With all the talk about the Saskatchewan and Manitoba elections coming up this year, there has been comparatively little attention to the Yukon. In fact, Mainstreet Research’s poll recently done there is the first since the 2011 election campaign.
In the 2011 election, the Yukon Party got 40% and 11 seats, the NDP got 33% and 6 seats, and the Liberals got 25% and 2 seats. Due to a Liberal crossing the floor to the Yukon Party, the Yukon Party now has 12 seats and the Liberals have one.
However, it appears that the Liberals and the Yukon Party are switching places in the polls. The Liberals under Sandy Silver have 52%. The NDP under Elizabeth Hanson has largely kept its support at 2011 levels with 31%. The Yukon Party is now in a distant third at 17%, indicating a highly unpopular incumbent government.
With those numbers, my algorithm predicts that the Liberals would win 14 out of 19 seats, a huge landslide. To put this in perspective, over two thirds of the entire Yukon legislature would be filled with newly elected members. The NDP, despite retaining the same support, would see their caucus cut in half to 3 seats. This is due to the Liberal landslide victory, which was larger than the Yukon Party’s victory in 2011. The Yukon Party would retain a rump caucus of 2 seats.
However, as the poll shows, 61% of voters are still undecided. Therefore, the election can go anywhere.