Seat Projection: Probe Manitoba Poll, December 19, 2015

Let me start off this post by saying that I hope everybody had a wonderful Festivus, Christmas and Boxing Day. I have been gifted with a new Probe Research poll coming out of Manitoba showing an interesting trend. The NDP, which has been in government since 1999, is almost certain to see its tenure in government end in 2016.

Last time, Probe showed the Progressive Conservatives in first by a landslide with 45%. Statistically tied in second place were the NDP and Liberals with 25% and 24% each, respectively. The Greens had 5%. This resulted in a seat projection of 32 Progressive Conservatives, 16 NDP, and 9 Liberals, with the Greens shut out.

Now, Probe shows the Progressive Conservatives have dipped slightly to 43%. The Liberals have catapulted into a clear second place with 29% (a little over 3.5 times their support in 2011). The governing NDP has taken a nose-dive to 22%. The Greens are now at 6%.

Here is the seat projection for this poll:
Winnipeg: 35% Progressive Conservative (16 seats), 29% New Democratic (11 seats), 29% Liberal (9 seats), 7% Green (1 seat)
Not Winnipeg: 53% Progressive Conservative (17 seats), 29% Liberal (3 seats), 13% New Democratic (0 seats), 5% Green (0 seats)
Total: 43% Progressive Conservative (33 seats), 29% Liberal (12 seats), 22% New Democratic (11 seats), 6% Green (1 seat)

The Progressive Conservatives may have dropped slightly, but due to the quirks of the First-Past-the-Post Sytem, they increase to 33 seats. The Liberals are now projected to be the new Opposition with 12 seats. The NDP is projected to be in a close third in the seat count with 11. The Greens are also projected to pick up their first seat.

However, we are still a few months out from the election, and much can happen in this time.

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Seat Projection: Probe Manitoba Poll, December 19, 2015

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