In the latest Mainstreet poll of Manitoba politics, The Progressive Conservatives are keeping a wide lead as the Manitoba election approaches, taking in 52% support among decided and leaning voters. Right now, it is a battle for second for the NDP and Liberals, taking 21% and 20%, respectively. The Greens are in fourth with 7%.
Here is my seat projection with those numbers:
Winnipeg: 45% Progressive Conservative (24 seats), 25% New Democratic (6 seats), 21% Liberal (4 seats), 9% Green (1 seat)
Not Winnipeg: 62% Progressive Conservative (21 seats), 19% New Democratic (1 seat), 15% Liberal (0 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 52% Progressive Conservative (45 seats), 21% New Democratic (7 seats), 20% Liberal (4 seats), 7% Green (1 seat)
With these numbers, the Progressive Conservatives would have 45 out of 57 seats, a landslide, but slightly reduced from last time, where they had 47. Those two seats have been picked up by the NDP, who is in a distant Official Opposition with 7 seats (particularly striking since they are a governing party). The Liberals would increase their caucus to 4 seats. The Greens would win their first seat.