed 63 Progressive Conservatives, 26 Liberals, and 18 New Democrats.

Here is the seat projection with the current numbers:
Eastern Ontario: 43% Progressive Conservative (10 seats), 40% Liberal (4 seats), 12% New Democratic (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Toronto*: 39% Progressive Conservative (12 seats), 34% Liberal (7 seats), 21% New Democratic (3 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
905: 39% Progressive Conservative (20 seats), 32% Liberal (12 seats), 22% New Democratic (6 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Southwest Ontario: 42% Progressive Conservative (16 seats), 29% Liberal (4 seats), 21% New Democratic (2 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 37% Liberal (6 seats), 30% Progressive Conservative (3 seats), 26% New Democratic (2 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Total: 39% Progressive Conservatives (61 seats), 34% Liberal (33 seats), 21% New Democratic (13 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)

*The 416 and GTA numbers in the Forum poll were combined, since they were available to me.

With these numbers, overall the Progressive Conservatives do not lose much ground, only going down 2 seats to 61. The Liberals gain 7 seats and are now projected to get 33, which is still opposition status but improving. The NDP has gone down in the count from 18 to 13, despite having a similar popular vote total to the 2014 election.

In terms of seat count from March, the PC’s gained in Eastern Ontario and Southwest Ontario, and held steady in Toronto, and declined in the 905 (a PC stronghold) and Northern Ontario. The Liberals gained in Southwest Ontario, the 905 and Northern Ontario and held steady in Eastern Ontario and Toronto. The NDP held steady in Toronto and the 905 and declined in Eastern Ontario, Southwest Ontario, and Northern Ontario.

In terms of seat count from February, the PC’s have held steady in Toronto and Southwest Ontario, declined in Eastern Ontario, the 905, and Northern Ontario. The Liberals have gained in Eastern Ontario, the 905, Southwestern Ontario, and Northern Ontario, and held steady in Toronto. The NDP has gained in the 905 and Northern Ontario, held steady in Eastern Ontario and Toronto, and declined in Southwestern Ontario.

This paints a rather nuanced picture of the state of the parties. The only discernable trends are that the PC’s are excelling in their strongholds (as well as NDP strongholds) and that the NDP are faltering in their strongholds. The Liberals have an uphill battle to reclaim their previous strongholds.

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Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, April 28, 2016

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