Seat Projection: CROP Federal Quebec Poll, January 18, 2016

CROP has also released a poll the state of the Quebec public when it comes to the next federal election. Within the province, the Liberals are dominating by a wide margin with 51%. This is a huge spike from the 36% they received in the election, which gave them a landslide. This comes at the expense of almost all other parties – the NDP has dipped from 25% to 21%, the Conservatives have dipped from 18% to 12%, and the Bloc Quebecois has dipped from 19% to 11%. The Greens are the only other party to make gains, going from 2% to 4%.

Here is the seat projection using my model:
Montreal: 56% Liberal (20 seats), 21% New Democratic (2 seats), 10% Bloc Quebecois (0 seats), 8% Conservative (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Quebec City: 41% Liberal (5 seats), 22% New Democratic (0 seats), 21% Conservative (0 seats), 9% Bloc Quebecois (0 seats, 7% Green (0 seats)
Regions of Quebec: 48% Liberal (39 seats), 21% New Democratic (5 seats), 15% Conservative (3 seats), 12% Bloc Quebecois (2 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Total: 51% Liberal (66 seats), 21% New Democratic (7 seats), 12% Conservative (3 seats), 11% Bloc Quebecois (2 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)

If a new federal election were held tomorrow, the Liberals would command a huge landslide in the seat count with 66 out of 78 possible seats, a huge leap from 40. The NDP would backslide from 16 to 7 seats. The Conservatives would nearly implode declining from 12 seats to 3. The Bloc Quebecois would only be able to hold on to 2 of its seats. The Greens would remain shut out of the Quebec delegation to the House of Commons.

Over the next four years, the Liberals have to make sure to consolidate their gains, and all will be well. The NDP has uniform support across the province, which means they have a base to build from everywhere, but it also does not translate into many seats. At the very least, they have to be competitive in Montreal or the Regions (preferably both) in order to be competitive again. The Conservatives would have to make inroads into Quebec City and the Regions again to be competitive. The Bloc has to reassert itself in the Regions, where it gained many of its seats. The Greens have to break through somewhere, but at this point, it could be anywhere.

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Seat Projection: CROP Federal Quebec Poll, January 18, 2016

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