Seat Projection: Mainstreet Research Poll, January 15, 2016

The second national poll has come out, and Mainstreet Research was the firm that surveyed the field. It basically confirms what other firms have found. The Liberals are in a wide lead with 44%, the Conservatives are in second with 32%, the NDP is in third with 16%, the Greens are at 5%, and the Bloc Quebecois is at 3%.

Here is the seat projection using my model*:
British Columbia: 37% Liberal (24 seats), 28% Conservative (9 seats), 18% New Democratic (5 seats), 17% Green (4 seats)
Alberta: 54% Conservative (28 seats), 33% Liberal (6 seats), 10% New Democratic (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 43% Liberal (12 seats), 41% Conservative (15 seats), 13% New Democratic (1 seat), 4% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 50% Liberal (89 seats), 32% Conservative (26 seats), 15% New Democratic (6 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Quebec: 41% Liberal (50 seats), 23% New Democratic (12 seats), 22% Conservative (11 seats), 12% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 49% Liberal (24 seats), 33% Conservative (7 seats), 14% New Democratic (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 44% Liberal (208 seats), 32% Conservative (96 seats), 16% New Democratic (25 seats), 5% Green (4 seats), 3% Bloc Quebecois (5 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the parties that won them in 2015 for the sake of simplicity.

With these numbers in mind, the Liberals would retain a large majority with 208 out of 338 seats, an increase of 24 from their current standings. The Conservatives would remain largely where they are with 96 seats. The NDP would lose the most ground to the Liberals with 25 seats. The Greens would quadruple their caucus to 4 seats. The Bloc Quebecois would see their caucus cut in half with 5 seats.

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Seat Projection: Mainstreet Research Poll, January 15, 2016

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