Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, February 29, 2016

Forum has come out with a new poll on the state of the parties in Ontario. For the first time, it appears as if the Progressive Conservatives have a huge lead. Since the early 21st century, they have had a problem getting past 36% support in the polls. However, they have broken it here – leading with 44%. The Liberals are in second with 27%, the NDP is in third with 22%, and the Greens bring up the rear with 6%.

Forum projects that with these numbers, the PC’s would have 44 seats, the Liberals 35, and the NDP 28, which suggests a huge incumbency advantage for Liberal MPPs.

Here is the seat projection with those numbers:
Eastern Ontario: 47% Progressive Conservative (11 seats), 28% Liberal (3 seats), 17% New Democratic (0 seats), 7% Green (0 seats)
Toronto*: 40% Progressive Conservative (12 seats), 33% Liberal (7 seats), 22% New Democratic (3 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
905: 46% Progressive Conservative (28 seats), 24% Liberal (6 seats), 22% New Democratic (4 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Southwest Ontario: 42% Progressive Conservative (16 seats), 26% New Democratic (4 seats), 22% Liberal (2 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 51% Progressive Conservative (10 seats), 21% Liberal (0 seats), 20% New Democratic (1 seat), 8% Green (0 seats)
Total: 44% Progressive Conservative (77 seats), 27% Liberal (18 seats), 22% New Democratic (12 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)

*The 416 and GTA numbers in the Forum poll were combined, since they were available to me.

Note, the number of seats will likely increase by the next election, since Ontario has 121 seats federally and provincial districts are now identical to federal districts.

With these numbers, the Progressive Conservatives would form government with a huge landslide, taking 77 out of 107 seats. The Liberals would form a rump caucus of 18 seats. The NDP, despite having a similar level of support to 2014, would take 12 seats simply due to the Progressive Conservative rise. The Greens would remain shut out of the legislature.

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Seat Projection: Forum Ontario Poll, February 29, 2016

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