Seat Projection: Abacus Data Poll, January 12, 2016

It’s been a month since the last poll showing current party standings at the federal level. The most recent one has been released by Abacus Data. The Liberals under Trudeau have so far not really budged – they remain in a wide lead at 45%. The Conservatives under interim leader Rona Ambrose are in a distant second with 28%. Tom Mulcair’s NDP is right around where it was in the election with 17%. The Greens and Bloc Quebecois bring up the rear with 5% each.

Here is the seat projection for this poll using my model*:
British Columbia: 43% Liberal (31 seats), 23% Conservative (5 seats), 21% New Democratic (4 seats), 11% Green (2 seats)
Alberta: 52% Conservative (29 seats), 29% Liberal (5 seats), 11% New Democratic (0 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba: 51% Conservative (24 seats), 30% Liberal (4 seats), 14% New Democratic (0 seats), 4% Green (0 seats)
Ontario: 45% Liberal (83 seats), 34% Conservative (27 seats), 16% New Democratic (10 seats), 4% Green (1 seat)
Quebec: 46% Liberal (60 seats), 19% New Democratic (7 seats), 17% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 14% Conservative (4 seats), 3% Green (0 seats)
Atlantic Canada: 64% Liberal (30 seats), 16% New Democratic (1 seat), 15% Conservative (1 seat), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 45% Liberal (216 seats), 28% Conservative (90 seats), 17% New Democratic (22 seats), 5% Bloc Quebecois (7 seats), 5% Green (3 seats)

*Since Northern Canada was not polled, I will leave their seats with the parties that won them in 2015 for the sake of simplicity.

With these numbers, the Liberals would fall out of supermajority territory but still have a commanding majority with 216 out of 338 seats. The Conservatives would fall in the seat count slightly to 90. The NDP, despite only being slightly less popular than on election day, would find their caucus cut exactly in half due to the wide Liberal lead. The Bloc Quebecois would be slightly reduced to 7 seats. The Greens would triple their caucus to 3 seats.

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Seat Projection: Abacus Data Poll, January 12, 2016

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