Seat Projection: Mainstreet Saskatchewan Poll, March 17, 2016

Mainstreet has released a new poll dealing with the Saskatchewan provincial election, which is quickly approaching. It shows a pretty stable partisan landscape – the Saskatchewan Party is in the lead with 53%, which is considerably less than the 64% they had in 2011. However, the NDP is in second with 35%, which is only slightly more than their 32% total in 2011. Most of the SK vote likely went to the Liberals, who have rebounded since 2011 to 8%. The Greens are in fourth with 4%.

Last time around, Forum’s poll had a projection of 50 seats for the Saskatchewan Party, and 11 seats for the NDP. The Mainstreet poll had 46 SK seats and 15 NDP seats.

Here is the seat projection for this poll:
Regina: 48% Saskatchewan (8 seats), 39% New Democratic (4 seats), 7% Green (0 seats), 6% Liberal (0 seats)
Saskatoon: 55% Saskatchewan (10 seats), 39% New Democratic (4 seats), 3% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Rest of Saskatchewan: 54% Saskatchewan (29 seats), 32% New Democratic (6 seats), 11% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 53% Saskatchewan (47 seats), 35% New Democratic (14 seats), 8% Liberal (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)

The Saskatchewan Party has gained 1 projected seat since the last Mainstreet poll, and the NDP has lost 1 projected seat. However, both results leave parties with some solace. The Saskatchewan Party will return with a strong majority for a third term, enabling them to govern until at least 2020. The NDP would have its first gain in the seat count since 2003, indicating that their support is no longer in free-fall. The Liberals, though they have gained quite a bit in the popular vote, are still lagging behind in the cities. Their best bet to gain representation is to eat into major party support in rural Saskatchewan. The Greens remain shut out.

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Seat Projection: Mainstreet Saskatchewan Poll, March 17, 2016

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