Seat Projection: EKOS Poll, January 18, 2016

EKOS has put out a new poll this evening indicating the continued popularity of Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government. The Liberals are currently in a wide lead with 46.7%, over 20 points ahead of the Conservatives, with 25.3%. Tom Mulcair’s NDP is in third with 15.9%. The Greens are at 7%, which is par for the course for an EKOS poll. The Bloc Quebecois brings up the rear with 3.9%. It should be noted that none of these figures represent changes from last month outside of the margin of error.

In December’s EKOS poll, my model showed the Liberals getting 235 seats (a supermajority), the Conservatives with 72, the NDP with 19, and the Greens and BQ with 6 each.

Here is the seat projection for this month’s poll*:
British Columbia: 41.5% Liberal (28 seats), 24.9% New Democratic (7 seats), 19% Conservative (4 seats), 12.3% Green (3 seats)
Alberta: 50.2% Conservative (25 seats), 34.5% Liberal (8 seats), 12.3% New Democratic (1 seat), 2.8% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan: 39.2% Conservative (9 seats), 28.7% Liberal (3 seats), 22.7% New Democratic (2 seats), 7.8% Green (0 seats)
Manitoba: 60.7% Liberal (14 seats), 20.1% Conservative (0 seats), 12.7% New Democratic (0 seats), 6.5% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 51.1% Liberal (97 seats), 26.5% Conservative (16 seats), 14.6% New Democratic (6 seats), 7.1% Green (2 seats)
Quebec: 44.1% Liberal (60 seats), 18.7% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 16.6% New Democratic (6 seats), 14.1% Conservative (4 seats), 5.2% Green (1 seat)
Atlantic Canada: 57.9% Liberal (29 seats), 24.4% Conservative (3 seats), 8.3% Green (0 seats), 8.1% New Democratic (0 seats)
Total: 46.7% Liberal (242 seats), 25.3% Conservative (61 seats), 15.9% New Democratic (22 seats), 7% Green (6 seats), 3.9% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the party that won them in 2015.

Little movements in the polls do, however, turn out to be significant. The Liberals increase their standing from 235 prospective seats to 242. The Conservatives would lose 11 seats from last month, standing at 61. The NDP would gain 3 projected seats. The Bloc Quebecois would gain a seat. The Greens would remain at 6 seats. Overall, though, this still appears to be a Liberal’s Canada.

The strategies that parties could really use to change their standings are limited. The Liberals have to consolidate the great gains they have made, and they will undoubtedly lose at least part of this high level of support. The trick will be to not let more than the standard amount of loss of support happen. The Conservatives have to consolidate in the Prairies and become more competitive in Ontario in order to even get close to winning the Prime Minister’s office again. The NDP has to reassert itself in British Columbia and Quebec. The Greens have to expand out of British Columbia. The Bloc Quebecois has to expand its support in the Regions of Quebec.

Seat Projection: EKOS Poll, January 18, 2016

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