Seat Projection: Forum Manitoba Poll, March 13, 2016

Forum has now entered the Manitoba provincial race with a new poll. It shows the Progressive Conservative Party in a major lead with 46%. The Liberals and NDP are in a statistical tie for second with 23% and 22%, respectively. The Greens remain in fourth place with 8%.

Here is the seat projection with those numbers:
Winnipeg: 40% Progressive Conservative (22 seats), 26% Liberal (6 seats), 25% New Democratic (7 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)
Brandon: 61% Progressive Conservative (2 seats), 20% New Democratic (0 seats), 10% Liberal (0 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Rural Manitoba: 52% Progressive Conservative (18 seats), 20% Liberal (1 seat), 18% New Democratic (1 seat), 8% Green (0 seats)
Total: 46% Progressive Conservative (42 seats), 23% Liberal (7 seats), 22% New Democratic (8 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)

With these numbers, the Progressive Conservatives would form a convincing majority government with 42 out of 57 seats. The NDP would barely survive as Official Opposition with 8 seats out of 57, and the Liberals would remain a third party, increasing their presence from 1 to 7. However, a single crossing of the floor or by-election could switch who makes up the Official Opposition.

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Seat Projection: Forum Manitoba Poll, March 13, 2016

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