Seat Projection: Mainstreet Saskatchewan Poll, February 11, 2016

The election campaign is underway in Saskatchewan, and in many ways, the partisan landscape looks the same as last year – the Saskatchewan Party dominating the polls and the NDP languishing in second.

The Saskatchewan Party has 56% support, on par with Brad Wall’s approval ratings. Cam Broten’s NDP is in second with 32%. The Liberals are in a solid third with 8%. Bringing up the rear are the Greens with 4%.

Here is the seat projection using those numbers:
Regina: 48% Saskatchewan (9 seats), 36% New Democratic (3 seats), 9% Green (0 seats), 8% Liberal (0 seats)
Saskatoon: 48% Saskatchewan (9 seats), 41% New Democratic (5 seats), 8% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Rest of Saskatchewan: 61% Saskatchewan (32 seats), 28% New Democratic (3 seats), 9% Liberal (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 56% Saskatchewan (50 seats), 32% New Democratic (11 seats), 8% Liberal (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)

With these results, the Saskatchewan Party is going to win by a landslide in the seat count, taking 50 out of 61 seats. The NDP will remain in Opposition with 11 seats. The Liberals, despite being nearly at 10% in every region, fail to win a seat. The Greens also fail to win a seat.

At this point, the Saskatchewan Party, as an incumbent with widespread support, has to simply consolidate the existing support that it has. The NDP has to break through in Saskatoon and Regina if it wishes to have an increased Opposition, and eat into the Saskatchewan Party’s lead in the rural areas if it wants a shot at a minority government. The Liberals have to consolidate their support in any region as a way to gain representation in the legislature, and the Greens have to consolidate their support in Regina.

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Seat Projection: Mainstreet Saskatchewan Poll, February 11, 2016

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