Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, March 26, 2016

It appears that this new Forum Ontario poll slipped through my radar. My bad, folks. It appears, though, that the Progressive Conservatives remain in the lead after they shot up in the polls earlier in the year according to a previous Forum poll. They have 40%, with the Liberals in second with 27%, the NDP with 24%, and the Greens with 5%. This is a 4% decline for the Progressive Conservatives and a 2% gain for the NDP.

Last time around, my model projected 77 Progressive Conservative seats, 18 Liberal seats, 12 NDP seats, and 0 Green seats.

Here is the latest projection with my model:
Eastern Ontario: 41% Progressive Conservative (9 seats), 33% Liberal (4 seats), 19% New Democratic (1 seat), 8% Green (0 seats)
Toronto*: 39% Progressive Conservative (12 seats), 34% Liberal (7 seats), 22% New Democratic (3 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
905: 42% Progressive Conservative (23 seats), 28% Liberal (9 seats), 25% New Democratic (6 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Southwest Ontario: 42% Progressive Conservative (15 seats), 26% New Democratic (4 seats), 23% Liberal (3 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 33% Progressive Conservative (4 seats), 30% Liberal (3 seats), 29% New Democratic (4 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 40% Progressive Conservative (63 seats), 27% Liberal (26 seats), 24% New Democratic (18 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)

*The 416 and GTA numbers in the Forum poll were combined, since they were available to me.

With these numbers, it appears the slight decline for the PC’s means quite a bit to the seat projections. They are now projected to get 63 seats, which is still a majority, but it’s not the commanding majority of 77. The Liberals have bounced back, and are now projected to get 26 seats, which is still a far cry from their current 58. The NDP also bounces back to 18 projected seats, but this is still less than their current total. The Greens remain shut out.

Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, March 26, 2016

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