Seat Projection: Mainstreet Manitoba Poll, March 21, 2016

The latest Mainstreet poll on the Manitoba election campaign reveals that on the provincial level, the partisan landscape remains quite similar compared to last week (44% Progressive Conservative, 24% New Democratic, 24% Liberal, 7% Green).

Last week’s Mainstreet poll projected 32 Progressive Conservatives, 16 NDP seats, 8 Liberal seats, and 1 Green seat.

Here is the seat projection for the poll:
Winnipeg: 33% Progressive Conservative (12 seats), 32% New Democratic (14 seats), 27% Liberal (8 seats), 8% Green (1 seat)
Not Winnipeg: 60% Progressive Conservative (20 seats), 21% Liberal (2 seats), 14% New Democratic (0 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 44% Progressive Conservative (32 seats), 24% New Democratic (14 seats), 24% Liberal (10 seats), 7% Green (1 seat)

This time around, there has been little change. The Progressive Conservatives remain projected to get 32 seats. However, the NDP has dropped 2 and the Liberals have gained 2, indicating that momentum may be swaying slightly towards the Liberals. In addition, the NDP has fallen into 2nd place amid slight gains for the Conservatives and Liberals.

The Progressive Conservatives remain firmly in 1st place, and unless any major change happens they should be forming a majority government. In order for the NDP to remain competitive for 2nd place (winning is impossible unless it gets its dismal numbers outside of Winnipeg back up), it must consolidate itself in Winnipeg and beat back both a Conservative and a Liberal takeover. If the Liberals wish to form the Opposition, they have to decisively displace the NDP as the opposition to the PC’s in the city. The Greens should continue to fight in Winnipeg if they wish to get their first seat.

Seat Projection: Mainstreet Manitoba Poll, March 21, 2016

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