Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, February 18, 2016

Philippe Couilliard’s Liberals appear to be holding steady, if CROP’s latest poll is any indication. They are currently in the lead with 36%. Pierre Karl Peladeau’s Parti Quebecois is in second with 31%. Francois Legault’s CAQ is in a distant third with 18%. Bringing up the rear are Quebec Solidaire with 12%, a significant rise from their 2014 result.

Here is my seat projection using those numbers:
Montreal: 40% Liberal (30 seats), 32% Parti Quebecois (13 seats), 15% Coalition Avenir Quebec (3 seats), 12% Quebec Solidaire (3 seats)
Quebec City: 34% Coalition Avenir Quebec (7 seats), 27% Liberal (2 seats), 24% Parti Quebecois (2 seats), 12% Quebec Solidaire (0 seats)
Regions of Quebec: 33% Liberal (22 seats), 31% Parti Quebecois (31 seats), 19% Coalition Avenir Quebec (8 seats), 12% Quebec Solidaire (4 seats)
Total: 36% Liberal (54 seats), 31% Parti Quebecois (46 seats), 18% Coalition Avenir Quebec (18 seats), 12% Quebec Solidaire (7 seats)

With these numbers, though, the Liberals may have something to worry about. Taking 5% less than they did in the election is enough to bring them to minority government status. The PQ, despite being 5 points behind, would be only 8 seats behind. The CAQ would drop from 20 to 18 seats, indicating that despite losing 5% support, it has minimal effect. QS would more than double their caucus to 7 seats.

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Seat Projection: CROP Quebec Poll, February 18, 2016

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