Sorry, folks. Somehow, this poll escaped my radar. The first opinion poll since the Newfoundland & Labrador general election has been released. It appears that a real three-way race is forming.
The governing Liberals have 37% support, which is down from the majority they had in September 2015. The NDP, which fell to two seats in 2015, is now in second place with 31%. The Conservatives are in third with 30%, which is around the amount of support they had at that point.
Here is the seat projection using my model*:
10 New Democratic
*Due to the lack of regional data, I had to use the provincial data at face value, which may be less accurate.
With these numbers, it appears that the Liberals would hold onto government with exactly half the seats and the NDP and Conservatives would share opposition status.