Mainstreet Technologies has been quite active as of late within western Canadian provincial politics, and this most recent poll they have put out brings them to Manitoba. In a recent poll put out by Insightrix, the Progressive Conservatives remained in the lead (as they have been for some time) with 39%, but with the Liberals nipping at their heels with 36%, and the NDP at a distant 19%. However, since I have not tracked down complete regional data, I have not been able to do that poll.
This most recent poll by Mainstreet confirms the Liberal move into 2nd place, but not by the same decisive margin. The poll peg’s Brian Pallister’s Progressive Conservatives at 44%, with the Liberals in a distant second at 27%, the NDP at 23%, and the Greens at 6%. This puts the Liberals and NDP in a statistical tie.
Here is the seat projection using my model:
Winnipeg: 37% Progressive Conservative (15 seats), 28% New Democratic (9 seats), 27% Liberal (6 seats), 8% Green (1 seat)
Not Winnipeg: 55% Progressive Conservative (22 seats), 29% Liberal (4 seats), 14% New Democratic (0 seats), 2% Green (0 seats)
Total: 44% Progressive Conservative (37 seats), 27% Liberal (10 seats), 23% New Democratic (9 seats), 6% Green (1 seat)
With these numbers, my model predicts that the Progressive Conservatives would handily win by a landslide with a majority government, taking 37 out of the 57 available seats. The Liberals have an efficient enough vote to be placed in the Official Opposition for the first time since 1990. The governing NDP would be reduced to 3rd place similarly to the last time they lost government, but one by-election could switch 2nd and 3rd place. They would also be wiped out of the province outside of Winnipeg, not a good sign for them considering they are not anywhere close to taking the lion’s share of the vote within Winnipeg. The division within Winnipeg gives the Greens the opportunity to take their first seat, but they remain a non-factor outside of the city.