The latest Leger poll detailing Quebec politics slipped me by, folks. I apologize, it’s been somewhat of a hectic couple of weeks so I am catching up now.
It shows the state of the parties as pretty similar to the last few months – the Liberals are in a narrow lead with 33%. The Parti Quebecois is trailing only slightly with 30%. The Coalition Avenir Quebec is in third with 22%. Quebec Solidaire brings up the rear with 10%.
Here is the seat projection with those numbers:
Montreal: 39% Liberal (34 seats), 26% Parti Quebecois (8 seats), 16% Coalition Avenir Quebec (4 seats), 11% Quebec Solidaire (3 seats)
Quebec City: 35% Coalition Avenir Quebec (7 seats), 25% Liberal (2 seats), 24% Parti Quebecois (2 seats), 12% Quebec Solidaire (0 seats)
Regions of Quebec: 37% Parti Quebecois (37 seats), 27% Liberal (14 seats), 25% Coalition Avenir Quebec (11 seats), 8% Quebec Solidaire (3 seats)
Total: 33% Liberal (50 seats), 30% Parti Quebecois (47 seats), 22% Coalition Avenir Quebec (22 seats), 10% Quebec Solidaire (6 seats)
With these numbers, it appears that the Liberals would narrowly hold on to power in the form of a minority government with a projected 50 seats. The PQ would get 47 seats, remaining in opposition, but even two favorable by-elections or floor crossings could swing the pendulum to them. This makes the balance of power rest at the CAQ, who would have 22 seats. Quebec Solidaire would continue their rise with a projected 6 seats.