Performance of Seat Projection Model: Expectations vs. Reality

Well, my model did pretty well for its first election, though it certainly did not estimate everything.

Nationally:
Liberals: Predicted: 146-185 seats, Actual: 184 seats
Conservatives: Predicted: 103-116 seats, Actual: 99 seats
NDP: Predicted: 39-60 seats, Actual: 44 seats
Bloc Quebecois: Predicted: 9-18 seats, Actual: 10 seats
Greens: Predicted: 0-7 seats, Actual: 1 seat

British Columbia:
Liberals: Predicted: 8-25 seats, Actual: 17 seats
Conservatives: Predicted 9-26 seats, Actual: 10 seats
NDP: Predicted 6-11 seats, Actual: 14 seats
Greens: Predicted: 0-4 seats, Actual: 1 seat

Prairies:
Conservatives: Predicted: 43-44 seats, Actual: 44 seats
Liberals: Predicted: 13-14 seats, Actual: 12 seats
NDP: Predicted: 4-6 seats, Actual: 6 seats
Greens: Predicted: 0 seats, Actual: 0 seats

Ontario:
Liberals: Predicted: 77-82 seats, Actual: 80 seats
Conservatives: Predicted: 31-33 seats, Actual: 33 seats
NDP: Predicted: 6-12 seats, Actual: 8 seats
Greens: Predicted: 0-3 seats, Actual: 0 seats

Quebec:
Liberals: Predicted: 20-44 seats, Actual: 40 seats
NDP: Predicted: 13-35 seats, Actual: 16 seats
Conservatives: Predicted: 5-12 seats, Actual: 12 seats
Bloc Quebecois: Predicted: 9-18 seats, Actual: 10 seats
Greens: Predicted: 0-2 seats, Actual: 0 seats

Atlantic Canada:
Liberals: Predicted: 24-28 seats, Actual: 32 seats
Conservatives: Predicted: 2-5 seats, Actual: 0 seats
NDP:, Predicted: 2-3 seats, Actual: 0 seats
Greens: Predicted: 0 seats, Actual: 0 seats

In terms of predictive value, the model got within the range for 4 out of 5 parties nationally, and 16 out of 21 party results regionally. For the ones that were outside the range, they were not out of the range by far, and with 3 of the 5 regional results out of the range, it was due to an unpredictable Liberal sweep.

All and all, it was a pretty satisfying result for the model, and a pretty satisfying result of the election if I do say so myself.

Performance of Seat Projection Model: Expectations vs. Reality

Final Seat Projection for 2015 Election

It’s been an absolute roller-coaster for this federal election. This campaign went through four distinct phases in who was a contender for government. At first, it was between the NDP and the Conservatives, with the Liberals as kingmaker. Then it was a tight three-way race. Then, it was the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck. Finally, the Liberals have pulled out a huge lead.

Here is the final projection:
British Columbia: 9-26 Conservative, 8-25 Liberal, 6-11 NDP, 0-4 Green
Prairies: Nanos: 43-44 Conservative, 13-14 Liberal, 4-6 New Democratic, 0 Green
Ontario: Nanos: 77-82 Liberal, 31-33 Conservative, 6-12 New Democratic, 0-3 Green
Quebec: Nanos: 20-44 Liberal, 13-35 New Democratic, 9-18 Bloc Quebecois, 0-2 Green
Atlantic Canada: Nanos: 24-28 Liberal, 2-5 Conservative, 2-3 New Democratic, 0 Green
Total: Nanos: 146-185 Liberal, 103-116 Conservative, 39-60 New Democratic, 9-18 Bloc Quebecois, 0-7 Green

As the projection shows, if it’s right, then the Liberals will either be forming a minority or a majority government tonight. The Conservatives will be in the Official Opposition after nine years of government. The NDP will be relegated back to third party status after four years in Opposition. The Bloc Quebecois will resurge, not to its former glory days, but to a larger seat count than they have. The Greens have the potential to stay where they are or expand.

Final Seat Projection for 2015 Election

Seat Projection: Other Polls, October 15-16, 2015

In addition to Nanos and EKOS, other polls have been in the field, namely Forum, Mainstreet Research, Angus Reid, and Leger Marketing. I will put the seat projections for these polls here.

Here is the seat projection for the Forum poll*:
British Columbia: 33% Conservative (15 seats), 33% Liberal (14 seats), 30% New Democratic (13 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 52% Conservative (27 seats), 31% Liberal (5 seats), 14% New Democratic (2 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 37% Liberal (10 seats), 34% Conservative (12 seats), 27% New Democratic (6 seats), 0% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 42% Liberal (62 seats), 33% Conservative (40 seats), 23% New Democratic (19 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 29% Liberal (23 seats), 27% New Democratic (26 seats), 23% Bloc Quebecois (18 seats), 18% Conservative (11 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 52% Liberal (24 seats), 28% Conservative (6 seats), 16% New Democratic (2 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 37% Liberal (138 seats), 31% Conservative (113 seats), 24% New Democratic (69 seats), 6% Bloc Quebecois (18 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the Mainstreet Research poll*:
British Columbia: 33% Liberal (14 seats), 32% Conservative (18 seats), 24% New Democratic (8 seats), 11% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 57% Conservative (30 seats), 26% Liberal (3 seats), 13% New Democratic (1 seat), 4% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 45% Conservative (10 seats), 29% New Democratic (3 seats), 21% Liberal (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 37% Conservative (7 seats), 36% Liberal (5 seats), 19% New Democratic (2 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 44% Liberal (77 seats), 33% Conservative (32 seats), 19% New Democratic (11 seats), 4% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 32% Liberal (36 seats), 25% New Democratic (20 seats), 22% Conservative (11 seats), 17% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 4% Green (2 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 56% Liberal (27 seats), 21% New Democratic (2 seats), 19% Conservative (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 38% Liberal (163 seats), 33% Conservative (113 seats), 21% New Democratic (48 seats), 5% Green (5 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the Angus Reid poll*:
British Columbia: 32% Conservative (15 seats), 31% New Democratic (13 seats), 28% Liberal (12 seats), 9% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 58% Conservative (31 seats), 24% Liberal (3 seats), 10% New Democratic (0 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 47% Conservative (10 seats), 25% New Democratic (2 seats), 25% Liberal (2 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 47% Conservative (11 seats), 37% Liberal (3 seats), 10% New Democratic (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 43% Liberal (76 seats), 33% Conservative (32 seats), 19% New Democratic (11 seats), 4% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 31% New Democratic (34 seats), 27% Liberal (21 seats), 22% Bloc Quebecois (14 seats), 16% Conservative (8 seats), 3% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 54% Liberal (27 seats), 22% Conservative (4 seats), 14% New Democratic (1 seat), 10% Green (0 seats)
Total: 35% Liberal (144 seats), 31% Conservative (113 seats), 22% New Democratic (62 seats), 5% Bloc Quebecois (14 seats), 5% Green (5 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the Leger Marketing poll*:
British Columbia: 33% Liberal (19 seats), 28% Conservative (12 seats), 27% New Democratic (9 seats), 11% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 50% Conservative (27 seats), 30% Liberal (5 seats), 17% New Democratic (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 41% Conservative (17 seats), 34% Liberal (8 seats), 20% New Democratic (3 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 45% Liberal (77 seats), 33% Conservative (32 seats), 20% New Democratic (12 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 31% Liberal (34 seats), 25% New Democratic (20 seats), 23% Bloc Quebecois (14 seats), 20% Conservative (10 seats), 1% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 51% Liberal (25 seats), 28% New Democratic (4 seats), 19% Conservative (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 38% Liberal (168 seats), 30% Conservative (103 seats), 22% New Democratic (51 seats), 6% Bloc Quebecois (14 seats), 4% Green (2 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

Seat Projection: Other Polls, October 15-16, 2015

Seat Projections: EKOS Polls, October 14-16, 2015

Just like Nanos, EKOS has had its own daily rolling poll throughout the last week of the election. Just like Nanos, EKOS now has the Liberals leading, albeit with a smaller lead, and in the latest one, not enough to overcome the Conservative vote efficiency. In addition, the Green numbers are going down to levels comparable with other pollsters. Whether this is reflective of a change in methodology, statistical noise, or a genuine decline for the Greens remains to be seen.

Here is the seat projection for the October 14 poll*:
British Columbia: 28% Liberal (12 seats), 27% Conservative (15 seats), 27% New Democratic (11 seats), 15% Green (4 seats)
Alberta: 59% Conservative (30 seats), 23% Liberal (3 seats), 14% New Democratic (1 seat), 2% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 46% Conservative (10 seats), 31% New Democratic (3 seats), 19% Liberal (1 seat), 4% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 46% Conservative (10 seats), 40% Liberal (4 seats), 13% New Democratic (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 43% Liberal (76 seats), 33% Conservative (32 seats), 19% New Democratic (11 seats), 5% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 34% New Democratic (49 seats), 23% Conservative (12 seats), 22% Liberal (11 seats), 14% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats), 4% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 55% Liberal (27 seats), 25% Conservative (4 seats), 15% New Democratic (1 seat), 3.5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 33.5% Liberal (134 seats), 32.6% Conservative (115 seats), 22.9% New Democratic (81 seats), 5.6% Green (3 seats), 3.4% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 15 poll*:
British Columbia: 30% Liberal (13 seats), 28% New Democratic (12 seats), 27% Conservative (14 seats), 12% Green (3 seats)
Alberta: 55% Conservative (28 seats), 28% Liberal (5 seats), 14% New Democratic (1 seat), 2% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 48% Conservative (21 seats), 28% Liberal (4 seats), 20% New Democratic (3 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 41% Liberal (67 seats), 34% Conservative (41 seats), 19% New Democratic (11 seats), 4% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 30% New Democratic (40 seats), 24% Liberal (15 seats), 23% Conservative (14 seats), 14% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 6% Green (2 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 55% Liberal (26 seats), 22% Conservative (4 seats), 18% New Democratic (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 34% Liberal (130 seats), 32.8% Conservative (124 seats), 22.7% New Democratic (70 seats), 5.1% Green (7 seats), 3.4% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 16 poll*:
British Columbia: 37% Conservative (24 seats), 32% New Democratic (11 seats), 24% Liberal (7 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 50% Conservative (28 seats), 26% Liberal (4 seats), 20% New Democratic (2 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 46% Conservative (19 seats), 30% Liberal (6 seats), 20% New Democratic (3 seats), 0% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 43% Liberal (69 seats), 34% Conservative (41 seats), 18% New Democratic (11 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 26% New Democratic (28 seats), 24% Conservative (19 seats), 22% Liberal (17 seats), 20% Bloc Quebecois (12 seats), 6% Green (2 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 54% Liberal (27 seats), 22% New Democratic (2 seats), 18% Conservative (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 33.7% Liberal (130 seats), 33.3% Conservative (136 seats), 21.9% New Democratic (58 seats), 4.7% Bloc Quebecois (12 seats), 4.1% Green (2 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

Seat Projections: EKOS Polls, October 14-16, 2015

Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, October 14-16, 2015

With election season wrapping up, it appears that the Liberals, barring some major last-minute swing, are going to be forming government. The latest crop of Nanos polls confirms this.

Here is the seat projection for the October 14 poll*:
British Columbia: 31.2% Liberal (13 seats), 29.1% Conservative (14 seats), 27.4% New Democratic (12 seats), 11.9% Green (3 seats)
Prairies: 49.4% Conservative (48 seats), 27.2% Liberal (8 seats), 20.8% New Democratic (6 seats), 1.8% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 47.3% Liberal (81 seats), 30.4% Conservative (29 seats), 18.2% New Democratic (11 seats), 3.2% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 31.6% New Democratic (35 seats), 30.8% Liberal (24 seats), 20.6% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 13.5% Conservative (7 seats), 3.5% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 51.5% Liberal (25 seats), 25.3% Conservative (5 seats), 21% New Democratic (2 seats), 2.3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 37.1% Liberal (151 seats), 29.4% Conservative (105 seats), 23.7% New Democratic (67 seats), 5% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 4.3% Green (4 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 15 poll*:
British Columbia: 31.4% Liberal (13 seats), 30.3% Conservative (15 seats), 27.1% New Democratic (11 seats), 10.8% Green (3 seats)
Prairies: 47.9% Conservative (44 seats), 29.1% Liberal (12 seats), 18% New Democratic (6 seats), 3.6% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 43.5% Liberal (77 seats), 33.5% Conservative (32 seats), 19.9% New Democratic (12 seats), 2.8% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 31.3% Liberal (24 seats), 29.8% New Democratic (34 seats), 17.4% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 16.8% Conservative (9 seats), 4.7% Green (2 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 50.7% Liberal (23 seats), 24.1% New Democratic (4 seats), 21.9% Conservative (5 seats), 3.3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 36.5% Liberal (149 seats), 30.6% Conservative (107 seats), 23.5% New Democratic (68 seats), 4.7% Green (5 seats), 4.3% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 16 poll*:
British Columbia: 31.6% Liberal (13 seats), 30.6% Conservative (15 seats), 27.6% New Democratic (12 seats), 10.3% Green (2 seats)
Prairies: 49.3% Conservative (50 seats), 28.5% Liberal (9 seats), 16.7% New Democratic (3 seats), 4.6% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 45.4% Liberal (78 seats), 33.1% Conservative (32 seats), 18% New Democratic (11 seats), 2.6% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 30.9% Liberal (24 seats), 28.5% New Democratic (34 seats), 17.9% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats), 17.7% Conservative (9 seats), 4.2% Green (2 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 51.8% Liberal (25 seats), 25.7% New Democratic (4 seats), 18.8% Conservative (3 seats), 3.8% Green (0 seats)
Total: 37% Liberal (149 seats), 30.7% Conservative (111 seats), 22.6% New Democratic (65 seats), 4.7% Green (4 seats), 4.4% Bloc Quebecois (9 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

With these polls in mind, the Liberals have seemed to find the ingredients to be able to form a secure minority government. Odds are, this minority government, if comprised like this, will last a couple of years with NDP support. Some have said that this may trigger some electoral reform, but only time will tell about that.

Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, October 14-16, 2015

Seat Projections: EKOS Polls, October 10/12, 2015

EKOS has also contributed its rolling daily polls to the mix. However, they show different results from Nanos. They still have the Conservatives as neck-and-neck with the Liberals, even with the swing towards the Liberals in the October 12 poll. They don’t portray the Bloc Quebecois as a rising force, and they have the Green party slightly higher. EKOS, however, is known for having the Greens at a higher level than most other pollsters.

Here is the seat projection for their October 10 poll*:
British Columbia: 32% Liberal (13 seats), 29% Conservative (18 seats), 22% New Democratic (7 seats), 15% Green (4 seats)
Alberta: 53% Conservative (29 seats), 26% Liberal (4 seats), 12% New Democratic (1 seat), 7% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 42% Conservative (9 seats), 32% Liberal (3 seats), 22% New Democratic (2 seats), 0% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 47% Conservative (11 seats), 36% Liberal (3 seats), 14% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 39% Conservative (63 seats), 39% Liberal (47 seats), 14% New Democratic (8 seats), 7% Green (3 seats)
Quebec: 27% New Democratic (29 seats), 25% Liberal (20 seats), 24% Conservative (19 seats), 14% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 7% Green (3 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 40% Liberal (20 seats), 29% Conservative (7 seats), 24% New Democratic (5 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 35.5% Conservative (158 seats), 33.1% Liberal (110 seats), 19% New Democratic (53 seats), 7.4% Green (10 seats), 3.3% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats)

Here is the seat projection for their October 12 poll*:
British Columbia: 28% Liberal (12 seats), 25% Conservative (13 seats), 25% New Democratic (11 seats), 19% Green (6 seats)
Alberta: 58% Conservative (30 seats), 25% Liberal (3 seats), 12% New Democratic (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 53% Conservative (12 seats), 26% New Democratic (2 seats), 19% Liberal (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 49% Conservative (10 seats), 40% Liberal (4 seats), 7% New Democratic (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 43% Liberal (78 seats), 31% Conservative (30 seats), 17% New Democratic (10 seats), 7% Green (3 seats)
Quebec: 31% Liberal (24 seats), 30% New Democratic, 17% Conservative (9 seats), 14% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 5% Green (2 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 52% Liberal (25 seats), 25% Conservative (5 seats), 18% New Democratic (2 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 35.6% Liberal (146 seats), 31.1% Conservative (111 seats), 20.6% New Democratic (63 seats), 7.5% Green (11 seats), 3.2% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will keep their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

Seat Projections: EKOS Polls, October 10/12, 2015

Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, October 10-13, 2015

It appears that the Conservative dip that revealed itself in the October 9 poll has continued for the week in the latest round of Nanos polls. The NDP appears to have stabilized at 25%, which would be their second-best result if the election were held today.

Here is the seat projection for the October 10 poll*:
British Columbia: 29.3% Conservative (15 seats), 27.6% Liberal (12 seats), 26.2% New Democratic (11 seats), 14.8% Green (4 seats)
Prairies: 46% Conservative (43 seats), 29.9% Liberal (12 seats), 21.5% New Democratic (7 seats), 2.5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 42.1% Liberal (62 seats), 32.8% Conservative (40 seats), 22.3% New Democratic (18 seats), 2.9% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 32.1% New Democratic (37 seats), 28.8% Liberal (22 seats), 20.9% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 15.9% Conservative (8 seats), 1.2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 52.3% Liberal (28 seats), 20.4% New Democratic (2 seats), 15.5% Conservative (2 seats), 11.8% Green (0 seats)
Total: 35.1% Liberal (136 seats), 29% Conservative (110 seats), 25% New Democratic (76 seats), 5.2% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 5.1% Green (5 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 11 poll*:
British Columbia: 29.1% Conservative (15 seats), 28.9% Liberal (12 seats), 25% New Democratic (11 seats), 14.9% Green (4 seats)
Prairies: 47.7% Conservative (46 seats), 26.5% Liberal (8 seats), 24.2% New Democratic (8 seats), 1.7% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 45.2% Liberal (78 seats), 32.7% Conservative (32 seats), 18.2% New Democratic (11 seats), 3.3% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 32.7% New Democratic (35 seats), 28.7% Liberal (22 seats), 23.2% Bloc Quebecois (14 seats), 14% Conservative (7 seats), 0.8% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 52.9% Liberal (27 seats), 21.3% New Democratic (2 seats), 16.5% Conservative (3 seats), 9.3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 35.7% Liberal (147 seats), 28.9% Conservative (105 seats), 24.3% New Democratic (68 seats), 5.7% Bloc Quebecois (14 seats), 4.8% Green (4 seats)

Here is the seat projection for the October 13 poll*:
British Columbia: 30.5% Conservative (17 seats), 29.9% Liberal (13 seats), 24.7% New Democratic (8 seats), 13.9% Green (4 seats)
Prairies: 45.8% Conservative (47 seats), 26% New Democratic (11 seats), 25.8% Liberal (4 seats), 1.7% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 45.2% Liberal (77 seats), 32.7% Conservative (32 seats), 17.6% New Democratic (11 seats), 3.6% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 32.6% New Democratic (36 seats), 30.5% Liberal (24 seats), 21.4% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 14% Conservative (7 seats), 1.1% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 52.7% Liberal (27 seats), 21.9% New Democratic (2 seats), 21% Conservative (3 seats), 4.4% Green (0 seats)
Total: 36.1% Liberal (145 seats), 29.2% Conservative (108 seats), 24.5% New Democratic (69 seats), 5.2% Bloc Quebecois (11 seats), 4.3% Green (5 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the same parties for the sake of simplicity.

If these projections tell us anything, it’s that the Liberals are currently hitting a seat ceiling of 150. The only foreseeable way to a majority government is an NDP collapse in British Columbia and Quebec.

Seat Projections: Nanos Polls, October 10-13, 2015