Seat Projection: Mainstreet Saskatchewan Poll, February 23, 2016

Hello folks, sorry for being behind on the polling. I will do my best to catch up this morning. A new Saskatchewan poll by Mainstreet Media has come out, with the Saskatchewan Party leading still by a large margin with 52%. However, this is a loss of 4 points from last time. The NDP is at 34%, a gain of 2%. The Liberals are at 10%, also a gain of 2%. The Greens remain at 4%.

Last time around, the Saskatchewan Party was projected to have 50 seats, and the NDP 11.

Here is the seat projection for this poll:
Regina: 45% Saskatchewan (8 seats), 37% New Democratic (4 seats), 9% Liberal (0 seats), 9% Green (0 seats)
Saskatoon: 45% Saskatchewan (8 seats), 42% New Democratic (6 seats), 9% Liberal (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Rest of Saskatchewan: 57% Saskatchewan (29 seats), 30% New Democratic (5 seats), 12% Liberal (1 seat), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 52% Saskatchewan (45 seats), 34% New Democratic (15 seats), 10% Liberal (1 seat), 4% Green (0 seats)

With these numbers, the Saskatchewan Party should start to worry. It still is projected to get 75% of the seats with 45 out of 61, but they are being threatened by the NDP in both major cities. A reliance on the rural vote can get them over the hump to form government, but it would not be nearly as commanding of a presence. The NDP is projected to take 15 seats, which would increase their opposition caucus, which means Cam Broten would likely stay on as leader for another election. The Liberals would be projected to win their first seat in rural Saskatchewan.

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Seat Projection: Mainstreet Saskatchewan Poll, February 23, 2016

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