Seat Projection: Forum Poll, February 18, 2016

It appears that Justin Trudeau’s honeymoon is continuing. In the latest Forum poll, the Liberals have the support of around 1 in 2 decided voters with 49%. The Conservatives are in a distant second with 32%. In an usually distant third are the NDP, with only 10% support. Bringing up the rear are the Greens with 5% and Bloc Quebecois with 3%.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 48% Liberal (31 seats), 33% Conservative (9 seats), 14% New Democratic (2 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Alberta: 60% Conservative (31 seats), 26% Liberal (3 seats), 7% New Democratic (0 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 42% Liberal (12 seats), 40% Conservative (14 seats), 12% New Democratic (2 seats), 6% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 51% Liberal (89 seats), 35% Conservative (28 seats), 8% New Democratic (2 seats), 5% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 54% Liberal (69 seats), 17% Conservative (4 seats), 13% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats), 11% New Democratic (2 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 69% Liberal (31 seats), 19% Conservative (1 seat), 10% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 49% Liberal (238 seats), 32% Conservative (87 seats), 10% New Democratic (8 seats), 5% Green (2 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the party that won them.

With these numbers, the Liberals are winning by a huge landslide, projected to take 238 of the 338 seats in the House of Commons. The Conservatives would take a slightly reduced Opposition role with 87 seats. The NDP would be decimated to 18% of their current size with 8 seats. The Bloc would be reduced to its 2011-level preference, and the Greens would double their caucus to 2 seats.

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Seat Projection: Forum Poll, February 18, 2016

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