A new Mainstreet poll is out today detailing the state of the parties in Manitoba. The Progressive Conservatives remain in a lead, but it is reduced from 50% to 43%. Its losses have largely gone to the NDP, who has gone up 6 points to 27%, with a few going to the Liberals, who have gone up 1 point to 24%. The Greens have also gained a point and are now at 7%.
Last time around, the Progressive Conservatives were projected to win 42 seats, with the Liberals and NDP winning 8 and 7, respectively.
Here is the seat projection for this poll:
Winnipeg: 34% New Democratic (16 seats), 32% Progressive Conservative (11 seats), 26% Liberal (7 seats), 8% Green (1 seat)
Not Winnipeg: 62% Progressive Conservative (21 seats), 19% Liberal (1 seat), 15% New Democratic (0 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 43% Progressive Conservative (32 seats), 27% New Democratic (16 seats), 24% Liberal (8 seats), 7% Green (1 seat)
With these numbers, the Progressive Conservatives would have a majority government with 32 seats, which is still a huge increase from 2011 but not as much as it was in 2015 and the early part of 2016. The NDP is in a decisive second with 16 seats, all in Winnipeg, which they now lead in. The Liberals remain at 8 seats, and the Greens are now projected to win their first seat in Winnipeg.
At this point, the chessboard for the parties is moved, and most of the fight centers on Winnipeg. For the Progressive Conservatives to win a landslide, for the NDP to have a large opposition or even possibly form a minority government, and for the Liberals to displace the NDP as official opposition, they all need to make serious inroads into Winnipeg. The PC’s probably have Winnipeg locked up for now, but if the Liberals consolidate their support, they can win a few extra seats outside of Winnipeg.