Seat Projection: Mainstreet Saskatchewan Poll, March 3, 2016

Now that the campaign is underway in Saskatchewan, Mainstreet is in the field more often. Last week, the Saskatchewan Party looked like it was going to decline in popularity until the election. However, it has bounced back, going from 52% (the lowest support they’ve had since the 2011 election) to 55%. The NDP, which was crawling upwards in support has gone down one point to 33%. The Liberals and Greens have 9% and 3%, respectively.

Last time around, my model projected 45 seats for the Saskatchewan Party, 15 for the NDP, and 1 for the Liberals.

Here is this week’s seat projection:
Regina: 47% Saskatchewan (9 seats), 37% New Democratic (3 seats), 8% Liberal (0 seats), 8% Green (0 seats)
Saskatoon: 56% Saskatchewan (11 seats), 37% New Democratic (3 seats), 6% Liberal (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Rest of Saskatchewan: 57% Saskatchewan (30 seats), 30% New Democratic (5 seats), 11% Liberal (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 55% Saskatchewan (50 seats), 33% New Democratic (11 seats), 9% Liberal (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)

These latest numbers are identical to the findings of February 16 – the Saskatchewan Party being elected to a third term in Government with 50 seats, a huge landslide, and the NDP remaining in opposition with 11 seats. The Liberals lost their projected seat, while the Greens remain shut out.

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Seat Projection: Mainstreet Saskatchewan Poll, March 3, 2016

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