Seat Projection: Leger Marketing Poll, February 4, 2016

The first February poll of the federal landscape has now been released by Leger Marketing.

Over the last couple of months, the Liberals have retained their landslide, though their projected seat counts frequently fell out of majority territory. Popular vote-wise, the Liberals are doing quite well in this poll at 49%. The Conservatives are in a distant second at 27%. The NDP is still in third at 15%, not recovering after a huge loss in the 2015 election. The Greens and Bloc Quebecois bring up the rear with 5% and 3%, respectively.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 45% Liberal (32 seats), 24% New Democratic (5 seats), 21% Conservative (4 seats), 9% Green (1 seat)
Alberta: 55% Conservative (29 seats), 32% Liberal (5 seats), 7% New Democratic (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 43% Liberal (12 seats), 39% Conservative (15 seats), 12% New Democratic (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 50% Liberal (95 seats), 29% Conservative (18 seats), 14% New Democratic (6 seats), 6% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 49% Liberal (66 seats), 17% New Democratic (4 seats), 15% Conservative (4 seats), 15% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 75% Liberal (32 seats), 13% Conservative (0 seats), 9% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 49% Liberal (245 seats), 27% Conservative (70 seats), 15% New Democratic (16 seats), 5% Green (3 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (4 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the parties that won them in 2015 for the sake of simplicity.

With these numbers, the Liberals have come back healthily into supermajority territory, taking 72% of the seats. The Conservatives would have a reduced opposition, but remain in second. The NDP would see its caucus reduced to 36% of its former size. The Greens would increase their caucus from 1 to 3 seats. The Bloc Quebecois would see themselves going down to their 2011 total.

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Seat Projection: Leger Marketing Poll, February 4, 2016

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