Seat Projection: Abacus Data Poll, May 20, 2016

It has been a month since Abacus Data was last in the field, but they just released a new poll that shows only modest movement from last month.

The Liberals have gone down from 49% to 46%, the Conservatives have gone up from 26% to 27%, the New Democrats have gone up from 13% to 15%, the Bloc Quebecois declined from 5% to 4%, and the Greens have moved up from 5% to 7%.

For the last Abacus Data poll, my model projected 241 seats for the Liberals, 72 for the Conservatives, 14 for the NDP, 8 for the Bloc Quebecois, and 3 for the Greens.

Here is the latest seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 44% Liberal (29 seats), 31% Conservative (9 seats), 13% New Democratic (2 seats), 11% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 54% Conservative (29 seats), 25% Liberal (4 seats), 12% New Democratic (1 seat), 6% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 41% Conservative (18 seats), 34% Liberal (8 seats), 15% New Democratic (2 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 49% Liberal (95 seats), 29% Conservative (18 seats), 14% New Democratic (6 seats), 7% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 50% Liberal, (66 seats) 16% New Democratic (4 seats), 15% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 13% Conservative (3 seats), 6% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 57% Liberal (28 seats), 20% New Democratic (3 seats), 13% Conservative (1 seat), 10% Green (0 seats)
Total: 46% Liberal (233 seats), 27% Conservative (78 seats), 15% New Democratic (18 seats), 7% Green (5 seats), 4% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the party that won them in 2015 for the sake of simplicity.

At the aggregate level, there have been only minor changes. The Liberals moved down from 241 to 233 seats, but this is still a supermajority in the House of Commons. The Conservatives have moved up in the projected seat count from 75 to 78, but this is still below 2015 levels. The NDP has moved up from 16 to 18, but this is still below half of 2015 levels. The Greens have gone up from 3 to 5, which would be a huge boon for their caucus if they could sustain that level of support. The Bloc Quebecois have seen their projected count go down from 8 to 4, which they won in 2011.

The Liberals are seeing their support rise in the East (Quebec and Atlantic Canada), but decline at various levels everywhere else (BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Ontario). This may be statistical noise, but it also may be a wakeup call for the Liberals to try to hold onto the west, especially in Saskatchewan/Manitoba, where they lost their lead.

The opposite of the Liberal movement is true for the Conservatives, who have gained in BC, Alberta, and Saskatchewan/Manitoba, held steady in Ontario, and declined in Quebec and Atlantic Canada. This is potentially a good sign for the party as the west is key to their electoral geography, but they have to become competitive in Ontario in order to have a shot at minority government status.

The NDP parallels the two major parties less – it gained in Alberta, Saskatchewan/Manitoba, Ontario, and Atlantic Canada, remained the same in British Columbia, but declined in Quebec. The fact that the NDP’s gains are mostly in areas where they were not already popular could be a good sign, but at this point they are miniscule. However, gains in Ontario are key possibly becoming a major contender again. It is a troubling sign, though, that they are facing declines in British Columbia and Quebec, two of their previous strongholds. They should probably look into that.

Seat Projection: Abacus Data Poll, May 20, 2016

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