Seat Projection: MQO Prince Edward Island Poll, April 6, 2016

This poll also slipped by in my daily check for new polls. My bad. This one is a new opinion poll showing the state of Prince Edward Island politics.

It appears that the Liberals are wildly popular in PEI again, even in their third term of government. They currently have 69% support, which is almost 30 points higher than in the 2015 election. The Progressive Conservatives are in a distant second with only 17% support. The Greens and NDP bring up the rear with 9% and 5%, respectively.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
27 Liberal
0 Progressive Conservative
0 Green
0 New Democratic

*Since there was no regional data, I could only go with province-wide data, which may be less accurate.

With these numbers, the Liberals, if the election was held tomorrow, would be projected to find themselves not only with a fourth term, but with the entire legislature. However, I do not believe this projection is realistic, sinceĀ even at their nadir, the PC’s have a couple of strongholds. Also, Peter Bevan-Baker is still quite popular in his district, so he’d likely be re-elected.

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Seat Projection: MQO Prince Edward Island Poll, April 6, 2016

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