Hello, folks, and happy belated new year to all of you! Projection Time has two likely elections ahead of it this year, both in the west: Saskatchewan in Manitoba. The latest Mainstreet Research Poll covers Saskatchewan. Premier Brad Wall and the Saskatchewan Party have remained highly popular over the years, an anomaly among premiers in Canada.
This poll is no different. The Saskatchewan Party has the support of 59% of the electorate, only a slight drop from the 64% they had in 2011. The New Democrats have 28%, also a slight drop from 2011. The Liberals have benefitted from the losses of both parties, climbing to 7% and claiming third place. Bringing up the rear are the Greens at 3% and the Progressive Conservatives at 2%.
In the 2011 election, the Saskatchewan Party won 49 seats, and the NDP won 9.
Here is the seat projection for the poll*:
Regina: 49.4% Saskatchewan (9 seats), 33.7% New Democratic (3 seats), 9.6% Green (0 seats), 6% Liberal (0 seats), 1.3% Progressive Conservative (0 seats)
Saskatoon: 51.9% Saskatchewan (11 seats), 37% New Democratic (3 seats), 4.9% Liberal (0 seats), 3.7% Progressive Conservative (0 seats), 2.5% Green (0 seats)
Rest of Saskatchewan: 65.9% Saskatchewan (33 seats), 22.7% New Democratic (2 seats), 9.1% Liberal (0 seats), 1.2% Green (0 seats), 1.1% Progressive Conservative (0 seats)
Total: 59% Saskatchewan (53 seats), 28% New Democratic (8 seats), 7% Liberal (0 seats), 3% Green (0 seats), 2% Progressive Conservative (0 seats)
*The Saskatchewan legislature will enlarge to 61 seats after the election, and this model takes the new seats into account.
With these results in mind, the Saskatchewan Party’s share of the seats in the legislature would actually increase from 84% to 86% despite losing the popular vote. This is very much due to the inefficiency of the NDP vote as well as the Liberal vote, which is only a factor outside of the major cities, where the Saskatchewan Party dominates. So far, things are looking very good for Brad Wall and his party to govern until at least 2020.