Seat Projection: Mainstreet Ontario Poll, February 22, 2016

Now that the honeymoon for the Liberals in Ontario is over, party support levels have stabilized into a three-way race. The Progressive Conservatives are in the lead with 36%, par for the course for most of the period since the 2014 election. The Liberals, despite Premier Kathleen Wynne only having 29% approval, take the support of 33% of decided voters. Andrea Horwath’s NDP has 26% support. The Greens bring up the rear with 5%.

Here is the seat projection using my model:
Eastern Ontario: 38% Progressive Conservative (5 seats), 34% Liberal (7 seats), 22% New Democratic (2 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Toronto*: 37% Liberal (11 seats), 34% Progressive Conservative (7 seats), 24% New Democratic (4 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
905: 34% Liberal (16 seats), 32% Progressive Conservative (12 seats), 28% New Democratic (9 seats), 6% Green (1 seat)
Southwest Ontario: 40% Progressive Conservative (14 seats), 30% New Democratic (4 seats), 24% Liberal (4 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Northern Ontario: 36% Progressive Conservative (6 seats), 33% Liberal (3 seats), 26% New Democratic (2 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 36% Progressive Conservative (44 seats), 33% Liberal (41 seats), 26% New Democratic (21 seats), 5% Green (1 seat)

*The 416 and GTA numbers in this poll were combined, since the numbers were available to me.

With these numbers, the Progresssive Conservatives would be projected to have a plurality with 44 out of 107 seats. The Liberals, despite being 3 points behind, only are behind by 3 seats. The NDP would stay at its current number of seats. The Greens would pick up their first seat in the 905 region.

At this point, two scenarios become plausible – either the Progressive Conservatives form a minority government (possibly propped up by the NDP in an anti-Liberal coalition), or the NDP props up a Liberal government to keep the PC’s out another term.

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Seat Projection: Mainstreet Ontario Poll, February 22, 2016

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