Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, May 23, 2016

CROP has released a new poll detailing the state of Quebec politics. Much has changed since I last did a seat projection in February. Most of the change revolves around the Parti Quebecois, which is currently leaderless after the resignation of Pierre Karl Péladeau.

This has caused a massive change for its numbers. While the Liberals and Quebec Solidaire have remained largely unchanged, only going down from 36% to 34% and 12% to 11% respectively, the Parti Quebecois has fallen from 31% to 26%. This would be less startling if weren’t for the fact that this puts the PQ in third place. Coalition Avenir Quebec has rebounded from 18% to 27%, appearing to eat up the losses of the other parties.

In the last CROP poll projection, my model predicted 54 Liberal seats, 46 PQ seats, 18 CAQ seats, and 7 QS seats.

Here is the new seat projection using my model:
Montreal: 32% Liberal (14 seats), 30% Coalition Avenir Quebec (9 seats), 23% Parti Quebecois (5 seats), 10% Quebec Solidaire (1 seat)
Montreal Island: 36% Liberal (13 seats), 25% Coalition Avenir Quebec (3 seats), 24% Parti Quebecois (3 seats), 12% Quebec Solidaire (1 seat)
Quebec City: 34% Coalition Avenir Quebec (6 seats), 29% Liberal (3 seats), 28% Parti Quebecois (2 seats), 3% Quebec Solidarie (0 seats)
Regions of Quebec: 34% Liberal (33 seats), 27% Parti Quebecois (18 seats), 24% Coalition Avenir Quebec (10 seats), 13% Quebec Solidaire (4 seats)
Total: 34% Liberal (63 seats), 27% Coalition Avenir Quebec (28 seats), 26% Parti Quebecois (28 seats), 11% Quebec Solidarie (6 seats)

With these numbers, it appears that the Liberals are now projected to have a slight majority, with 63 out of 125 seats. The CAQ and PQ would be tied for opposition status with 28 seats each, which is a gain for both parties from their 2014 result, but a huge decline for the PQ from February. Quebec SOlidaire would take 6 seats, doubling their 2014 result.

Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, May 23, 2016

Seat Projection: Abacus Data Poll, May 20, 2016

It has been a month since Abacus Data was last in the field, but they just released a new poll that shows only modest movement from last month.

The Liberals have gone down from 49% to 46%, the Conservatives have gone up from 26% to 27%, the New Democrats have gone up from 13% to 15%, the Bloc Quebecois declined from 5% to 4%, and the Greens have moved up from 5% to 7%.

For the last Abacus Data poll, my model projected 241 seats for the Liberals, 72 for the Conservatives, 14 for the NDP, 8 for the Bloc Quebecois, and 3 for the Greens.

Here is the latest seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 44% Liberal (29 seats), 31% Conservative (9 seats), 13% New Democratic (2 seats), 11% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 54% Conservative (29 seats), 25% Liberal (4 seats), 12% New Democratic (1 seat), 6% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 41% Conservative (18 seats), 34% Liberal (8 seats), 15% New Democratic (2 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 49% Liberal (95 seats), 29% Conservative (18 seats), 14% New Democratic (6 seats), 7% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 50% Liberal, (66 seats) 16% New Democratic (4 seats), 15% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 13% Conservative (3 seats), 6% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 57% Liberal (28 seats), 20% New Democratic (3 seats), 13% Conservative (1 seat), 10% Green (0 seats)
Total: 46% Liberal (233 seats), 27% Conservative (78 seats), 15% New Democratic (18 seats), 7% Green (5 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the party that won them in 2015 for the sake of simplicity.

At the aggregate level, there have been only minor changes. The Liberals moved down from 241 to 233 seats, but this is still a supermajority in the House of Commons. The Conservatives have moved up in the projected seat count from 75 to 78, but this is still below 2015 levels. The NDP has moved up from 16 to 18, but this is still below half of 2015 levels. The Greens have gone up from 3 to 5, which would be a huge boon for their caucus if they could sustain that level of support. The Bloc Quebecois have seen their projected count go down from 8 to 4, which they won in 2011.

The Liberals are seeing their support rise in the East (Quebec and Atlantic Canada), but decline at various levels everywhere else (BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Ontario). This may be statistical noise, but it also may be a wakeup call for the Liberals to try to hold onto the west, especially in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, where they lost their lead.

The opposite of the Liberal movement is true for the Conservatives, who have gained in BC, Alberta, and Saskatchewan/Manitoba, held steady in Ontario, and declined in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. This is potentially a good sign for the party as the west is key to their electoral geography, but they have to become competitive in Ontario in order to have a shot at minority government status.

The NDP parallels the two major parties less – it gained in Alberta, Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, remained the same in British Columbia, but declined in Quebec. The fact that the NDP’s gains are mostly in areas where they were not already popular could be a good sign, but at this point they are miniscule. However, gains in Ontario are key possibly becoming a major contender again. It is a troubling sign, though, that they are facing declines in British Columbia and Quebec, two of their previous strongholds. They should probably look into that.

Seat Projection: Abacus Data Poll, May 20, 2016

Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid BC Poll, May 9, 2016

Ipsos Reid has released a poll detailing the state of the parties in British Columbia only four days after Insights West was in the field. It has a very different story from Insights West and even a different story from the last time it was in the field.

The Liberals are now in the lead with 42%. This is only a one point swing from Ipsos Reid’s May 2015 poll. However, the NDP has gone down from 44% support to 36%, placing it in second. Since the Liberals barely moved and the NDP has had a huge decline, odds are the change has little to do with the Liberals. Instead, it appears that the minor parties have gained from the NDP’s loss. The Conservatives have gone up 4 points to 11% and the Greens have gone up 2 points to 10%, which means that from the province-wide level it appears that the anti-Liberal vote is simply diverging.

Here is the seat projection using my model:
Vancouver: 44% Liberal (15 seats), 39% New Democratic (10 seats), 10% Conservative (0 seats), 6% Green (0 seats), 1% Independents/Others (0 seats)
Vancouver Island: 39% New Democratic (8 seats), 32% Liberal (4 seats), 25% Green (2 seats), 4% Conservative (0 seats), 0% Independents/Others (0 seats)
Rest of BC: 44% Liberal (32 seats), 28% New Democratic (9 seats), 18% Conservative (4 seats), 9% Green (1 seat), 2% Independents/Others (0 seats)
Total: 42% Liberal (51 seats), 36% New Democratic (27 seats), 11% Conservative (4 seats), 10% Green (3 seats), 1% Independents/Others (0 seats)

With these numbers, it appears that there is bad, bad news for the NDP. A year before the last election, it was in the lead with 50% and the Liberals and Conservatives looked like they were splitting second place. Even throughout the campaign the NDP was leading, and instead the Liberals won a stunning upset.

Here, the Liberals are plainly in the lead, and not just in the interior like last time. It has opened up a lead in Vancouver that it did not have before, and the party is projected to make gains in Vancouver Island, a longtime NDP stronghold. For a party that has been in power for 15 years and therefore vulnerable to the winds of change, it is a bad sign for the opposition that the incumbent is this strong.

At this point, the NDP should work hard on consolidating Vancouver and Vancouver Island at all costs. If they want a hope of even winning a minority government, this is what they have to do. What to do in the Interior is a little less clear. Depending on their resource level, they may very well be able to beat back Liberal leads in the Interior while increasing resources in the other regions. However, if they must make a choice they should abandon the Interior. It appears that quite a bit of anti-establishment vote is not going to the NDP, who may not be ideologically in line with the region, but rather to the Conservatives, who are not so ideologically opposed to the Liberals but represent a change. The Conservatives successfully taking on the Liberals in the Interior while the NDP takes on the Liberals in the cities is a gamble for the NDP, but may be well worth it.

However, there is one major obstacle for the NDP in even holding steady: the Greens in Vancouver Island. They have been doing quite well in the area, and with hard work and determination they could overtake the NDP in the region. Since the Greens and NDP are competing for the same voter base, any gain the Greens make is most likely a loss for the NDP, though they are taking small but meaningful support from disgruntled Liberals as well. Any attempt on the part of  the Greens to make gains anywhere will set the NDP back. The NDP, which still has a lot of baggage from the 1990s, has to make itself look credible in the face of an alternative that has far less dirt.

Seat Projection: Ipsos Reid BC Poll, May 9, 2016

Seat Projection: Forum Poll, May 11, 2016

Forum has come out with a new poll detailing the state of the parties in Canada, and it’s good news for the Liberals. Forum has their support pegged at 52%, which is their second highest level of support since the election (they had 55% in the immediate aftermath). The Conservatives are in a stable second with 29%, which appears to be their floor. The NDP is currently in a dismal third with 11%. The Bloc Quebecois and Greens bring up the rear with 4% and 3%, respectively.

As to the last forum poll, my model projected 244 seats for the Liberals, 75 for the Conservatives, 10 for the NDP, 9 for the Bloc Quebecois, and 0 for the Greens.

Here is the seat projection for this latest poll with my model*:
British Columbia: 43% Liberal (29 seats), 33% Conservative (9 seats), 17% New Democratic (4 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 52% Conservative (25 seats), 41% Liberal (9 seats), 4% New Democratic (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 44% Conservative (16 seats), 42% Liberal (12 seats), 10% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 54% Liberal (100 seats), 30% Conservative (18 seats), 11% New Democratic (3 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 59% Liberal (71 seats), 15% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 13% Conservative (3 seats), 9% New Democratic (1 seat), 2% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 61% Liberal (29 seats), 28% Conservative (3 seats), 8% New Democratic (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 52% Liberal (253 seats), 29% Conservative (74 seats), 11% New Democratic (8 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)

**Since Northern Canada was not polled, I left their seats with the party that won them in 2015.

With these numbers, the Liberals are currently projected to have around three quarters of the House of Commons, and would make drastic gains if the election were held today. Their totals in Ontario and Quebec alone give them a majority government. Currently, they are up from the last poll in Alberta, Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and Quebec, the same in Ontario, and down in British Columbia and Atlantic Canada. However, if they are able to stop the NDP from gaining in British Columbia and the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada, those losses will be reversed.

The Conservatives have stayed the same at the aggregate level, only dropping from 75 to 74 in the projected seat count. They have made gains in Atlantic Canada, stayed the same in British Columbia, Saskatchewan/Manitoba, and Ontario, and declined in Alberta and Quebec. Their gains and declines are both related to changing fortunes for the Liberals. Due to the overwhelming leads the Liberals have everywhere but the three Prairie provinces, there are not as many paths open for the Conservatives to coming in first. Their short term priority should be opening up a wide lead in Saskatchewan and Manitoba so that they can at least consolidate the leads they have in their safest provinces. In the long term, they should try to take back British Columbia and Ontario, and at least attempt to eat into Liberal leads in Atlantic Canada, where their 2015 sweep is unlikely to take place a second time.

The NDP, already in a pitiful state, have dropped down to single digits in the seat count with 8, which would be worse than their disastrous 1993 result. The silver lining is that they have made gains in British Columbia and held steady in Alberta, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada. They have, however, made worrying declines in Saskatchewan/Manitoba and Quebec. British Columbia may be statistical noise, but this is a key province to rebuilding their 2011 coalition. If there is a glimmer of hope, this is a good place to start. The harder part would be rebuilding their base in Quebec, where they are projected to win only one seat, down from the 16 they have currently.

The NDP have a long way to go if they even wish to replicate their 2015 result, so concentrating their forces is only one of these provinces may prove more fruitful. One fatal flaw in the NDP’s campaign strategy that undid the party was attempting to pander to both Western protest voters and Quebecers, which in many cases have diametrically opposed interests. They can either rebuild their populist base in the Prairies that have moved to the Conservatives but may look elsewhere now that the Conservatives are in opposition, or rebuild themselves in Quebec. If they can open up a lead in either of these regions, the NDP is back in play. If not, then they are doomed to third place for a while.

The Bloc Quebecois has to first concentrate on not bleeding support to any other party. However, if it will bleed support anyway, it should hope that it’s not going to any one place. Finding a way to divide the field in Quebec will net them seats in a first-past-the-post electoral system. The Greens should attempt to consolidate their support in Vancouver Island and get more than one seat, since Elizabeth May cannot carry the party’s mantle forever and a successor will need to take over eventually. It would be best for the party if this successor was an MP during that transition.

Seat Projection: Forum Poll, May 11, 2016

Seat Projection: MQO Prince Edward Island Poll, April 6, 2016

This poll also slipped by in my daily check for new polls. My bad. This one is a new opinion poll showing the state of Prince Edward Island politics.

It appears that the Liberals are wildly popular in PEI again, even in their third term of government. They currently have 69% support, which is almost 30 points higher than in the 2015 election. The Progressive Conservatives are in a distant second with only 17% support. The Greens and NDP bring up the rear with 9% and 5%, respectively.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
27 Liberal
0 Progressive Conservative
0 Green
0 New Democratic

*Since there was no regional data, I could only go with province-wide data, which may be less accurate.

With these numbers, the Liberals, if the election was held tomorrow, would be projected to find themselves not only with a fourth term, but with the entire legislature. However, I do not believe this projection is realistic, since even at their nadir, the PC’s have a couple of strongholds. Also, Peter Bevan-Baker is still quite popular in his district, so he’d likely be re-elected.

Seat Projection: MQO Prince Edward Island Poll, April 6, 2016

Seat Projection: MQO Newfoundland & Labrador Poll, April 21, 2015

Sorry, folks. Somehow, this poll escaped my radar. The first opinion poll since the Newfoundland & Labrador general election has been released. It appears that a real three-way race is forming.

The governing Liberals have 37% support, which is down from the majority they had in September 2015. The NDP, which fell to two seats in 2015, is now in second place with 31%. The Conservatives are in third with 30%, which is around the amount of support they had at that point.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
20 Liberal
10 New Democratic
10 Conservative

*Due to the lack of regional data, I had to use the provincial data at face value, which may be less accurate.

With these numbers, it appears that the Liberals would hold onto government with exactly half the seats and the NDP and Conservatives would share opposition status.

Seat Projection: MQO Newfoundland & Labrador Poll, April 21, 2015

Seat Projection: Insights West British Columbia Poll, May 5, 2016

Well folks, it’s been quiet on the polling front, especially with British Columbia. Insights West has done its first poll on British Columbia in six months. In November, the last time they were in the field, the NDP was leading the Liberals 39% to 34%. Following the two major parties were the Greens with 16%, the Conservatives with 7%, and Independents/others with 4%.

Not much has changed since then. The NDP have ticked up one point to 40%, the Liberals have stayed at 34%, the Greens have gone down 2 points to 14%, the Conservatives have gone up 3 points to 10%, and the Independents/others have gone down to 2%. Much of this variation on the aggregate level could very well be noise.

Last time around, my model projected 49 NDP seats, 25 Liberals, 8 Greens, and 3 Independents/others.

Here is the latest projection with my model:
Vancouver: 39% New Democratic (14 seats), 37% Liberal (9 seats), 13% Green (2 seats), 9% Conservative (0 seats), 2% Independent/Other (0 seats)
Vancouver Island: 52% New Democratic (13 seats), 22% Green (1 seat), 21% Liberal (0 seats), 5% Conservative (0 seats), 0% Independent/Other (0 seats)
Rest of BC: 35% Liberal (22 seats), 33% New Democratic (15 seats), 18% Conservative (6 seats), 13% Green (3 seats), 1% Independent/Other (0 seats)
Total: 40% New Democratic (42 seats), 34% Liberal (31 seats), 14% Green (6 seats), 10% Conservative (6 seats), 2% Independent/Other (0 seats)

Despite the relatively small changes at the aggregate, the NDP’s projected seat count has gone down to 42 out of 85, which almost certainly means a minority government (unless the Liberals can somehow cobble a coalition with Greens and Conservatives, which is unlikely). The Liberals have gone up almost the same amount (6 seats) to 31 seats, a healthy opposition caucus. The Green caucus has been projected to go down to 6 seats, but this is still miles ahead of the 1 seat they have. The Conservatives are now projected to enter the legislature, also with a 6 seat caucus. The Independents/Others are no longer projected to have any seats.

With these results in mind, one thing is clear: the NDP cannot rest on its progressive laurels in the cities. Having highly concentrated support gives it a boon in Vancouver Island, but much of it is swallowed by diminishing returns. The NDP also has to open up a wider lead in Vancouver. However, concentrating its support in urban areas is not enough – while it is unlikely they will open up a lead in rural BC, they have to keep the Liberals from taking as many seats as possible.

Conversely, the Liberals, if they wish to take a 5th term, need to break the NDP’s narrow lead in Vancouver and start racking up a lead. It might as well forget about Vancouver Island for the moment, which does not have much opportunity for seats. It also needs to definitively win in rural BC, which can at the very least deny the NDP a majority.

The Greens, if they are serious about increasing their presence, appear to be doing well. However, they need to eat into the NDP’s lead in Vancouver Island, where they have been in 2nd place and actually have a rather decent chance of getting a few seats.

The Conservatives, if they wish to get into the legislature and increase their presence, should probably forget about the cities for now. They can court those voters at another time. Right now, their goldmine is in Rural BC.

Seat Projection: Insights West British Columbia Poll, May 5, 2016